The Ganga is under stress — The treaty needs more than renewal

What Happened

• The 1996 Ganga Waters Treaty between India and Bangladesh is set to expire in December 2026, prompting formal renewal discussions between the two countries.
• The Joint Rivers Commission — the bilateral body that supervises treaty implementation — held its 86th meeting in Kolkata in March 2025 as part of the renewal process.
• Scientists and water experts are warning that simply renewing the treaty in its existing form is insufficient given that the Ganga basin is experiencing an unprecedented and severe drying trend.
• Both sides have begun joint measurements of water levels in the Ganga and Padma rivers as a step toward renegotiation.
• Bangladesh has argued that India's growing upstream withdrawals and the effects of climate change mean the treaty consistently underestimates water stress in the lower riparian zone.
• Studies covering the treaty implementation period (1997–2015) show that Bangladesh did not receive its guaranteed share of water during most critical dry periods.

Static Topic Bridges

The 1996 Ganga Waters Treaty

The Ganga Waters Treaty was signed on December 12, 1996, by the prime ministers of India and Bangladesh in New Delhi. It is a 30-year agreement governing the sharing of the Ganga's dry-season flow at the Farakka Barrage between January 1 and May 31 each year. The treaty uses a formula-based approach: when flow at Farakka exceeds 75,000 cusecs, both countries receive 40,000 cusecs each; when flow is between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh receives 35,000 cusecs; when flow falls below 70,000 cusecs, the flow is shared equally. If the flow drops below 50,000 cusecs in any 10-day period, both governments must enter immediate emergency consultations. Article XII of the treaty states it may be renewed by mutual consent; there is no provision for automatic renewal.

Farakka Barrage and Downstream Impacts

The Farakka Barrage was built in 1975 across the Ganga in West Bengal, approximately 16.5 km from the Bangladesh border. Its primary purpose was to divert water into the Hooghly River to flush silt from the Kolkata port. The barrage significantly altered the hydrology of both the Ganga in India and the Padma River in Bangladesh. Studies show that during the post-Farakka period, maximum, average, and minimum dry-season discharges in the Padma fell by approximately 23%, 43%, and 65% respectively compared to pre-barrage levels.

Lower Riparian Rights in International Water Law

International water law recognises the principle of equitable and reasonable utilisation of shared watercourses, codified in the UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997). The "no significant harm" principle obliges upper riparian states to ensure their use of shared rivers does not cause significant harm to lower riparian states. Bangladesh, as a lower riparian, is entitled to a fair share of transboundary river flows.

Climate Change and the Ganga Basin

The Ganga basin supports over 600 million people across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Recent research published in PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) found that the drying of the Ganga in recent decades (1991–2020) is unprecedented in the last 1,300 years. Himalayan glaciers, which feed the river, are retreating due to rising temperatures, reducing meltwater flows during the dry season. Changing rainfall patterns and increased upstream irrigation withdrawals in India and Nepal compound the problem.

Key Facts & Data

• Treaty signed: December 12, 1996; expires December 2026
• Duration: 30 years; no automatic renewal clause (Article XII requires mutual consent)
• Sharing formula: Based on actual 10-day flow readings at Farakka, not a fixed split
• Guaranteed minimum: 35,000 cusecs to each country in alternate 10-day periods (March 11–May 10)
• Emergency threshold: If flow falls below 50,000 cusecs, immediate bilateral consultations required
• Dry-season flow reduction in Padma post-Farakka: up to 65% decline in minimum flows
• Bangladesh's shortfall: Studies show Bangladesh did not receive its guaranteed share in most critical dry periods during 1997–2016
• Ganga basin drying: Recent decades show most severe drying in 1,300 years (PNAS research)
• Joint Rivers Commission meeting: 86th session held in Kolkata, March 2025
• India's upstream water withdrawals have grown substantially since 1996, reducing flows available for the sharing formula
• India has not ratified the UN Watercourses Convention (1997)