What Happened
- External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar delivered a significant address at the 11th Raisina Dialogue (5–7 March 2026, New Delhi), stating that the future global order "will be much more multipolar."
- He argued that the era of big countries creating spheres of influence and reaching sweeping geopolitical compacts has effectively ended.
- Jaishankar said no single country today holds hegemony across so many domains that it can claim to be an "overall hegemon."
- He emphasised that multipolarity is not merely about the redistribution of GDP or material capabilities — different regions of the world are becoming "more contributive" in distinct spheres, creating a fragmented but balanced global landscape.
- On multilateralism, he warned that its success must not depend on weakening multipolarity: "The weakening of multipolarity is not going to happen."
- Jaishankar also noted that dynamics within Western countries are themselves shifting, adding another layer of complexity to the global order.
- The Global South — including nations across Africa, Asia, and Latin America — is asserting itself meaningfully in international affairs, he said.
- The remarks came in the context of an intensely volatile global environment following the US–Israel military strikes on Iran (28 February 2026) and a fractured international response.
Static Topic Bridges
Multipolarity — Concept and India's Position
Multipolarity refers to a distribution of international power in which more than two nation-states have roughly comparable levels of military, economic, and political influence. It contrasts with unipolarity (one dominant power, as in the immediate post-Cold War period under US hegemony) and bipolarity (two dominant powers, as during the Cold War between the US and USSR).
India has consistently advocated for a multipolar world order since the end of the Cold War. This is embedded in India's foreign policy doctrine of strategic autonomy — the freedom to make independent decisions on global issues without being aligned to or dominated by any power bloc.
Jaishankar's specific assertion — that no country can now claim hegemony across all domains — reflects the reality of a world where: - The US remains militarily dominant but faces economic challenges and political polarisation. - China is a major economic and military power but faces demographic and domestic pressures. - The EU, India, Russia, and the Gulf states hold regional or sector-specific leverage.
- India's foreign policy evolution: Non-Alignment (1947–1991) → Strategic Autonomy (1991–2014) → Multi-Alignment (2014–present).
- Non-Alignment 2.0 (term coined ~2012): Updated version of non-alignment emphasising equidistance and calibrated partnerships.
- Multi-alignment: India actively builds partnerships with the US, Russia, EU, China, and the Global South simultaneously, without exclusive bloc membership.
- Jaishankar's formulation directly challenges the idea that a new bipolar order (US vs China) is emerging — India rejects the "new Cold War" framing.
- India's BRICS membership, SCO membership, Quad membership, and Artemis Accords signing illustrate multi-alignment in practice.
Connection to this news: Jaishankar's Raisina Dialogue address is a public articulation of India's foundational foreign policy worldview — one that underpins why India has not taken sides in the Israel–Iran conflict, maintains ties with Russia despite Western sanctions, and engages with all major power blocs simultaneously.
Raisina Dialogue — India's Premier Geopolitics Forum
The Raisina Dialogue is India's flagship annual conference on geopolitics and geo-economics, hosted by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in partnership with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). It is comparable in prestige and format to Germany's Munich Security Conference or Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue.
The 11th edition (2026) was held in New Delhi from 5–7 March 2026, with the theme: "Saṁskāra: Assertion, Accommodation, Advancement" — reflecting the need for countries to assert national interests while cooperating for collective progress.
- Inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
- Keynote speaker: Alexander Stubb, President of Finland.
- Participation: ~2,700 participants from 110 countries.
- 2026 special initiative: Launch of the Raisina Science Diplomacy Initiative (SDI) — integrating technology (AI, semiconductors, Digital Public Infrastructure) into global foreign policy.
- The Dialogue hosts bilateral diplomatic meetings on its sidelines — including Jaishankar's meetings with Iran's Deputy FM and Israel's FM in 2026.
- First held in 2016; named after Raisina Hill, the location of India's key government buildings (South Block, North Block).
Connection to this news: Jaishankar's multipolar world statement was made in the context of one of the most consequential global events of early 2026 — the US–Israel strikes on Iran — providing the Raisina Dialogue with immediate geopolitical relevance.
Spheres of Influence — Historical Concept and Its Erosion
A sphere of influence refers to a spatial concept in international relations where a major power claims or exercises predominant authority over a region or set of smaller states — often without formal annexation. Classic examples include the Monroe Doctrine (US dominance over the Western Hemisphere), the Soviet bloc in Eastern Europe, or China's claimed historical influence over Southeast Asia.
Jaishankar's assertion that this era is "effectively ended" reflects several observable trends: - Smaller states increasingly pursue independent foreign policies, cultivating multiple partners. - Regional organisations (ASEAN, African Union, Gulf Cooperation Council) assert collective autonomy. - The proliferation of diplomatic forums (G20, BRICS, SCO, Quad, I2U2) allows countries to pick partnerships issue by issue. - Economic interdependence makes exclusive spheres costly — even China's BRI partners maintain ties with the West.
- The concept of spheres of influence predates modern international law and sits in tension with the UN Charter's principles of sovereign equality.
- Russia's Ukraine war (2022) and US–Israel strikes on Iran (2026) are contested in terms of whether they represent attempts to reassert or are failures of old-style sphere-of-influence thinking.
- India's neighbourhood policy operates somewhat against this — India is sensitive to outside power involvement in South Asia (historically resisted Chinese and US influence in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives).
Connection to this news: Jaishankar's speech reflects India's consistent rejection of a world where any power bloc — including a putative US-led West or China-led East — claims exclusive influence over India's strategic choices.
Key Facts & Data
- Raisina Dialogue 2026: 11th edition, 5–7 March 2026, New Delhi.
- Theme: "Saṁskāra: Assertion, Accommodation, Advancement."
- Organised by: Observer Research Foundation (ORF) + Ministry of External Affairs.
- Participation: ~2,700 participants from 110 countries.
- Inaugurated by: PM Narendra Modi.
- Keynote: Alexander Stubb, President of Finland.
- Jaishankar's key quote: "The future will be much more multipolar. The era of big countries creating spheres of influence and reaching huge compacts of a sweeping nature has effectively ended."
- India's foreign policy doctrine: Multi-alignment / Strategic Autonomy.
- India's multilateral memberships: BRICS, SCO, Quad, G20, ASEAN+, I2U2 (India–Israel–UAE–USA), Artemis Accords.
- Context: US–Israel strikes on Iran (28 February 2026) intensified global debate on unilateralism vs. multilateral norms.