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Trump says U.S. will have Strait of Hormuz 'open fairly soon'


What Happened

  • President Donald Trump stated that the United States will have the Strait of Hormuz "open fairly soon," signalling continued pressure on Iran to lift its blockade of the critical waterway.
  • Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz since approximately February 28, 2026, following US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
  • Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has carried out at least 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships and has reportedly laid sea mines in the strait.
  • A two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan was agreed on April 8, 2026, but the Hormuz blockade showed no signs of lifting even after the agreement.
  • Iran's new supreme leadership declared the country would continue to control the waterway and has moved to impose transit fees of up to $2 million per vessel or $1 per barrel of oil shipped.
  • The International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol described the disruption as more serious than the 1973, 1979, and 2002 energy crises combined — "the world has never experienced a disruption to energy supply of such magnitude."
  • Oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel as a result of the blockade.
  • Trump had earlier threatened to bomb Iranian power plants if the strait was not opened by a deadline, but later agreed to suspend attacks in exchange for Hormuz reopening.

Static Topic Bridges

Strait of Hormuz — Geography and Strategic Significance

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is the world's most critical maritime chokepoint for energy trade.

  • Located between Iran (north) and Oman (south); approximately 90 nautical miles long and only 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point.
  • Approximately 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through this strait.
  • Up to 30% of internationally traded fertilisers also transit via Hormuz.
  • Major oil exporters dependent on this route include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran itself.

Connection to this news: Iran's blockade since February 2026 has effectively shut off a quarter of the world's seaborne oil supply, causing the worst energy disruption in recorded history and forcing emergency responses from consumer nations including India.

UNCLOS and the Right of Transit Passage

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) establishes the legal framework for international straits. Under Article 38, all ships — commercial and military — enjoy the right of "transit passage" through straits used for international navigation. This right cannot be suspended by coastal states (Article 44).

  • Transit passage under UNCLOS means continuous and expeditious movement; coastal states cannot impede it.
  • Article 26 of UNCLOS prohibits coastal states from levying charges on foreign ships merely for passage through a strait; charges are only allowed as payment for specific services rendered.
  • Iran's $2 million transit toll violates Article 26, as acknowledged by legal experts and Oman itself, which borders the southern side of the strait.
  • Neither Iran nor the United States has ratified UNCLOS, but transit passage is regarded as customary international law binding on all states.

Connection to this news: Iran's imposition of toll charges and the unilateral assertion of control over the strait directly violates the UNCLOS transit passage regime — the core legal basis the US, EU, and regional states cite in condemning Iran's actions.

India's Energy Dependence and West Asia Policy

India imports approximately 85–88% of its crude oil, with a significant share sourced from Persian Gulf nations that export through the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged closure affects India's energy security, inflation, and fiscal arithmetic directly.

  • India's top crude oil suppliers include Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait — all Persian Gulf nations dependent on the Hormuz route.
  • Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices have surged globally, forcing the Indian government to announce relief measures for domestic carriers.
  • India follows a policy of strategic autonomy and has traditionally maintained engagement with both the US and Iran (e.g., Chabahar Port access); the current crisis tests this balancing act.

Connection to this news: India is a key non-belligerent stakeholder. The Hormuz blockade has directly raised India's energy import costs, triggered a domestic aviation crisis, and forced the government to introduce relief for airlines — underscoring India's vulnerability to instability in West Asia.

Key Facts & Data

  • The Strait is approximately 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point.
  • About 25% of world seaborne oil and 20% of global LNG transits through it annually.
  • Iran's IRGC has conducted at least 21 ship attacks since February 28, 2026.
  • Oil prices crossed $110/barrel following the blockade — the highest since early 2022.
  • A two-week US-Iran ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, but disputed in its terms.
  • Iran's proposed transit fee of up to $2 million per vessel or $1/barrel violates UNCLOS Article 26.
  • The IEA called it the worst energy supply disruption in world history — worse than the combined 1973, 1979, and 2002 crises.