What Happened
- Both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private forecaster Skymet have independently predicted a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with IMD forecasting 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) and Skymet forecasting 94% of LPA.
- The convergence of two independent forecasting systems on a below-normal outlook strengthens confidence in the prediction, though both carry ±5% model error.
- The primary driver cited by both agencies is the expected development of El Niño conditions during or after June 2026, which historically suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall.
- The forecast raises significant concern for kharif agriculture, food inflation, and water security — and brings into focus questions about the reliability and methodology of monsoon predictions.
- Skymet, India's only private weather forecasting agency (established 2003), often issues its forecast 10+ days ahead of IMD — a competitive dynamic with implications for agrarian planning.
Static Topic Bridges
India Meteorological Department (IMD): Institutional Framework
The IMD is India's statutory national weather service, established in 1875, and operates under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. It is responsible for all official meteorological advisories including the critical Long Range Forecast (LRF) for the southwest monsoon — which is taken as the authoritative government position for agricultural, water, and disaster management planning.
- Established: 1875; Headquarters: Mausam Bhawan, New Delhi
- Under: Ministry of Earth Sciences
- LRF issued in two stages: April (first stage) and June (updated regional forecast)
- Methodology: Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), Multi-Model Ensemble (MME), and statistical models using 16 predictors
- LPA (1971–2020): 868.6 mm for all-India June–September rainfall
- IMD's forecast accuracy: within ±5% of LPA for 2021–2024 (100% accuracy band)
Connection to this news: IMD's April 2026 forecast of 92% LPA (below normal) is the official benchmark that governments, RBI, and planners use for crop production and food security assessments.
Skymet Weather: India's Private Meteorological Services
Skymet Weather Services is India's only private weather forecasting company, established in 2003. It runs proprietary numerical weather prediction models and provides weather-based services to agriculture, aviation, media, power, logistics, and insurance sectors. Skymet typically releases its monsoon forecast several days before IMD, creating a competitive information environment.
- Founded: 2003; headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh
- Operates proprietary numerical models distinct from IMD's MMCFS
- Serves agriculture, commodity, insurance, and media sectors
- Skymet 2026 monsoon forecast: 94% of LPA (±5%), "below normal"
- Issues forecast ~10 days ahead of IMD, using earlier April initial conditions
- Skymet predicts weaker monsoon during July–September, with Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and central India most at risk
Connection to this news: Both IMD and Skymet independently arriving at "below normal" forecasts for 2026 reduces forecast uncertainty and lends credibility to the outlook — significant for advance agricultural planning.
Monsoon Forecast Methodology: Dynamical vs. Statistical Models
India uses two broad approaches to monsoon forecasting: (1) dynamical models — which simulate the atmosphere-ocean-land system using physical equations (e.g., MMCFS), and (2) statistical models — which identify historical correlations between monsoon rainfall and predictor variables (SSTs, snow cover, pressure anomalies). IMD uses a hybrid approach combining both, alongside multi-model ensembles from global forecasting centres.
- IMD's MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System): coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model; operational since 2011
- Statistical predictors: 16 parameters including Himalayan snow cover, SSTs in Nino regions, pressure anomalies, IOD
- Spring predictability barrier (March–May): limits ENSO forecast skill for the subsequent monsoon season
- Multi-Model Ensemble (MME): combines outputs from global centres including ECMWF, NCEP, UK Met Office
- Forecast skill improves when both ENSO signal and IOD signal are consistent
Connection to this news: The spring predictability barrier means that both IMD's and Skymet's April forecasts carry inherent uncertainty — the ±5% error margin reflects this limitation. June updates will sharpen spatial and quantitative guidance.
Role of Monsoon Forecasts in Policy and Economy
Accurate monsoon forecasts are essential for advance planning across multiple sectors. Agriculture departments use them to issue crop advisories; state governments prepare drought contingency plans; the RBI factors monsoon outlook into food inflation projections and monetary policy guidance; commodity traders and the insurance sector price risk based on forecast updates.
- National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) guidelines activate when rainfall is below 75% of normal in a district for a defined period
- Crop insurance under Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) uses weather data for claims processing
- RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) explicitly references monsoon in rate-setting statements
- State governments issue Drought Notification under the Revenue Code when rainfall deficit triggers set thresholds
- IMD advisories reach farmers via Kisan App, Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (Village Agro-Met service)
Connection to this news: With both IMD and Skymet flagging below-normal rainfall for 2026, central and state government machinery for drought preparedness, kharif crop support, and food procurement can be activated earlier in the season.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD 2026 monsoon forecast: 92% of LPA (±5%), below normal
- Skymet 2026 monsoon forecast: 94% of LPA (±5%), below normal
- LPA (1971–2020): 868.6 mm (June–September, all-India)
- IMD accuracy record (2021–2024): 100% within ±5% LPA band
- Skymet established: 2003; India's only private weather forecasting company
- El Niño development post-June 2026: primary driver of both forecasts
- Regions at highest risk: Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, central India (August–September)
- Positive IOD expected to develop late in the 2026 monsoon season
- Southwest monsoon: ~75% of India's annual rainfall