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Economics April 24, 2026 4 min read Daily brief · #21 of 25

India's wheat output likely at 110-120 mn ton in 2025-26 amid weather damage, says Food Secy

India's wheat production for the 2025-26 crop year is projected to come in between 110 and 120 million tonnes, a revision downward from the agriculture minis...

GS Paper 3 (Agriculture Food Security Economy)

What Happened

  • India's wheat production for the 2025-26 crop year is projected to come in between 110 and 120 million tonnes, a revision downward from the agriculture ministry's earlier advance estimate of 120.21 million tonnes.
  • Unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms struck key wheat-growing states — primarily Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh — just before harvest, causing crop damage through shrivelling, lodging, and reduced grain quality.
  • The government responded by hiking the wheat procurement target by approximately 15 percent, raising it to 34.5 million tonnes for the 2025-26 rabi marketing season, up from a previously planned 30 million tonnes.
  • Farm-gate prices in mandi markets have remained below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of ₹2,585 per quintal in several states, reflecting surplus supply in some pockets alongside the crop damage situation — a signal that procurement expansion is both welfare-driven and stock-building.
  • Quality norms for procurement have been relaxed in Punjab: FCI will now accept wheat with up to 15–20 percent shrivelled and broken grains and up to 70 percent lustre loss without any reduction in the MSP payout.
  • Despite crop damage, wheat exports remain permitted, though actual shipments are slow amid international price dynamics and logistical bottlenecks.
  • In the first fortnight of April 2026, procurement volumes fell 69 percent compared to the same period in 2025, due to quality concerns — a decline that the relaxed norms are intended to offset.
  • An independent industry survey projects all-India wheat production at approximately 110.65 million tonnes, slightly above the 109.63 million tonnes of 2024-25, suggesting the damage is significant but not catastrophic.

Static Topic Bridges

Minimum Support Price (MSP) and CACP's Role

The MSP is the floor price at which the government commits to purchase notified crops from farmers, insulating them against market price volatility. MSPs for 23 crops (22 mandated crops plus sugarcane's Fair and Remunerative Price) are recommended by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) — a statutory advisory body under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.

  • CACP considers three cost structures: A2 (paid-out costs), A2+FL (including imputed value of family labour), and C2 (comprehensive cost including imputed rent and capital interest on owned land and assets).
  • Government policy mandates MSP to be at least 50 percent above the A2+FL cost.
  • The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) gives final approval to MSP recommendations.
  • The current wheat MSP for the 2025-26 rabi marketing season is ₹2,585 per quintal.

Connection to this news: When farm-gate mandi prices fall below MSP — as is happening this season in several states — the government typically ramps up procurement to support farmer incomes and replenish buffer stocks. The procurement target hike to 34.5 million tonnes is a direct expression of this MSP-backstop mechanism.

FCI and the Central Procurement Mechanism

The Food Corporation of India (FCI), established under the Food Corporations Act, 1964, is the nodal agency for procurement, storage, and distribution of food grains under the National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013. FCI procures wheat from farmers and state governments at MSP and maintains central pool stocks.

  • FCI typically procures 15–20 percent of India's total wheat output in a normal year.
  • Procurement is channelled through state agencies (such as HAFED in Haryana, Markfed in Punjab) alongside FCI's own centres.
  • The central pool stock is used to supply grain under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) and other welfare schemes, as well as to maintain buffer and strategic reserves.
  • Quality standards — moisture content, shrivelling percentage, lustre loss — are defined in the Uniform Specifications for food grains; these can be relaxed by ministerial order in exceptional circumstances.

Connection to this news: The quality norm relaxation for Punjab and other states is an administrative tool within the FCI procurement framework, ensuring that rain-damaged grain is not rejected outright, thereby protecting farmers from distress selling while maintaining the integrity of the central pool.

Rabi Cropping Season and India's Wheat Belt

Wheat is India's primary rabi (winter-sown) crop, sown in October–November and harvested in March–April. Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh together account for nearly 80 percent of total wheat production.

  • The Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) for wheat runs April–March of the following year; the 2026-27 RMS refers to grain procured from the March-April 2026 harvest.
  • Hail and unseasonal rain during the grain-filling and pre-harvest stages cause shrivelling (reduced starch content), lustre loss (cosmetic spoilage), and in extreme cases, crop lodging (flattening of stalks), all of which reduce both yield and quality.
  • Climate variability is increasing the frequency of such late-season weather events in India's wheat belt, posing a structural risk to output predictability.

Connection to this news: The 110–120 million tonne range signals a meaningful retreat from the record-trajectory output projections, underscoring the sensitivity of India's food security calculus to short-duration extreme weather events during harvest.

Key Facts & Data

  • Revised wheat output estimate for 2025-26: 110–120 million tonnes (down from advance estimate of 120.21 MT)
  • Previous year (2024-25) output: 117.94 million tonnes
  • Revised procurement target: 34.5 million tonnes (345 lakh tonnes), up from 30.3 million tonnes
  • Current wheat MSP (2025-26 RMS): ₹2,585 per quintal
  • Quality norm relaxation (Punjab): up to 20% shrivelled/broken grains and 70% lustre loss accepted without MSP deduction
  • First fortnight of April 2026 procurement decline: 69 percent year-on-year due to quality issues
  • Independent industry estimate: 110.65 million tonnes (Agriwatch Annual Wheat Survey)
  • India's wheat requirement for welfare schemes under NFSA: approximately 20–22 million tonnes annually
  • Key affected states: Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
On this page
  1. What Happened
  2. Static Topic Bridges
  3. Minimum Support Price (MSP) and CACP's Role
  4. FCI and the Central Procurement Mechanism
  5. Rabi Cropping Season and India's Wheat Belt
  6. Key Facts & Data
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