China's FM talks to Rubio, says Taiwan 'biggest risk' in ties

China's Foreign Minister held a phone call with the US Secretary of State, explicitly stating that the Taiwan question "constitutes the biggest risk" in Chin...

What Happened

China's Foreign Minister held a phone call with the US Secretary of State, explicitly stating that the Taiwan question "constitutes the biggest risk" in China-US relations and concerns China's core interests.
During the call, China urged the US to "keep its promises and make the right choices" to open new space for bilateral cooperation.
The call occurred weeks ahead of a planned mid-May summit between the two countries' heads of state in Beijing — the highest-level direct engagement between the two powers in the current diplomatic cycle.
China acknowledged that bilateral ties "have generally remained stable" under recent strategic guidance from both sides, while maintaining that Taiwan remains the central red line.
The call also touched on the broader geopolitical situation, including complications arising from the ongoing conflict in Iran and its energy and trade consequences.

Static Topic Bridges

Taiwan: Historical Background and the Cross-Strait Dispute

The Taiwan dispute originates from the Chinese Civil War (1945–1949). After the Communist Party of China (CPC) won the mainland, the Republic of China (ROC) government retreated to Taiwan. Since then, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has claimed Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, while Taiwan has functioned as a self-governing democratic entity.

In 1949, the ROC government established itself in Taipei; the PRC was proclaimed in Beijing.
Taiwan's international status has never been formally resolved: it is not a UN member state (the PRC holds China's UN seat since 1971, when UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 transferred representation).
Taiwan governs itself with its own constitution, military, currency, and elected government.
The PRC has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification; its 2005 Anti-Secession Law authorizes military action if Taiwan formally declares independence or if "peaceful reunification" becomes impossible.
As of 2026, Taiwan maintains formal diplomatic relations with a small number of states; most countries maintain unofficial ties.

Connection to this news: China's insistence that Taiwan is the "biggest risk" in US-China relations signals that any warming of bilateral ties — including the upcoming summit — is conditional on US restraint regarding Taiwan.

US One-China Policy vs. PRC One-China Principle

The United States maintains a "One China Policy" — distinct from the PRC's own "One China Principle." This distinction is a central source of diplomatic tension and is frequently tested when US-Taiwan relations advance.

US One China Policy: Anchored in three Sino-US Joint Communiqués (1972, 1979, 1982), the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), and the Six Assurances (1982).
The US "acknowledges" (does not "recognize") that Chinese on both sides of the Strait maintain there is one China and that Taiwan is part of China.
The Taiwan Relations Act (1979) commits the US to provide Taiwan with defensive arms and treat any threat to Taiwan's security as a matter of serious concern to the US.
PRC One China Principle: Asserts indisputable sovereignty over Taiwan; characterizes it as a domestic issue on which third parties have no right to interfere.
Key distinction: The US policy is deliberately ambiguous — it neither endorses PRC sovereignty over Taiwan nor supports formal Taiwan independence.

Connection to this news: When China's FM tells the US to "keep its promises," the reference is primarily to the commitments in the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué and subsequent agreements — China interprets these as implying the US should not upgrade official ties with Taiwan or support its independence bid.

US-China Relations: Structure of Competition and Cooperation

The US-China relationship is the defining bilateral relationship of the 21st century, characterized by deep economic interdependence alongside strategic competition across technology, military, geopolitics, and ideology. The two countries are each other's largest trading partners in some categories while simultaneously being rivals across multiple domains.

The US-China trade relationship involves trillions of dollars in annual bilateral trade; tariff wars since 2018 have restructured but not severed economic links.
The 2024–26 period has seen partial tariff de-escalation and resumption of military-to-military communications channels, which had been suspended after 2022.
Key areas of competition: semiconductor technology, AI, space, South China Sea, Taiwan, Indo-Pacific alliances (Quad, AUKUS), and influence in Global South.
Areas of cooperation or shared interest: climate change, counternarcotics (particularly fentanyl), economic stability, and nuclear non-proliferation.
The planned US-China summit in May 2026 is intended to manage the bilateral relationship and establish guardrails, particularly amid the global disruption from the Iran conflict.

Connection to this news: The phone call between the two countries' top diplomats is the pre-summit groundwork — each side is signalling its red lines. Taiwan is China's most explicit red line, reiterated at every level of official communication.

Taiwan Strait Military Dynamics

The Taiwan Strait — approximately 180 km wide at its narrowest — is one of the world's most militarized maritime zones. Regular military activities by both the PRC and the US (through Freedom of Navigation Operations and arms sales to Taiwan) keep tensions elevated.

PRC has conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan (notably after high-profile US-Taiwan interactions, e.g., 2022 exercises following a US congressional visit).
The US Seventh Fleet operates in the Indo-Pacific and conducts periodic transits of the Taiwan Strait, which China contests but does not physically prevent.
Taiwan Relations Act (TRA): Passed in 1979, it mandates US provision of defensive arms to Taiwan and commits the US to maintain capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion against Taiwan.
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has modernized significantly since the 1990s; analysts assess the cross-strait military balance has shifted toward China, but a PLA amphibious invasion remains complex and costly.
The geopolitical context of the 2026 Iran war has reinforced debates in Washington about whether simultaneous crises in the Middle East and Taiwan Strait are manageable.

Connection to this news: China's insistence that Taiwan is the "biggest risk" is partly a messaging exercise ahead of the summit, reminding the US that any closer military cooperation with Taiwan or arms sales will be seen as a direct threat to bilateral stability.

Key Facts & Data

UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 (1971): Transferred the "China" seat from the ROC (Taiwan) to the PRC.
Taiwan Relations Act: Enacted by the US Congress in 1979; provides legal basis for US arms sales to Taiwan and US security commitment.
Three Sino-US Joint Communiqués: Shanghai (1972), Normalization (1979), August 17 (1982).
PRC Anti-Secession Law: Passed in 2005; authorizes military action if Taiwan declares formal independence.
Taiwan Strait width: approximately 180 km (varies by measurement point).
US-China bilateral trade: among the largest bilateral trade relationships globally.
Planned US-China summit: mid-May 2026, Beijing.
China's position: Taiwan is a "core interest" and the biggest risk to bilateral ties.
US position: maintains "deliberate ambiguity" — does not endorse PRC sovereignty claims or Taiwanese formal independence.