What Happened
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first long-range forecast for the 2026 South West Monsoon (SWM), predicting below-normal rainfall at approximately 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — around 800 mm — with a model error of ±5%.
- The probability of deficient rainfall (below 90% of LPA) is highest at 35%, while the probability of below-normal rainfall (90–95% of LPA) stands at 31%.
- The primary driver is the expected development of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the second half of the monsoon season (July–September 2026).
- Approximately 60% of Indian farmers depend entirely on monsoon rainfall for the Kharif season, making this forecast a significant concern for agricultural output, rural incomes, and food security.
Static Topic Bridges
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Monsoon
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño refers to the warming phase, while La Niña refers to the cooling phase. ENSO significantly influences global weather patterns, including the Indian South West Monsoon.
- During El Niño years, the Walker Circulation weakens — rising air over the warm Pacific creates subsidence over the Indian Ocean, suppressing monsoon rainfall over South Asia
- The 2023 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, causing below-average monsoon rainfall that year; historical data shows about 60–65% of below-normal monsoon years coincide with El Niño events
- La Niña years, by contrast, tend to favour above-normal Indian monsoon rainfall
- However, other factors — particularly the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and northern hemisphere snow cover — can partially offset El Niño's negative impact: below-normal NH snow cover during January–March 2026 is a mild positive factor for the monsoon
Connection to this news: IMD's 2026 forecast is driven primarily by the anticipated El Niño development in the Pacific by mid-season (August–September), with dry spells most likely in July–August — the critical months for Kharif crop sowing and growth.
Long Period Average (LPA) and Monsoon Classification
The Long Period Average is the benchmark against which seasonal monsoon performance is measured. IMD uses the average rainfall over a 50-year period as its LPA. The current LPA for June–September (South West Monsoon season) is approximately 868.6 mm.
- IMD monsoon classification: Above Normal (>104% LPA), Normal (96–104% LPA), Below Normal (90–95% LPA), Deficient (80–89% LPA), Drought (<80% LPA)
- 92% of LPA falls in the "Below Normal" category
- The South West Monsoon accounts for approximately 70–75% of India's annual rainfall
- The SWM typically arrives at Kerala around June 1 and covers the entire country by July 15
- Northeast Monsoon (October–December) is critical for Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra, and Puducherry
Connection to this news: A season ending at 92% of LPA is technically "below normal" — not drought level — but with 35% probability of deficiency, and El Niño expected in the second half, the seasonal distribution of rainfall (not just total volume) is as critical as the aggregate number.
Kharif Agriculture and Monsoon Dependence
Kharif crops are sown at the start of the South West Monsoon (June–July) and harvested by September–October. They depend almost entirely on rainfall for irrigation. Major Kharif crops include paddy (rice), maize, jowar, bajra, cotton, sugarcane, groundnut, soybean, and pulses.
- India's net sown area is approximately 140 million hectares; of this, only about 49% is irrigated — the remaining depends on rainfall
- A 1% shortfall in monsoon rainfall typically leads to a 0.2–0.4% decline in agricultural GDP
- Rice is the most water-intensive Kharif crop; a dry July–August directly reduces paddy yields, which affects food price inflation
- MSP (Minimum Support Price) operations and the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) are key government tools to manage food price shocks during drought years
- The National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013 provides 5 kg of subsidised foodgrains per person per month to about 81.35 crore beneficiaries — its buffer stock requirements become critical during poor monsoon years
Connection to this news: Projected dry periods in July and August 2026 directly threaten Kharif crops such as paddy, maize, and soybeans — the very crops that feed the NFSA system and anchor rural incomes for 60% of India's farming households.
Monsoon and Macroeconomic Linkages
India's monsoon outcome has cascading effects on the broader economy through food prices, rural demand, hydropower generation, and reservoir-based irrigation.
- Agricultural sector contributes approximately 17–18% to GDP but employs ~46% of the workforce, making rural consumption a critical demand driver
- Below-normal monsoon raises food inflation (particularly vegetables, pulses, cereals), constraining RBI's monetary policy flexibility
- India's reservoir storage, monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC), feeds ~50% of irrigation requirements and also drives ~11% of national electricity generation through hydropower
- A deficient monsoon year can reduce groundwater recharge, compounding agricultural distress in the next Rabi season as well
Connection to this news: A below-normal 2026 monsoon, coming alongside elevated global energy prices from the West Asia conflict, creates a dual inflationary pressure — supply-side food inflation and import-cost inflation — posing a serious challenge for macroeconomic management.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD forecast: 92% of LPA (approximately 800 mm) for SWM 2026
- Model error: ±5%
- Probability of deficient rainfall (<90% LPA): 35%
- Probability of below-normal rainfall (90–95% LPA): 31%
- Primary driver: El Niño development expected in Equatorial Pacific by second half of monsoon
- Approximately 60% of Indian farmers are entirely dependent on monsoon for Kharif crops
- LPA for June–September (current 50-year average): ~868.6 mm
- Critical at-risk Kharif crops: paddy, maize, soybeans, pulses