What Happened
- The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) first long-range forecast (LRF) for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon pegs seasonal rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — categorised as below-normal — the lowest first LRF in at least 25 years.
- Rating agency ICRA has warned that India's agricultural sector faces a challenging year ahead due to a convergence of three simultaneous risks: weak monsoon, emerging El Niño conditions, and disruption to fertiliser supply chains from the ongoing West Asia conflict.
- Global weather agencies have placed a 62% probability on El Niño developing between June and August 2026; El Niño conditions historically weaken the Indian Southwest Monsoon.
- The West Asia conflict threatens the supply of fertiliser raw materials and finished products, potentially forcing India to seek alternative — and costlier — sources.
- ICRA has flagged downside risks to its FY2027 agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) growth forecast of 3.0%, and expects CPI inflation to exceed 4.5% driven by food price pressures.
Static Topic Bridges
IMD Long-Range Forecasting and the Long Period Average (LPA)
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing Long-Range Forecasts (LRF) for the Southwest Monsoon for over 100 years using statistical and dynamical models. The current LPA of seasonal rainfall over India, based on the 1971–2020 reference period, is 87 cm. IMD uses this benchmark to classify monsoon outcomes: deficient (below 90% of LPA), below-normal (90–95% of LPA), normal (96–104% of LPA), above-normal, and excess. Forecasting relies on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system drawing on coupled global climate models from international centres, including IMD's own Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS).
- LPA (1971–2020 base period): 87 cm of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole
- Below-normal category: 90–95% of LPA; deficient: below 90% of LPA
- IMD issues two LRFs — the first in April, the second (updated) in June
- 2026 first LRF: 92% of LPA (±5%), lowest first LRF mid-point in 25 years
Connection to this news: The 92% LRF already sits at the boundary between below-normal and deficient, and the ±5% error band means outcomes ranging from 87% to 97% of LPA are within the forecast envelope — heightening agricultural uncertainty.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Monsoon
ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) refers to periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The warm phase (El Niño) weakens the Walker Circulation and reduces moisture influx into the Indian subcontinent, historically causing below-normal or deficient monsoon years in India. The cool phase (La Niña) has the opposite effect, often enhancing monsoon rainfall. About 40% of inter-annual variability in India's summer monsoon rainfall is under ENSO influence, and Indian summer monsoon rainfall shows roughly 10% inter-annual variability around the LPA.
- El Niño years with deficient rainfall historically: 1987, 2002, 2009, 2015
- La Niña years often associated with excess/normal rainfall: 2020, 2021, 2022
- 62% probability of El Niño developing during June–August 2026 (per global agencies as of April 2026)
- ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in 2025 had supported relatively normal monsoons
Connection to this news: Even a moderate El Niño materialising mid-season could exacerbate the already below-normal baseline forecast, compounding risks to kharif crop sowing and productivity.
Fertiliser Security and India's Agricultural Input Dependence
India is the world's second-largest consumer of fertilisers and depends heavily on imports for key inputs — particularly urea (partially, from Russia, Oman, Egypt), DAP (di-ammonium phosphate from West Asia and North Africa), and potash (MOP, almost entirely imported from Russia, Belarus, and Canada). The West Asia region is a significant supplier of phosphatic fertilisers and their feedstocks (rock phosphate, sulphur). Geopolitical disruptions in this corridor raise procurement costs and risk supply shortfalls during the critical kharif sowing season (June–September).
- India imports ~50% of its DAP requirement; West Asia/North Africa is a key source
- Potash (MOP): ~100% imported — vulnerability concentrated in Russia/Belarus/Canada supply
- Government intervenes via fertiliser subsidy to insulate farmers from price spikes
- Fertiliser subsidy budget in recent years: Rs 1.6–2.2 lakh crore annually
Connection to this news: The West Asia conflict disrupts shipping lanes and production nodes for phosphatic fertilisers. Combined with a below-normal monsoon, input shortages could hit kharif sowing harder than in typical years, threatening food production and elevating food inflation.
Food Inflation, Rural Demand, and the Agriculture-Economy Nexus
Agriculture accounts for approximately 18% of India's GDP and provides livelihoods to nearly 46% of the workforce. A poor monsoon directly reduces kharif output (rice, pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals, sugarcane, cotton), raises food prices, compresses rural incomes and consumption, and pressures monetary policy. The RBI targets CPI inflation at 4% (±2% tolerance band); food has a weight of ~46% in the CPI basket, making monsoon outcomes a primary determinant of headline inflation.
- Food weight in CPI basket: ~46%
- Agriculture's share in GVA: ~18% (FY2025)
- Kharif season sowing: June–September, highly dependent on monsoon distribution
- ICRA's FY2027 agriculture GVA growth forecast: 3.0% (with downside risks flagged)
- ICRA projection: CPI inflation to exceed 4.5% in FY2027 if risks materialise
Connection to this news: A simultaneous stress from monsoon failure, El Niño onset, and fertiliser supply disruption could push food inflation above the RBI's upper tolerance band, constraining rate cuts and dampening rural consumption-led growth.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD 2026 Southwest Monsoon first LRF: 92% of LPA (±5%) — below-normal category
- LPA of seasonal rainfall (1971–2020 base): 87 cm over India as a whole
- 92% forecast is the lowest first LRF mid-point in at least 25 years (compared to prior range of 93–106% of LPA)
- El Niño probability for June–August 2026: 62% per global weather agencies
- ICRA FY2027 agriculture GVA growth forecast: 3.0% (flagged downside risks)
- CPI inflation expected to exceed 4.5% in FY2027 if the trifecta of risks materialises
- Food weight in CPI: ~46%; agricultural workforce share: ~46% of total employment
- India imports nearly all its potash (MOP) requirement; depends heavily on West Asia/North Africa for phosphatic fertilisers