What Happened
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon on April 13, 2026, predicting below-normal rainfall — estimated at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm (±5% model error).
- This is the first below-normal April forecast since 2015 and ends a two-year stretch of above-average monsoon rains.
- IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates a 35% probability of deficient rainfall (below 90% of LPA) and a 31% probability of below-normal rainfall (90–96% of LPA).
- The primary driver is the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the second half of the monsoon season (August–September).
- This forecast arrives as India is already under inflationary stress from the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis — which has pushed up fuel and commodity prices — making a food price shock a compounding risk.
- Key kharif crops at risk include rice, pulses (tur, urad), oilseeds (groundnut, soybean), cotton, and maize — all directly dependent on monsoon rainfall.
- ICRA and other rating agencies have flagged that India's agricultural sector faces a "trifecta" of threats: below-normal monsoon, El Niño, and West Asia conflict impacts.
- IMD is set to issue an updated forecast in the last week of May 2026.
Static Topic Bridges
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Monsoon
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It has a well-documented teleconnection with the Indian Summer Monsoon (June–September): El Niño events are associated with below-normal or deficient monsoon rainfall over India, while La Niña years typically see above-normal rains. The relationship is probabilistic, not deterministic — some El Niño years have seen near-normal monsoons (e.g., 1997–98). The current transition from La Niña-like to ENSO-neutral and then to El Niño conditions during the 2026 monsoon season is the key driver of IMD's pessimistic forecast.
- El Niño: Warming of central/eastern Pacific → weakens Indian Ocean pressure gradient → suppresses Indian monsoon
- La Niña: Cooling of Pacific → strengthens monsoon → above-normal rainfall
- ENSO-neutral: Near-normal or uncertain monsoon outcome
- IMD's 2026 forecast: Transition to El Niño during Aug–Sep 2026 (second half of monsoon)
- Historical accuracy: IMD's April forecast has model error of ±5%; a full seasonal assessment is issued in May
Connection to this news: The anticipated El Niño development in the latter half of the 2026 monsoon is the primary reason IMD has forecast below-normal rains at 92% of LPA — the first such forecast since 2015.
IMD's Long Range Forecast (LRF) System
The India Meteorological Department issues two seasonal monsoon forecasts: a first-stage forecast in April and a second-stage updated forecast in May/June. The LRF uses the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) — a dynamical model — alongside statistical models. The benchmark against which actual rainfall is measured is the Long Period Average (LPA): the average rainfall over the entire country during June–September, computed over the past 50 years. The current LPA is approximately 87 cm. "Normal" rainfall is defined as 96–104% of LPA; "below normal" is 90–96%; "deficient" is below 90%.
- LPA (Long Period Average): 87 cm (June–September, all-India average)
- Normal: 96–104% of LPA
- Below normal: 90–96% of LPA
- Deficient: Below 90% of LPA
- 2026 forecast: 92% of LPA (below normal range)
- Probabilities: 35% deficient, 31% below normal
- IMD's forecast system: MMCFS (dynamical) + statistical ensemble
- Second forecast: Last week of May 2026
Connection to this news: IMD's 92% LPA forecast places the 2026 monsoon squarely in the "below normal" band, with significant probability of sliding into "deficient" — a threshold associated with major agricultural distress.
Kharif Crops and Monsoon Dependency
India's Kharif crop season runs from June to October, coinciding precisely with the Southwest Monsoon. Approximately 60% of India's net sown area is rain-fed, making kharif agriculture critically dependent on monsoon performance. Key kharif crops include: - Rice: Largest kharif crop by area; major in eastern India, Punjab, Haryana; export implications - Pulses (tur/arhar, urad, moong): Protein staples; prices highly sensitive to domestic supply - Oilseeds (soybean, groundnut, sunflower): Critical for edible oil prices; India imports heavily - Cotton: Cash crop; impacts textile sector - Maize: Poultry feed; rising importance
A below-normal or deficient monsoon directly reduces kharif output, driving up food prices — particularly for pulses and vegetables — which dominate India's food inflation basket.
- India's agricultural area dependent on monsoon: ~60% of net sown area
- Kharif sowing season: June–July (after monsoon onset)
- IMD's monsoon onset: Typically June 1 (Kerala)
- India's edible oil import dependency: ~60% of domestic consumption (vulnerable to any domestic oilseed shortfall)
- Pulse imports: India is the world's largest importer of pulses
Connection to this news: A below-normal 2026 monsoon will directly threaten kharif output of pulses and oilseeds — the two commodity groups with the highest inflation pass-through to consumers.
Food Inflation and the RBI's Dilemma
Food prices have an approximately 46% weight in India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the highest among major emerging economies. When monsoon shortfalls reduce farm output, food CPI rises sharply. This creates a structural dilemma for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI): rising food inflation pushes headline CPI above the 4% target (upper tolerance: 6%), yet the root cause is a supply-side shock (not demand) that rate hikes cannot fix. Raising rates to control food inflation would suppress growth without addressing the agricultural supply problem. This tension is the core of the "RBI dilemma" in bad monsoon years.
- CPI food weight: ~46%
- RBI's inflation target: 4% ± 2% (i.e., 2–6% band under FRBM flexible inflation targeting framework)
- Supply-side vs. demand-side inflation: Supply shocks (crop failure) call for fiscal/agricultural policy, not monetary tightening
- 2023 precedent: Tomato/vegetable price spike (supply shock) drove CPI above 7%, but RBI held rates steady
- CPI projection for 2026: Risk of exceeding 4.5% if monsoon is deficient + Hormuz energy prices persist
Connection to this news: The below-average monsoon forecast is specifically flagged as a "new inflation risk" because it arrives when India is already managing energy price pressures from the Hormuz crisis — a dual supply shock scenario that complicates RBI's rate path.
Agricultural MSP and CACP
The Minimum Support Price (MSP) is the government's price guarantee for farmers on specified crops. The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) — under the Ministry of Agriculture — recommends MSPs annually, and the Cabinet approves them. In bad monsoon years, MSP announcements are particularly significant: higher MSPs compensate farmers for lower yields but can also validate higher market prices, contributing to food inflation. The Kharif MSP for 2026 will be announced around June–July 2026 — its quantum will be closely watched.
- CACP: Statutory body; recommends Kharif and Rabi MSPs annually
- 23 crops covered by MSP; Cabinet sets final price
- MSP formula: A2+FL (actual paid-out costs + family labour); government had committed to 50% profit margin over A2+FL
- 2025 Kharif MSP for paddy: ₹2,300/quintal
- MSP revision in deficit years: Typically higher to support farmer income → can add to food inflation
Connection to this news: In the event of a deficient monsoon, the government will face pressure to sharply raise Kharif MSPs to protect farmer incomes — a step that further feeds food price inflation already elevated by war-driven commodity shocks.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD forecast (April 13, 2026): 92% of LPA — below normal (LPA = 87 cm)
- First below-normal April forecast since: 2015
- Probability of deficient rainfall: 35%
- Probability of below-normal rainfall: 31%
- Primary driver: El Niño expected to develop in August–September 2026
- Previous two years: Above-average monsoon (La Niña conditions)
- Kharif crops at risk: Rice, pulses (tur, urad), oilseeds (groundnut, soybean), cotton
- CPI food weight: ~46%
- CPI risk projection: Potentially above 4.5% in FY 2026–27 if monsoon is deficient
- Compounding risk: Hormuz crisis → elevated energy prices → double supply shock
- IMD updated forecast: Expected last week of May 2026