India’s forests could nearly double carbon storage by 2100, study finds

A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change projects that if India achieves its National Forest Policy targets, the country's forests could store ...

What Happened

A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change projects that if India achieves its National Forest Policy targets, the country's forests could store up to 2.5 billion tonnes of additional carbon by 2100 — nearly doubling current forest carbon stocks.
The study, conducted by researchers examining carbon uptake potential in India's forests, found that vegetation carbon biomass could increase by 35% (low-emissions scenario) to 97% (high-emissions scenario) by 2100.
Major drivers of increased carbon storage identified include elevated atmospheric CO2 (which enhances photosynthesis — the CO2 fertilisation effect) and changes in rainfall variability.
More than 60% of the projected carbon growth is expected in India's arid and semi-arid margins, particularly in Rajasthan and Gujarat — regions not typically associated with dense forest cover.
The study's findings significantly support India's climate commitments, including the target to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 and 3.5–4 billion tonnes by 2035 under its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

Static Topic Bridges

National Forest Policy, 1988 — Objectives and Forest Cover Targets

The National Forest Policy, 1988 replaced the earlier Forest Policy of 1952 and remains the foundational policy framework for forest governance in India.

Principal aim: Ensure environmental stability, maintain ecological balance, and conserve natural heritage
Key quantitative target: Minimum of one-third (33%) of total geographical area to be brought under forest and tree cover; in hill and mountainous regions, two-thirds of the area to be maintained under forest cover
India's current forest and tree cover: Approximately 25.17% of geographic area (as per the India State of Forest Report 2023 by the Forest Survey of India — FSI)
Forest cover shortfall: India needs approximately 8 percentage points more cover to meet the 33% target
Forest land diversion for development is regulated under the Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980 (now amended as Van (Sanrakshan Evam Samridhi) Adhiniyam, 2023)
Joint Forest Management (JFM): A community-based approach promoted under the 1988 policy to involve local communities in forest protection

Connection to this news: The study's projections are contingent on India meeting its National Forest Policy targets — connecting the science of carbon sequestration directly to the policy imperative of achieving 33% forest cover. The study quantifies what successful forest policy implementation could mean for India's climate contributions.

Carbon Sequestration — Science and Mechanisms

Carbon sequestration refers to the process by which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere and stored in carbon sinks — primarily oceans, soil, and forests. Forests sequester carbon through photosynthesis, storing it in biomass (trunks, branches, roots) and soil organic matter.

Net Primary Productivity (NPP): The rate at which plants fix atmospheric carbon through photosynthesis minus what they lose through respiration; a key measure of a forest's carbon sink capacity
CO2 Fertilisation Effect: Elevated atmospheric CO2 levels enhance photosynthesis rates, allowing plants to grow faster under certain conditions — a key driver in the study's high-emissions scenario projection
Above-ground biomass vs. below-ground biomass: Total carbon in a forest includes biomass in trees, understorey, litter, and soil; India's forests hold approximately 7,204 million tonnes of carbon in above-ground biomass
Gross Primary Productivity (GPP): Total photosynthetic carbon fixation; the study found that GPP rose until 2100 even in the most aggressive climate change scenario in the Eastern Himalayan region
Carbon density varies significantly: Tropical moist forests (Western Ghats, Northeast India) have very high carbon density; arid/semi-arid forests (Rajasthan) have lower per-hectare carbon but could contribute substantially through area

Connection to this news: The study leveraged Gross Primary Productivity modelling to project forest carbon storage under different emissions scenarios — demonstrating that India's forests, even under climate stress, can serve as significant carbon sinks if forest cover expands to meet policy targets.

India's Climate Commitments — NDC and Net Zero Target

India's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement represents the country's voluntary pledge for climate action.

Updated NDC (August 2022): India pledged to reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 (from 2005 levels); achieve 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030; create additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2030 through forest and tree cover
NDC 2031–2035 (approved 2026): Enhanced ambition — carbon sink target raised to 3.5–4.0 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2035; non-fossil fuel capacity target raised to 60% by 2035
Net Zero by 2070: India announced a long-term net zero target at COP26 (Glasgow, 2021); India would be among the last major economies to reach net zero, given its development imperatives
India's cumulative achievement: As of 2021, India had created 2.29 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent carbon sink through afforestation and ecosystem restoration
CBDR-RC principle: India's NDC frames its commitments under the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities — arguing developed nations must do more given their historical cumulative emissions

Connection to this news: The study's projection of 2.5 billion additional tonnes of carbon storage by 2100 directly corroborates India's forest-based NDC targets — providing scientific validation that meeting the National Forest Policy's 33% cover target could fulfil a substantial portion of India's climate commitments.

Key Afforestation and Forest Programmes in India

India operates several flagship programmes to expand forest cover and enhance carbon sinks:

Green India Mission (GIM): One of the 8 missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC, 2008); targets 5 million hectares of forest restoration and afforestation; enhancing forest cover on 5 million additional ha
National Afforestation Programme (NAP): Centrally Sponsored Scheme for afforestation of degraded forest lands through Forest Development Agencies (FDAs)
CAMPA (Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority): Manages funds collected from industries diverting forest land for non-forest use; CAMPA Act, 2016 constituted this authority; collections exceed ₹55,000 crore
Bonn Challenge: India pledged to restore 26 million hectares of degraded land by 2030 under this international commitment
Green Credit Programme (2023): Domestic market mechanism under the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986 that allows entities to earn tradeable green credits for voluntary environmental actions including tree plantation
Forest Survey of India (FSI): Under the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change; publishes biennial India State of Forest Report; uses satellite imagery (RESOURCESAT-2) for assessment

Connection to this news: The study's optimistic carbon storage projection assumes sustained implementation of these programmes and achievement of forest policy targets — making the continued funding and effectiveness of GIM, CAMPA, and NAP critical to realising India's climate potential.

UNFCCC Framework — Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

Under the UNFCCC framework, countries must account for carbon emissions and removals from the land sector under LULUCF (also referred to as the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use — AFOLU — sector in IPCC terminology).

LULUCF includes: Forest land, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements, other land
Kyoto Protocol (1997) established rules for forest carbon accounting under Articles 3.3 and 3.4; the Paris Agreement extended these obligations
India's LULUCF sector is currently a net carbon sink (forests absorb more CO2 than land-use change emits)
IPCC AR6 (2022): Confirmed that forests are among the most cost-effective natural climate solutions for carbon removal; tropical and subtropical forests in South and Southeast Asia are particularly significant
Nature-Based Solutions (NbS): The Paris Agreement and subsequent COP decisions recognise forests as critical NbS for climate mitigation; India's forest carbon sink target is its primary NbS commitment

Connection to this news: The study's findings position India's forests as major Nature-Based Solutions assets — showing that investment in forest protection and expansion is not merely an environmental goal but a quantifiable climate mitigation strategy with global significance under the Paris Agreement framework.

Key Facts & Data

Carbon storage projection: Up to 2.5 billion additional tonnes by 2100 (nearly double current stocks)
Biomass increase range: 35% (low-emissions scenario) to 97% (high-emissions scenario) by 2100
Over 60% of projected carbon growth: In arid and semi-arid margins (Rajasthan, Gujarat)
India's existing forest carbon achievement: 2.29 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent (as of 2021)
National Forest Policy, 1988 target: 33% of total geographical area under forest and tree cover
India's current forest and tree cover: ~25.17% (India State of Forest Report 2023)
India's NDC forest target (2022–2030): Additional 2.5–3 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent carbon sink by 2030
India's updated NDC forest target (2031–2035): 3.5–4 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent by 2035
India's net zero target: 2070 (announced COP26, Glasgow)
CAMPA funds collected: Over ₹55,000 crore (for compensatory afforestation)
Bonn Challenge pledge: Restore 26 million hectares of degraded land by 2030