The trust deficit in India-Bangladesh ties

Bangladeshi diplomatic circles have indicated that Dhaka expected engagement on substantive bilateral issues — particularly the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Wat...

What Happened

Bangladeshi diplomatic circles have indicated that Dhaka expected engagement on substantive bilateral issues — particularly the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty, which expires in December 2026 — rather than a predominant focus on illegal immigration rhetoric from New Delhi.
The emphasis on undocumented immigration in Indian official communication is perceived in Dhaka as an attempt to frame Bangladesh as a problem state, rather than as a partner requiring issue-based dialogue.
The bilateral relationship has been under strain since the political transition in Bangladesh in August 2024: India suspended visa services in December 2025 (partially restored in early 2026), Dhaka summoned the Indian High Commissioner five times over various concerns, and growing warmth in Bangladesh's ties with Pakistan and China has deepened Indian concerns.
The trust deficit has concrete consequences: the Ganga Water Treaty — which must be renegotiated or renewed before December 2026 — involves complex formula-based water-sharing that requires good-faith technical and political engagement between both sides.

Static Topic Bridges

The 1996 Ganga Water Treaty: Background, Formula, and Expiry

The Ganga Water Treaty, signed on December 12, 1996, between India and Bangladesh, is a 30-year bilateral agreement governing the sharing of Ganga (Ganges) waters at the Farakka Barrage during the dry season (January 1 to May 31 each year). The treaty resolved prolonged disputes over water diversion caused by the Farakka Barrage, constructed in 1975 in West Bengal to flush sediment from Kolkata Port and maintain the Hooghly river's navigability.

The treaty uses historical flow data (1949–1988) measured at Farakka Barrage during 10-day periods to determine allocation.
Water-sharing formula: If total flow at Farakka is 70,000 cusecs or less, flow is split 50:50; if flow is between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh receives 35,000 cusecs; if flow exceeds 75,000 cusecs, India retains 40,000 cusecs and Bangladesh gets the remainder.
The treaty contains a guarantee clause: Bangladesh is assured a minimum of 35,000 cusecs during the most critical 10-day period in any year.
Bangladesh has frequently received less than its allocated share during driest months (March–April) when flows fall below the 70,000 cusecs baseline — a persistent implementation grievance.
The treaty expires on December 31, 2026 — making 2026 a critical window for renegotiation or renewal.

Connection to this news: The Ganga Treaty expiry is one of Bangladesh's most pressing bilateral concerns. Dhaka's frustration that immigration discourse is crowding out water treaty discussions reflects a diplomatic prioritisation mismatch that, if unresolved, risks the treaty lapsing without a successor framework — with consequences for millions of Bangladeshi farmers dependent on dry-season Ganga flows.

Farakka Barrage and Transboundary River Management

The Farakka Barrage, completed in 1975, is a diversion structure on the Ganga in West Bengal, 18 km from the Bangladesh border. Its purpose is to divert water into the Hooghly (Bhagirathi) river to flush sediment and restore navigability of Kolkata Port. The barrage became the centrepiece of a prolonged water dispute, as diversion during the dry season reduced flows into Bangladesh, affecting agriculture, navigation, and freshwater availability in the Padma river system.

The Farakka dispute is one of the most studied cases in international water law, pre-dating the 1997 UN Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses.
India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers in total; the Ganga/Padma is the most politically significant.
The interim Farakka agreements of 1977, 1982, and 1985 preceded the 1996 treaty and demonstrated the feasibility of formula-based sharing.
The Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), established in 1972, is the bilateral body responsible for coordinating water-sharing data and technical cooperation; its effectiveness depends on diplomatic normalcy.
Bangladesh has raised concerns about upstream water abstractions in India, climate change reducing total flows, and the need for a climate-adjusted sharing formula in any renewed treaty.

Connection to this news: The pending Ganga Treaty renewal requires active JRC engagement and high-level political commitment. The current trust deficit — marked by suspended visa services, frequent diplomatic summoning, and rhetorical friction — creates exactly the conditions under which technical negotiations fail to advance, making a timely renewal before December 2026 uncertain.

India's Neighbourhood First Policy and the Bangladesh Relationship

India's "Neighbourhood First" policy, articulated since 2014, prioritises engagement with SAARC members and other immediate neighbours through economic integration, connectivity, and people-to-people ties. Bangladesh was historically the centrepiece of this policy's success — strong bilateral trade, transit connectivity, power grid integration, and security cooperation characterised the relationship during the 2009–2024 period.

Bangladesh is India's largest trading partner in South Asia; bilateral trade exceeded $14 billion in FY2024.
India provides approximately 1,160 MW of electricity to Bangladesh through cross-border grid connections.
Security cooperation included Bangladesh handing over operatives of northeastern Indian insurgent groups sheltering in Bangladesh — a significant Indian security gain.
After the political transition in August 2024 (with the formation of an interim government under Muhammad Yunus), bilateral dynamics shifted: India's close association with the previous government became a liability; Dhaka began recalibrating its strategic partnerships.
India suspended visa services in December 2025 (citing instability); partial restoration was announced in February 2026.
Dhaka summoned the Indian High Commissioner five times over varied concerns; New Delhi called in the Bangladeshi High Commissioner once.

Connection to this news: The Neighbourhood First policy's success is premised on consistent, interest-based engagement. The current framing of Bangladesh primarily through an immigration security lens — rather than as a development partner requiring water-sharing, trade, and connectivity dialogue — risks a sustained deterioration of the most productive bilateral relationship in South Asia.

Illegal Immigration and the NRC: India's Internal Security Dimension

India's concern about undocumented migration from Bangladesh into Assam and other northeastern states has been a persistent internal security issue. The National Register of Citizens (NRC) exercise in Assam (2018–2019) was designed to identify illegal immigrants; approximately 1.9 million people were excluded from the final list (though this figure has been legally contested). The immigration issue intersects with border management, identity politics, and demographic anxieties in frontier states.

India and Bangladesh share a 4,156 km land border — one of the world's longest bilateral land boundaries — with significant stretches running through difficult terrain and riverine areas.
The Border Security Force (BSF) manages the Indian side; border fencing covers a substantial but incomplete portion.
Bangladesh has consistently denied that it is a source of large-scale undocumented migration, arguing that many of those excluded from the NRC are Indian Muslims who cannot prove citizenship due to documentation gaps — not Bangladeshi nationals.
The Rohingya issue adds a separate layer: approximately 1 million Rohingya refugees are in Bangladesh, and India has expressed concern about onward movement into Indian territory.
Dhaka's expectation, per the article, is that the immigration question be handled bilaterally through established border management mechanisms rather than as a rhetorical frame that dominates the entire bilateral relationship.

Connection to this news: The tension the article describes — Dhaka expecting less immigration rhetoric and more focus on treaty renewal — captures a structural divergence in how the two sides prioritise the bilateral agenda. For India, immigration is a domestic political and security issue; for Bangladesh, it is a diplomatic affront that subsumes more tractable bilateral wins like water sharing and trade.

Key Facts & Data

The 1996 Ganga Water Treaty expires on December 31, 2026 — making this year the last opportunity for renegotiation or renewal.
Treaty signed December 12, 1996 by the Prime Ministers of India and Bangladesh.
Water-sharing formula: 50:50 split if flow at Farakka is 70,000 cusecs or less; Bangladesh guaranteed minimum 35,000 cusecs in the most critical 10-day period.
India and Bangladesh share 54 transboundary rivers.
The India-Bangladesh land border is 4,156 km — one of the world's longest bilateral land boundaries.
Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh exceeded $14 billion in FY2024; Bangladesh is India's largest South Asian trading partner.
India supplies approximately 1,160 MW of electricity to Bangladesh through cross-border grid connections.
The August 2024 political transition in Bangladesh led to deterioration in bilateral relations; India suspended visa services in December 2025 (partially restored February 2026).
Dhaka summoned the Indian High Commissioner five times following the August 2024 transition over various bilateral concerns.
Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), the bilateral body for water data and technical cooperation, was established in 1972.
India's NRC exercise in Assam (2018–2019) excluded approximately 1.9 million people from the final citizens' list.