What Happened
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first Long Range Forecast (LRF) on April 13, 2026, predicting a below-normal Southwest Monsoon (SWM) in 2026, with rainfall likely at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- The probability of a deficient monsoon (below 90% of LPA) stands at 35% — the highest probability category — while the probability of a below-normal monsoon (90-95% of LPA) is 31%.
- The primary driver of the below-normal forecast is the expected emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the second half of the monsoon season (August–September 2026).
- Mitigating factors include a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to develop in the latter part of the monsoon season, and below-normal snow cover over the northern hemisphere, which partially offset El Niño's suppressive effect.
- Agriculture accounts for approximately 16% of India's GDP and roughly 60% of farmers are dependent on monsoon rainfall for the Kharif (summer) cropping season, making below-normal rain a critical threat to food security, rural incomes, and inflation.
Static Topic Bridges
Southwest Monsoon — Mechanism and Agricultural Significance
India's Southwest Monsoon (SWM), active from June to September, delivers approximately 75-80% of India's annual rainfall. It is the primary source of freshwater for agriculture, rivers, and groundwater recharge. The LPA (Long Period Average) is calculated over a standard 50-year period and serves as the benchmark for classifying monsoon performance.
- LPA for SWM (1971–2020): 87 cm over the country as a whole
- Monsoon classification: Normal (96-104% of LPA), Below Normal (90-95%), Deficient (<90%), Excess (>110%)
- SWM onset: Kerala coast, typically June 1 (±7 days)
- Kharif crops: paddy, maize, sorghum, bajra, pulses, oilseeds, cotton — sown after monsoon onset (June–July)
- Rabi crops: wheat, mustard, chickpea — sown after monsoon withdrawal (October–November), depend on residual soil moisture
- Agricultural GDP contribution: ~16% of GVA; ~42-45% of workforce employed
- ~60% of net sown area is rainfed (not under irrigation), directly dependent on monsoon
Connection to this news: A deficient monsoon (which has 35% probability in 2026) would directly damage Kharif production, raise food inflation (CPI food weight: ~39-46%), and compress rural incomes.
El Niño — What It Is and How It Affects India
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It occurs every 2–7 years and disrupts global atmospheric circulation patterns, typically associated with weaker Indian monsoons.
- El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle; the cooling phase is La Niña
- El Niño effect on India: reduces monsoon rainfall through weakened pressure gradient between the Pacific and Indian Ocean
- Strong El Niño years with significant Indian drought: 1972, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009
- Not all El Niño years bring drought: 1997 El Niño (strongest on record) was offset by a positive IOD
- IMD's 2026 forecast: El Niño conditions expected to emerge in the latter half of SWM (Aug–Sep 2026)
- ENSO monitoring: done by NOAA (USA), Bureau of Meteorology (Australia), IMD (India)
Connection to this news: The IMD's 35% probability of deficiency and 31% probability of below-normal rainfall are directly linked to El Niño forecast, making this India's first below-normal monsoon prediction in three years.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — Mitigating Factor
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean — the western Indian Ocean warming while the eastern cools (positive phase) or vice versa (negative phase). A positive IOD is associated with enhanced moisture supply to India and typically compensates for El Niño-induced rainfall suppression.
- IOD is sometimes called the "Indian Niño"
- Positive IOD: western Indian Ocean warmer; associated with above-normal rainfall over India
- Negative IOD: eastern Indian Ocean warmer; associated with below-normal monsoon in India
- Historical cases where positive IOD offset El Niño: 1983, 1994, 1997, 2019
- 2026 forecast: IMD expects a positive IOD to develop in the latter part of the SWM season, potentially partially offsetting El Niño
- However, a late-developing positive IOD may arrive too late to fully counter August–September El Niño suppression
Connection to this news: IMD's forecast acknowledges the positive IOD as a mitigating factor, which explains why the central estimate is "below-normal" (92% of LPA) rather than "deficient" — the IOD provides a partial counterweight.
Food Inflation and Monsoon Linkages
A below-normal or deficient monsoon has a rapid transmission mechanism into food prices, as kharif crop output falls, supply-side shocks propagate, and rural incomes contract (reducing purchasing power while raising food costs).
- Kharif production share: paddy (51% of rice production), pulses (38%), oilseeds (60%), cotton (100%)
- El Niño years have historically been associated with elevated food inflation in India
- 2023 saw tomato, onion, and vegetable price spikes linked to partial drought conditions — inflation peaked above 7%
- Below-normal monsoon → lower reservoir levels → impact on rabi crop irrigation as well
- India's food grain buffer stocks (as of April 2026) provide some insurance; procurement policy, MSP revision, and export restrictions are standard government responses
- CPI food and beverages weight: ~39% (rural) and ~29% (urban)
Connection to this news: With WPI already at a 38-month high in March 2026 (partly energy-driven), a below-normal monsoon adds a food-side risk to inflation in H2 FY27, creating a potential stagflationary pressure.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD LRF issued: April 13, 2026
- SWM 2026 forecast: 92% of LPA (below-normal category)
- Probability of deficient monsoon (<90% LPA): 35%
- Probability of below-normal monsoon (90-95% LPA): 31%
- LPA (1971–2020): 87 cm
- El Niño expected: latter half of SWM 2026 (August–September)
- Positive IOD: expected to partially offset El Niño in later months
- Below-normal snow cover: additional mitigating factor
- Kharif cropping season: June–September (aligned with SWM)
- Approximately 60% of Indian farmers dependent on monsoon rainfall
- Rainfed agricultural area: ~60% of net sown area
- Agriculture's share of GDP: ~16% of GVA
- FY26 WPI already at 38-month high (3.88%) — monsoon adds food inflation risk
- India's last below-normal monsoon year before 2026: check against 2023 data