Ahead of ‘below-normal’ monsoon, build resilience and account for costs

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first Long Range Forecast (LRF) for the 2026 South West Monsoon on 13 April 2026, predicting below-norma...

What Happened

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first Long Range Forecast (LRF) for the 2026 South West Monsoon on 13 April 2026, predicting below-normal rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
This is the first below-normal monsoon forecast in three years; there is a 35% probability of a deficient monsoon (below 90% of LPA) and a 31% probability of a below-normal outcome (90–95% of LPA), with only a combined 34% chance of normal, above-normal, or excess rainfall.
The primary driver is the expected emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the second half of the South West Monsoon season (July–September), following a transition from the current weak La Niña through ENSO-neutral conditions.
Approximately 60% of India's farmers are fully dependent on monsoon rainfall for the Kharif cropping season; crops most vulnerable include rain-fed pulses and oilseeds grown in non-irrigated regions.
A poor monsoon arriving simultaneously with elevated fertiliser prices (due to the West Asia conflict), rising food inflation, and constrained fiscal space creates a compounded stress scenario requiring advance policy preparation.

Static Topic Bridges

IMD Monsoon Forecasting System

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), established in 1875 and operating under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, is India's national weather and climate forecasting agency. It issues a two-stage Long Range Forecast for the South West Monsoon: a first forecast in April and an updated forecast in May/June.

IMD was established: 1875; headquarters: New Delhi
Long Period Average (LPA): the 50-year average rainfall over the June–September monsoon season, used as the reference baseline; current LPA is approximately 87 cm for the country as a whole
Monsoon classification thresholds:
Excess: >110% of LPA
Above Normal: 105–110% of LPA
Normal: 96–104% of LPA
Below Normal: 90–95% of LPA
Deficient: <90% of LPA
2026 forecast: 92% of LPA (below normal range); first below-normal forecast since 2023
IMD uses statistical and dynamical models, sea surface temperature patterns, snow cover, and ENSO indices as primary predictors
South West Monsoon onset: typically 1 June in Kerala; withdrawal from northwest India: typically October

Connection to this news: A forecast of 92% of LPA means approximately 6.96 cm less rainfall than average across the country — a deviation that, spread unevenly across districts, can produce severe agricultural distress in rain-fed areas even if aggregate figures appear modest.

El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Monsoon

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary large-scale climate driver of year-to-year variability in the Indian South West Monsoon. El Niño refers to anomalous warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which typically suppresses Indian Ocean convection and weakens the monsoon circulation.

El Niño mechanism: warm Pacific SSTs shift the Walker circulation; the descending limb over the Indian Ocean weakens low-pressure systems over India, reducing moisture inflow
Historical correlation: approximately 60% of El Niño years are associated with below-normal or deficient monsoon in India; the 1982, 1987, 1997, 2002, 2009, and 2023 drought/weak monsoon years were all El Niño years
La Niña: opposite of El Niño (cool Pacific); associated with above-normal monsoon in India; 2020, 2021, 2022 all saw above-normal monsoon under La Niña conditions
ENSO Neutral: transitional phase; less predictable monsoon outcome
2026 scenario: currently weak La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral (April–June) and then expected El Niño emergence (July onwards — second half of monsoon)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are secondary modulators that can partially offset or amplify ENSO effects
Polar vortex disruptions and Eurasian snow cover are also factored in IMD models

Connection to this news: The particularly concerning feature of the 2026 forecast is the timing: El Niño is expected to strengthen precisely during July–September, which covers the most critical months for Kharif crop development (sowing typically May–July; grain filling August–September). Late-season deficiency at grain filling is agronomically more damaging than early-season deficit.

Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY)

PMFBY is India's flagship crop insurance scheme, launched on 18 February 2016, replacing the earlier National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) and Modified NAIS. It provides comprehensive coverage from pre-sowing to post-harvest losses due to natural calamities, pests, and diseases.

Launched: 18 February 2016; administered by Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare
Coverage: entire cropping cycle — pre-sowing (prevented sowing due to drought), standing crop losses, post-harvest losses (14 days), and localised risks (hailstorm, landslides)
Premium structure:
Kharif food and oilseed crops: maximum 2% of sum insured (farmer's share)
Rabi food and oilseed crops: maximum 1.5% (farmer's share)
Annual commercial/horticultural crops: maximum 5% (farmer's share)
Remaining premium subsidised equally by Centre and State governments
Scale: over 72.61 crore farmer applications enrolled over 9 years; 19.61 crore farmers have received claims
Claims paid: over ₹1,72,192 crore against farmer premium contribution of ₹34,507 crore
World's largest crop insurance scheme by farmer enrolments; third-largest by premium volume
2020 reform: made voluntary (not mandatory) for loanee farmers; states given option to opt out of food crops

Connection to this news: A below-normal monsoon significantly raises PMFBY's claims liability, particularly in rain-fed districts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. Pre-positioning of actuarial data, satellite monitoring (Crop Cutting Experiment digitisation), and early claim processing will be critical to prevent the settlement delays that have historically undermined farmer trust in the scheme.

NDRF/SDRF Framework and Drought Response

The Disaster Management Act, 2005 — enacted by Parliament following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and earlier disasters — establishes the institutional framework for disaster response in India, including mechanisms for drought management.

Disaster Management Act, 2005: enacted 23 December 2005
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA): established under the Act; Prime Minister is ex-officio Chairperson
State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF): primary fund for immediate relief; Centre:State contribution ratio = 75:25 (general states) and 90:10 (North-Eastern and Himalayan states); reviewed every 5 years by the Finance Commission
National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF): constituted under Section 46 of the Act; supplements SDRF when state resources are insufficient; entirely funded by Centre
Notified disasters eligible for SDRF/NDRF assistance include: drought, flood, cyclone, earthquake, hailstorm, landslide, avalanche, cloudburst, pest attack, frost, and cold wave
National Disaster Response Force (NDRF): constituted under Sections 44–45; 15 battalions of 1,149 personnel each; deployed for specialist response
Drought Manual: Ministry of Agriculture's "Manual for Drought Management" provides operational guidelines for drought declaration and relief at district/state level

Connection to this news: A below-normal monsoon that crosses the "deficient" threshold (below 90% LPA) in specific districts/states triggers the activation of SDRF drought relief norms. The 35% probability of a deficient outcome means that NDMA, state governments, and district administrations should be preparing contingency plans, pre-positioning relief funds, and activating drought early warning systems well before the monsoon concludes.

Key Facts & Data

IMD first LRF for SW Monsoon 2026: issued 13 April 2026
2026 forecast: 92% of Long Period Average (LPA)
LPA (reference baseline): approximately 87 cm (June–September average for India)
Monsoon classification: Below Normal = 90–95% LPA; Deficient = below 90% LPA
Probability of deficient monsoon 2026: 35%
Probability of below-normal monsoon 2026: 31%
Probability of normal/above-normal/excess: 34% combined
El Niño expected: second half of SW Monsoon (July onwards); currently weak La Niña
IMD established: 1875; under Ministry of Earth Sciences
PMFBY launched: 18 February 2016
PMFBY premium (farmer): 2% (Kharif food crops), 1.5% (Rabi), 5% (commercial/horticultural)
PMFBY enrolments (cumulative): 72.61 crore farmer applications
PMFBY claims paid: over ₹1,72,192 crore
Rain-fed agriculture dependency: ~60% of India's farmers depend entirely on monsoon for Kharif
Disaster Management Act: enacted 23 December 2005
SDRF Centre:State ratio: 75:25 (general); 90:10 (NE/Himalayan states)
NDRF: constituted under Section 46 of DM Act, 2005; entirely funded by Centre
NDRF (National Disaster Response Force): 15 battalions, 1,149 personnel each