What Happened
- With the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis severely disrupting global fertiliser shipments, Russia has positioned itself as an alternative supplier to Global South nations, capitalising on its Hormuz-independent export infrastructure.
- Fertiliser prices have surged sharply: urea prices in the US Gulf jumped from ~$350/tonne in late 2025 to over $800/tonne by late March 2026, a rise of over 50% since the conflict began.
- In Egypt, granular urea FOB prices reached ~$700/tonne, up from $400–490 before the war.
- Around one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Nations.
- Importers in Nigeria and Ghana have already begun pre-purchasing Russian fertilisers for Q3 2026.
- Russia's Agriculture Ministry suspended ammonium nitrate exports for at least one month in March 2026, citing domestic spring planting needs — a move that tightened global supplies further.
- India faces the largest absolute fertiliser disruption volume: nearly 10 million metric tonnes (MMT) sourced from the Gulf in 2024, representing approximately 54% of its total fertiliser imports.
- Poorer, import-dependent countries in the Global South — including sub-Saharan Africa — are most exposed to the resulting food security risks.
Static Topic Bridges
Russia's Global Fertiliser Market Position
Russia is one of the world's largest fertiliser exporters across all three major nutrient categories. It accounts for approximately 23% of global ammonia exports, 14% of global urea exports, and — together with Belarus — around 40% of global potash exports. Critically, Russia's entire fertiliser export infrastructure bypasses the Strait of Hormuz: shipments flow through Baltic Sea and Black Sea ports (notably Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga), keeping supply chains intact even as Gulf routes collapse. This geographic advantage has transformed a geopolitical crisis into an export opportunity for Moscow.
- Russia: ~23% global ammonia exports, ~14% urea exports.
- Russia + Belarus: ~40% global potash exports.
- Major Russian fertiliser companies: PhosAgro (phosphates), Uralchem, EuroChem.
- Russia was already the world's largest fertiliser exporter by volume before the 2026 crisis.
- Ammonium nitrate export suspension (March 2026): minimum one month, domestic priority.
Connection to this news: Russia's offer of expanded agricultural exports to the Global South is a strategic move — filling a supply vacuum caused by the Hormuz crisis while simultaneously strengthening diplomatic ties with nations that have remained neutral in the broader Iran-US-Israel conflict.
India's Fertiliser Import Dependence
India is heavily reliant on fertiliser imports to sustain agricultural productivity for its 1.4+ billion population. India imports approximately 20–25 MMT of fertilisers annually, with the Gulf region — particularly Saudi Arabia (SABIC, Ma'aden), Qatar (Qatar Fertiliser Company), and Iran — supplying a large share. The government subsidises fertilisers heavily under the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) scheme for P&K fertilisers and a fixed MRP scheme for urea, making global price spikes a significant fiscal burden. India's fertiliser subsidy bill has previously touched ₹2.5 lakh crore in a single year (FY2022-23) during previous commodity shocks.
- India's total fertiliser consumption: ~55–60 MMT/year (NPK combined).
- Gulf-sourced fertilisers: ~10 MMT/year (54% of total imports per 2024 data).
- Urea is the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser in India; ~90% of domestic urea requirement met by imports + subsidised domestic production.
- Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS): covers phosphatic and potassic fertilisers; administered by MoC&F.
- Kharif and Rabi seasons create demand peaks when import disruptions are most damaging.
Connection to this news: The Hormuz crisis has directly disrupted the ~10 MMT pipeline that India draws from Gulf producers, making Russia's offer of expanded supply particularly significant for India's agricultural planning ahead of the Kharif season.
Global Food Security and the Fertiliser-Food Nexus
Fertilisers — particularly nitrogen (urea/ammonium nitrate), phosphorus (DAP/MAP), and potassium (MOP/SOP) — are the backbone of modern agricultural productivity. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimates that without synthetic fertilisers, global food production would fall by roughly 50%, as natural soil nutrient replenishment cannot sustain current yields. Fertiliser price shocks translate into food price inflation with a 3–6 month lag (the crop cycle), disproportionately affecting low-income countries with high food-import dependence. The 2021–22 fertiliser crisis (triggered by supply chain disruptions and Russia-Ukraine tensions) contributed to the 2022 global food crisis that left an estimated 345 million people acutely food insecure.
- FAO: ~50% of global food production depends on synthetic fertiliser inputs.
- 2022 global food crisis: 345 million people acutely food insecure (WFP estimate).
- Sub-Saharan Africa particularly vulnerable: 85–90% fertiliser import-dependent, limited foreign exchange reserves.
- Fertiliser price-to-food price transmission lag: approximately 3–6 months (one crop cycle).
- UN special report (2023): fertiliser affordability crises in low-income countries cause yield reductions of 20–40%.
Connection to this news: The Hormuz-driven fertiliser price surge risks replicating or exceeding the 2022 food security crisis, with the Global South again bearing the largest burden — making Russia's expanded supply offers not merely commercial but geopolitically consequential.
Key Facts & Data
- ~1/3 of global seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz (UN estimate).
- Urea price surge: $350/tonne (late 2025) → $800+/tonne (March 2026) — >50% increase.
- India's Gulf fertiliser sourcing: ~10 MMT/year = 54% of total imports.
- Russia: 23% of global ammonia exports, 14% of urea exports.
- Russia + Belarus: ~40% of global potash exports.
- Nigeria and Ghana already pre-purchasing Russian fertilisers for Q3 2026.
- India-GCC bilateral trade (FY2024-25): $178.56 billion (exports $56.87 bn, imports $121.68 bn).