Warming US-Pakistan ties may temper India’s ‘muscular’ counter-terror response—American ex-envoy Juster

A former US Ambassador to India, speaking at the Hudson Institute in Washington, cautioned that improving US-Pakistan diplomatic relations could constrain Ne...

What Happened

A former US Ambassador to India, speaking at the Hudson Institute in Washington, cautioned that improving US-Pakistan diplomatic relations could constrain New Delhi's future cross-border counter-terrorism responses.
He assessed that a warming Washington-Islamabad relationship may lead India to "limit its response to the next significant cross-border terrorist incident," given uncertainty over American backing.
China was identified as the biggest strategic threat to India, with Beijing's close partnership with Islamabad complicating India's security calculus.
India was noted as increasingly asserting itself as a civilizational power with concrete targets — becoming a developed nation by 2047 and positioning itself as a voice for the Global South.
India's hesitation to join major trade frameworks such as the RCEP and CPTPP was flagged as a risk to its aspirations of becoming a global supply chain hub.

Static Topic Bridges

India's Counter-Terrorism Doctrine and the Right of Self-Defence

India has evolved a doctrine of proportionate cross-border military response to state-sponsored terrorism, anchored in the international law principle of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Article 51 permits a member state to act in individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs, until the UN Security Council takes measures to maintain international peace. India has additionally invoked the "unwilling or unable" doctrine — which holds that a state may use force on another state's territory if that state is unwilling or unable to suppress non-state armed groups launching attacks across the border. Operations such as the 2016 surgical strikes and the 2019 Balakot airstrikes have been explained within this framework.

Article 51 of the UN Charter is the primary legal basis for state self-defence in international law.
The "unwilling or unable" doctrine remains contested in international law but has been increasingly cited by states including the US in counter-terrorism contexts.
India's responses have been characterised by the combination of proportionality, deniability, and diplomatic messaging.
FATF (Financial Action Task Force) has been used alongside military pressure as a diplomatic tool to impose costs on state sponsors of terrorism.

Connection to this news: Whether the US provides diplomatic cover or signals restraint to India directly shapes the cost-benefit calculus New Delhi undertakes before authorising cross-border counter-terrorism operations.

FATF as a Counter-Terrorism Diplomatic Tool

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is an inter-governmental body established in 1989 that sets international standards to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. India has used FATF processes to build international pressure on Pakistan by documenting its support for designated terrorist organisations. Pakistan was placed on the FATF "grey list" (Enhanced Monitoring) in 2018, removed in 2022 after implementing FATF action plans, and this cycle itself illustrates the leverage and limits of multilateral pressure mechanisms.

FATF membership: 39 members (37 jurisdictions + European Commission + Gulf Cooperation Council).
"Grey list" = Jurisdictions Under Increased Monitoring; "Black list" = High-Risk Jurisdictions Subject to a Call for Action.
Pakistan was grey-listed in 2018 and removed in October 2022 after meeting 34 action points.
FATF decisions require political consensus, making them susceptible to great-power dynamics including the US-China dynamic.

Connection to this news: If US-Pakistan ties warm significantly, US willingness to support India's FATF-based pressure narratives could weaken, limiting a key non-military lever India has used against cross-border terrorism.

India's Strategic Autonomy and Multilateral Positioning

India pursues "strategic autonomy" — a foreign policy doctrine that avoids permanent alliance commitments and preserves freedom of manoeuvre across competing power blocs. This posture is institutionally expressed through India's active participation in groupings such as the Quad, SCO, BRICS, and the G20, enabling engagement with both Western and non-Western partners simultaneously. The India-US relationship is built partly around shared threat perceptions of China and terrorism, but divergences — as on Pakistan — are embedded within it.

India's foreign policy doctrine of strategic autonomy dates to the Nehruvian tradition of non-alignment, updated for a multipolar world.
The Quad (India, US, Australia, Japan) is primarily oriented toward Indo-Pacific security, with counter-terrorism not its core mandate.
India is the only state that is a member of both the Quad and the SCO (which includes Pakistan and China).
India has stayed outside RCEP (signed in 2020 by 15 Asia-Pacific nations) citing concerns over trade deficits, particularly with China.

Connection to this news: A US tilt toward Pakistan for strategic purposes (such as managing Afghanistan or hedging against China) is not unprecedented, and India's strategic autonomy doctrine is precisely calibrated to avoid over-dependence on any single partner's security guarantees.

Key Facts & Data

Hudson Institute is a Washington-based think tank focused on US foreign policy and national security.
Article 51 of the UN Charter preserves the "inherent right" of individual or collective self-defence against armed attack.
FATF was established in 1989 by the G7 Summit in Paris; India became a full member in 2010.
Pakistan was on the FATF grey list from 2018 to October 2022.
RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) was signed in November 2020 by 15 countries, accounting for approximately 30% of global GDP — India did not join.
India aims to become a "Viksit Bharat" (Developed India) by 2047, the centenary of independence.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — part of China's Belt and Road Initiative — is valued at approximately USD 62 billion and runs through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.