Current Affairs Topics Archive
International Relations Economics Polity & Governance Environment & Ecology Science & Technology Internal Security Geography Social Issues Art & Culture Modern History

Rastriya Swatantra Party – the bell strikes

March 07, 2026 4 min read International Relations GS2 (International Relations India's Neighbourhood)
On This Page ▼

What Happened

  • Nepal's Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), led by Balendra "Balen" Shah, is headed for a landslide victory in Nepal's March 2026 general elections — the country's first since Gen-Z-led protests in September 2025 toppled PM KP Sharma Oli's coalition government despite its near two-thirds parliamentary majority.
  • As per early results from Nepal's Election Commission, RSP had won 53 seats and was leading in 67 more constituencies, making it the single largest party in the House of Representatives.
  • The RSP swept all 10 constituencies of Kathmandu, and Balen Shah himself defeated Oli in the latter's home constituency of Jhapa-5 by over 8,000 votes.
  • The outcome marks a decisive rejection of Nepal's traditional political establishment — the Nepal Communist Party (UML), Nepali Congress, and CPN-Maoist Centre — all of which suffered heavy losses.
  • The party, established in 2022 by former television journalist Rabi Lamichhane, campaigned on anti-corruption, government transparency, and systemic administrative reform; the RSP entered the 2026 election under Balen Shah's leadership after Lamichhane stepped back due to citizenship controversies.

Static Topic Bridges

India-Nepal Relations and the Treaty of Peace and Friendship (1950)

India and Nepal share a historically unique relationship, governed at its foundation by the Treaty of Peace and Friendship signed on 31 July 1950. The treaty provides for an open border, free movement of people, and mutual national treatment in employment — arrangements that tie the two countries more closely than any formal alliance. However, the treaty has increasingly been viewed in Nepal as a relic of an unequal relationship, with periodic demands for its revision or replacement.

  • The 1950 treaty was signed between India and the Rana Prime Minister of Nepal; Nepal's post-1951 democratic forces considered it to carry the baggage of that era.
  • An Eminent Persons Group (EPG) established in 2016 submitted a report recommending treaty revision, but India has not acted on it.
  • The Madhesi community of Nepal's Terai region — ethnically and culturally close to India's Bihar and UP — has historically been a proxy flashpoint in bilateral relations; Nepal's 2015 Constitution was seen as marginalising the Madhesi community, prompting India-backed protests and a prolonged economic blockade.
  • India-Nepal trade stood at approximately $8 billion annually as of 2024, with India as Nepal's largest trading partner and source of remittances.

Connection to this news: An RSP government, representing a break from the old political order, may seek to renegotiate the terms of India-Nepal relations, including the 1950 treaty. India will need to calibrate engagement carefully to avoid alienating a new leadership with strong anti-establishment credentials.

Nepal's Political Instability and China's Growing Presence

Nepal has had 13 governments in 16 years, making political instability a defining feature of post-federal-republic governance. This instability has been exploited by China, which has deepened economic and infrastructure engagement — particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which Nepal signed in 2017. China's Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network, including the Kerung-Kathmandu rail link, has been positioned as an alternative to Nepal's historical dependence on India for trade transit.

  • Nepal joined the BRI in 2017; however, actual project implementation has been slow.
  • The Kerung-Kathmandu railway feasibility study was funded by China; the project would give Nepal a northern trade route through Tibet.
  • India provides Nepal with its only access to sea ports (Kolkata/Haldia), a leverage that has shaped bilateral dynamics for decades.
  • The BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) Motor Vehicles Agreement aims to integrate regional connectivity, though Bhutan's participation has been delayed.

Connection to this news: The RSP's rise on an anti-establishment platform does not inherently signal a pro-China or anti-India tilt, but sustained political instability under any government creates space for Chinese influence to expand. India's early outreach to RSP leadership will be strategically significant.

Nepal's Gen-Z Protests and Democratic Accountability

The September 2025 protests in Nepal — driven largely by young, urban, digitally connected citizens — were modelled on a growing global pattern of Gen-Z-led political accountability movements (analogous to Bangladesh's 2024 student protests). Protesters demanded an end to corruption, dynastic political families, and the revolving-door coalition politics that had defined Nepal since the 2006 peace process.

  • The protests toppled KP Sharma Oli's government despite its commanding parliamentary majority — demonstrating the limits of formal legislative strength against mass mobilisation.
  • Nepal held elections under a Supreme Court directive following the dissolution of parliament.
  • The RSP's victory is particularly significant as it is the first time since the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Accord that neither of the two dominant communist parties (UML or Maoist) appears in the leading position.

Connection to this news: The RSP's win reflects a structural shift in Nepal's democratic culture, with implications for the sustainability of future governments and for India's neighbourhood diplomacy, which has historically relied on established party channels.

Key Facts & Data

  • RSP won 53 seats, leading in 67 more — projected to be the single largest party in Nepal's 275-seat House of Representatives.
  • Balen Shah defeated KP Sharma Oli in Jhapa-5 by over 8,000 votes (10,466 to 2,205 per early count).
  • RSP was founded in 2022 by former TV journalist Rabi Lamichhane.
  • Nepal has had 13 governments in approximately 16 years since the 2006 peace accord.
  • Nepal signed the BRI in 2017; no major project has been completed as of 2026.
  • India is Nepal's largest trading partner (~$8 billion annual bilateral trade, 2024).
  • 8.9 million Indians live across Gulf and South Asian diaspora; Nepal-India open border enables free movement of approximately 3-4 million Nepali workers in India.
  • The Gen-Z protests of September 2025 led to Oli government's fall; March 5 elections were the result.