Forecast for strong El Nino fans worries about global crops as Iran war bites

Forecasts from multiple international climate agencies point to a strong El Nino event developing in the second half of 2026, with Japan's meteorological age...

What Happened

Forecasts from multiple international climate agencies point to a strong El Nino event developing in the second half of 2026, with Japan's meteorological agency placing the probability at 70 percent for northern hemisphere summer onset.
The anticipated El Nino is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions across South Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa during a period when these regions are in active cropping seasons.
In India, monsoon rainfall for June–September 2026 is projected to be approximately 70–90 percent of the Long Period Average — below normal for the first time in three years — threatening yields of kharif crops including rice, cotton, soybeans, and pulses.
India could face a potential severe drought towards August–September 2026 under scenarios where El Nino intensifies rapidly, with production declines of 5 to 12 percent in affected crops modelled under strong event conditions.
Southeast Asia faces risks to palm oil production (Indonesia, Malaysia) and rice output (Thailand, Vietnam) — crops that are critical for global food commodity markets.
Compounding the climate risk, an ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted fertiliser supply chains and raised fuel costs globally. Key fertiliser-producing regions in West Asia have seen supply disruptions, squeezing input availability for farmers across South and Southeast Asia.
Higher fuel and fertiliser costs reduce farmers' ability to compensate for weather adversity through intensified inputs, amplifying the yield risk associated with climate stress.
Excessive rainfall in parts of South America — the typical El Nino "flip side" — can damage grain quality (particularly soybeans, maize, and wheat) through flooding and mould, reducing the compensating effect that larger Latin American harvests might otherwise provide.
Food commodity prices for palm oil, rice, and grains are expected to face upward pressure through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027, affecting import-dependent economies disproportionately.

Static Topic Bridges

El Nino and Asian Agricultural Vulnerability

The ENSO cycle exerts particularly strong influence over monsoonal Asia, where rain-fed agriculture dominates and hundreds of millions of small and marginal farmers have limited capacity to buffer against weather shocks through insurance, irrigation, or credit.

During El Nino, the Walker Circulation (east-west atmospheric overturning in the tropical Pacific) weakens; this reduces moisture flux into the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia.
The 2015-16 El Nino caused India's monsoon to deliver 86 percent of the Long Period Average in 2015, leading to significant drought in central and peninsular India and crop production shortfalls.
India's kharif sowing window (June–August) coincides with the El Nino onset window for the projected 2026 event, making the monsoon's first half particularly critical.
Southeast Asia: palm oil yields in Indonesia and Malaysia are sensitive to prolonged dry spells; rice production in the Mekong Delta and Thai central plains declines under reduced monsoon rainfall.

Connection to this news: The compounding of an El Nino forecast onto a global food system already under geopolitical stress (fertiliser, fuel, trade disruptions) creates a "compound risk" scenario — multiple stressors reinforcing each other rather than averaging out.

Fertiliser Supply Chains and the Geopolitical-Agricultural Nexus

India and most of South and Southeast Asia are import-dependent for nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilisers — two of the three primary plant nutrients (the third being potassium). Natural gas is the primary feedstock for urea synthesis; any disruption to gas supply or shipping lanes raises the cost of urea production globally.

Urea (nitrogen fertiliser) is synthesised from natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. India imports a significant share of its urea requirement, supplemented by domestic production through companies such as IFFCO and NFL.
Potash (muriate of potash / MoP) is sourced almost entirely from imports; Canada, Russia, and Belarus are the dominant global suppliers.
Phosphatic fertiliser (DAP) raw material (phosphate rock) is concentrated in Morocco, China, and Russia.
Conflict-induced disruptions in West Asia and ongoing sanctions on Russian and Belarusian exports have periodically tightened global supply and raised prices.
India provides urea at subsidised rates to farmers through the Nutrient-Based Subsidy (NBS) scheme (for P&K) and fixed retail price for urea, making the government exchequer sensitive to global fertiliser price spikes.

Connection to this news: Elevated fuel and fertiliser costs simultaneously compress farmer margins and reduce the government's fiscal bandwidth to expand subsidy support, creating a policy dilemma precisely when crop insurance and input support are most needed ahead of a potential El Nino monsoon deficit.

Global Food Security Governance

Food security at the global level is monitored by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) through mechanisms such as the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), the Food Price Index (FFPI), and the Food Outlook bulletin. The WMO complements this with climate forecasts that feed into agricultural early warning systems.

FAO defines food security across four pillars: availability, access, utilisation, and stability.
The FAO Food Price Index tracks global prices of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat, and sugar on a monthly basis. It peaked in March 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and remains elevated relative to pre-2020 norms.
ENSO events have historically produced measurable spikes in food commodity prices; the 2015-16 El Nino contributed to food insecurity in East and Southern Africa.
The "compound risk" framework — as used by IPCC and FAO — identifies situations where multiple climate and geopolitical stressors overlap, amplifying impacts beyond what any single factor would produce.

Connection to this news: The concurrent El Nino risk and geopolitical supply chain disruptions represent a textbook compound risk scenario with direct implications for global food price stability and food import-dependent developing nations.

Key Facts & Data

El Nino onset probability for H2 2026: 61–70 percent (WMO and JMA)
Projected India monsoon 2026: approximately 70–90 percent of Long Period Average
Modelled crop production decline under strong El Nino: 5–12 percent in affected regions
Key kharif crops at risk in India: rice, cotton, soybeans, pulses, groundnut
Key Southeast Asian crops at risk: palm oil (Indonesia, Malaysia), rice (Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar)
Fertiliser cost driver: natural gas (for urea); oil (for fuel and shipping)
India's annual urea consumption: approximately 35 million tonnes (of which imports cover ~6–8 million tonnes in typical years)
India's fertiliser subsidy bill: approximately ₹1.6–1.8 lakh crore annually in recent years
Historical comparison: 2015-16 El Nino — India monsoon at 86% of LPA; agricultural GDP growth fell to 0.7% in 2015-16
FAO Food Price Index (March 2026): remains significantly above 2019 baseline
Countries at highest risk of food import stress: Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia's import-dependent nations