Indus Waters Treaty: One year since Operation Sindoor, how India and Pakistan have approached deadlock

Following the Pahalgam terrorist attack on 22 April 2025 — in which 26 civilians were killed in Jammu & Kashmir — India placed the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) ...

What Happened

Following the Pahalgam terrorist attack on 22 April 2025 — in which 26 civilians were killed in Jammu & Kashmir — India placed the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, citing national security concerns and cross-border terrorism.
Operation Sindoor, launched on 7 May 2025, saw India strike terrorism-related infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Azad Kashmir, deepening the bilateral rift.
India took specific operational steps: stopping water flow on the Chenab River from the Baglihar Dam and conducting off-season reservoir flushing at Salal and Baglihar projects — actions that violate treaty provisions and were taken without informing Pakistan.
A Court of Arbitration established under the treaty's dispute resolution mechanism noted in June 2025 that the treaty does not permit unilateral abeyance and reaffirmed its jurisdiction.
As of May 2026, the treaty remains in abeyance; a Neutral Expert verdict adjudicating long-standing technical differences is expected by end-2026.

Static Topic Bridges

The Indus Waters Treaty (1960): Structure and Water Allocation

Signed in Karachi on 19 September 1960, the IWT was negotiated with World Bank mediation between Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan. It is widely regarded as one of the most successful international water-sharing agreements, having survived three wars between the two countries.

The treaty divides six rivers of the Indus basin into two categories: - Eastern Rivers (Beas, Ravi, Sutlej) — allocated primarily to India for unrestricted use. - Western Rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum) — allocated primarily to Pakistan, with India permitted limited consumptive and non-consumptive uses, including run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects.

India controls roughly 20% of the total water flow; Pakistan receives approximately 80%.

The treaty established the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), a bilateral body comprising one commissioner from each country, mandated to meet at least once annually.
World Bank's role under the treaty is strictly procedural (Annexures F & G) — it facilitates dispute resolution but cannot adjudicate.
The treaty has no exit or abeyance clause — either party can only seek modification through mutual agreement or through formal dispute resolution.

Connection to this news: India's placing of the treaty "in abeyance" has no legal basis within the treaty framework — the Court of Arbitration explicitly confirmed this in June 2025. This makes the current situation legally unprecedented in the treaty's 65-year history.

Three-Tier Dispute Resolution Mechanism under IWT

The IWT contains a sophisticated three-tier dispute resolution mechanism that distinguishes between the severity of disagreements:

Tier 1 — "Questions": Routine differences handled by the Permanent Indus Commission through discussion.
Tier 2 — "Differences": Unresolved technical disputes referred to a Neutral Expert appointed by the World Bank.
Tier 3 — "Disputes": Fundamental legal or interpretive disagreements referred to an ad hoc Court of Arbitration (seven-member tribunal).

India and Pakistan have simultaneously pursued both the Neutral Expert route (on Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects) and the Court of Arbitration route — an unusual parallel invocation that the World Bank itself has flagged as problematic.
The Neutral Expert delivered an initial finding in January 2025 affirming full competence to adjudicate India's differences; a final award is expected by end-2026.

Connection to this news: The current deadlock involves both diplomatic abeyance (India's unilateral step) and ongoing legal proceedings (Neutral Expert, Court of Arbitration) — two separate tracks that are now deeply entangled with the bilateral political crisis.

Water as a Geopolitical Instrument

International water law generally operates under the UN Watercourses Convention (1997), which establishes principles of equitable and reasonable utilisation, no significant harm, and cooperation between co-riparian states. The IWT predates this convention and represents an older paradigm of permanent physical division rather than shared governance.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on the Indus system — approximately 80% of its agricultural irrigation depends on the Western Rivers.
The Chenab and Jhelum rivers, whose water India has sought to restrict, are lifelines for Pakistan's Punjab province.
International legal scholars largely hold that unilateral suspension of a bilateral water treaty violates customary international law obligations.

Connection to this news: India's use of water flow as a retaliatory instrument introduces a new dimension to the concept of "hybrid warfare" — a combination of kinetic operations (Operation Sindoor) and resource diplomacy — with significant downstream effects on food and water security in Pakistan.

Key Facts & Data

IWT signed: 19 September 1960; mediated by the World Bank under President Eugene Black.
Water split: India ~20%, Pakistan ~80% of total Indus basin flow.
Eastern Rivers (India): Beas, Ravi, Sutlej.
Western Rivers (Pakistan, with limited Indian use): Indus, Chenab, Jhelum.
Pahalgam attack: 22 April 2025; 26 civilians killed; attributed to The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Operation Sindoor: launched 7 May 2025; ceasefire 10 May 2025.
Court of Arbitration verdict (June 2025): treaty does not permit unilateral abeyance.
Neutral Expert final award: expected by end-2026.
PIC meets at least once annually; has survived three India-Pakistan wars (1965, 1971, 1999).