What Happened
- IMD's official forecast warns of below-normal rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the 2026 South West Monsoon (June–September), with a 35% probability of deficient rainfall.
- The growing risk of El Niño developing in the second half of the monsoon season is the central climate driver behind the below-normal forecast.
- Skymet Weather Services independently confirmed a similar forecast, projecting below-normal rainfall and flagging El Niño as the dominant seasonal influence.
- The India Meteorological Department typically releases its first long-range forecast in April and a second updated forecast in May, incorporating more refined ocean–atmosphere models.
Static Topic Bridges
El Niño: Mechanism and India Impact
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, characterised by anomalous warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts the global atmospheric circulation, weakening the Walker Circulation and suppressing the South Asian monsoon.
- The Walker Circulation is the east-west atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific; it drives trade winds that push warm water westward, creating conditions favourable to Indian Ocean moisture and monsoon rainfall
- When El Niño suppresses Walker Circulation, the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) shifts eastward, reducing moisture advection into the Indian subcontinent
- El Niño's negative effect on Indian monsoon is strongest in July–September; June is usually less affected
- The 2002, 2009, 2014, and 2023 below-normal monsoon years were all associated with El Niño events
- Not all El Niño years produce drought in India — a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can partially offset El Niño's impact (as in 2019)
Connection to this news: IMD expects El Niño conditions to strengthen specifically in the second half of SWM 2026 (July–September), which aligns with the peak growing period for Kharif crops — making the forecast more concerning than a uniform rainfall deficit would suggest.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Seasonal Forecasting
The India Meteorological Department is India's national meteorological service, established in 1875, operating under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. It is responsible for weather forecasting, climate services, and disaster early warning systems.
- IMD issues a two-stage long-range forecast: April forecast (based on ocean–atmosphere coupling signals) and May update (refined with additional Pacific and Indian Ocean data)
- IMD uses a Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) and dynamical models including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) developed by IITM Pune
- IMD's LPA is recalculated periodically; the current figure is based on 1971–2020 data
- IMD's forecast accuracy for seasonal anomaly detection has improved significantly with the Monsoon Mission launched in 2012 under the Ministry of Earth Sciences
- Probabilistic forecasting (giving probability ranges across categories) replaced single-number deterministic forecasts after 2015 to better communicate uncertainty
Connection to this news: The 35% probability of deficient rainfall in the April forecast carries policy weight — government agencies begin pre-emptive steps including buffer stock positioning, MSP procurement planning, and drought contingency fund allocation well before June onset.
Drought Management and Government Response Mechanisms
India has a structured institutional and policy framework for drought management, updated through the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) guidelines and the revised Drought Manual.
- Drought is classified in India as: Meteorological (rainfall deficit), Hydrological (water body depletion), Agricultural (soil moisture deficit affecting crops), Socio-economic (food/income scarcity)
- The NDMA guidelines (2010, revised 2016) require state governments to declare drought by October following an assessment of rainfall, soil moisture, ground water, crop conditions, and livestock status
- The National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF) / State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF) provides financial relief to drought-affected states
- MGNREGS (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme) acts as an automatic economic stabiliser during drought years — work demand surges and employment days are extended
- PM Kisan Samman Nidhi and PM Fasal Bima Yojana (crop insurance under PMFBY) are additional safety nets for farmers facing crop loss
Connection to this news: A below-normal to deficient monsoon season in 2026 triggers activation of drought contingency plans at the district level, early release of SDRF, and upward pressure on work demand under MGNREGS — all demanding advance planning from April itself.
Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover as a Monsoon Predictor
Eurasian and Himalayan snow cover during winter and early spring is one of several teleconnection indices used in Indian monsoon prediction. Below-normal snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere during January–March is historically associated with a stronger monsoon.
- The snow cover–monsoon relationship (Blanford's Hypothesis, 1884) postulates that heavy Himalayan snow cover delays land surface heating, weakening the thermal gradient that drives the monsoon
- IMD uses NH snow cover, ENSO indices, and Indian Ocean SSTs as input variables in its statistical forecasting models
- Northern hemisphere snow cover during January–March 2026 was slightly below normal — a mild positive factor that partially offsets the El Niño signal
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — the difference in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern Indian Ocean — is the other critical modifying factor; its spring state in 2026 was being monitored for its direction
Connection to this news: The below-normal NH snow cover in early 2026 introduces some uncertainty into the purely El Niño-driven bearish monsoon signal, explaining why IMD placed the aggregate at 92% rather than deeper into deficient territory.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD forecast: 92% of LPA (~800 mm) for SWM June–September 2026
- Deficient rainfall probability (<90% LPA): 35%; Below-normal (90–95%): 31%
- Skymet independently forecasts below-normal rainfall for 2026
- Major climate driver: El Niño development expected in Equatorial Pacific, second half of SWM
- Mitigating factor: NH snow cover in Jan–Mar 2026 was slightly below normal (mild positive)
- IMD established in 1875; operates under Ministry of Earth Sciences
- Two-stage forecast: April (first estimate) + May (updated estimate)
- The 2023 El Niño was among the strongest on record; 2026 El Niño developing phase