What Happened
- In the early hours of February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale, coordinated military campaign against Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel).
- The operation targeted Iran's nuclear facilities (including Natanz), IRGC military infrastructure, missile production sites, air defence systems, naval assets, command centres, and senior leadership across multiple Iranian cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah.
- U.S. officials stated that 900 strikes were carried out in the first 12 hours; Israel deployed approximately 200 jets striking ~500 targets on the first day alone.
- Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reported killed in the initial airstrikes.
- Iran launched a massive retaliation — Operation True Promise IV — including drone and missile strikes on Israel and multiple Gulf Arab states (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia), and claimed attacks on 27 U.S. military bases in the Middle East.
- The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, triggering an immediate global energy crisis.
- By March 2, the conflict had become the most significant direct military confrontation in West Asia since the Gulf Wars.
Static Topic Bridges
Operation Epic Fury and the Strategic Context: Iran's Nuclear Programme
The immediate trigger for the operation was Iran's rapidly advancing nuclear programme. After the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, Iran progressively violated the agreement's enrichment limits, by 2026 enriching uranium to near-weapons-grade concentrations of up to 60% (with 90% being the threshold for weapons-grade material). Intelligence assessments suggested Iran could reach "breakout" — the ability to produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear device — within weeks.
- JCPOA signed: July 14, 2015 (between Iran and P5+1: U.S., UK, France, Russia, China, Germany)
- U.S. withdrawal from JCPOA: May 8, 2018 (Trump's first term, "maximum pressure" policy)
- Iran's enrichment post-withdrawal: progressively increased from 3.67% (JCPOA limit) to 20% (2021), then 60% (2023–2025)
- Key nuclear sites struck in Operation Epic Fury: Natanz (primary enrichment), Fordow (underground enrichment), Arak (heavy water reactor)
- Iran's ballistic missile programme: one of the largest in the Middle East; includes Shahab, Sejjil, and Fattah hypersonic missiles
- IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency): headquartered in Vienna; responsible for nuclear safeguards and inspection of Iran's nuclear sites under the NPT
- Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state; its enrichment activities were a violation of the Additional Protocol
Connection to this news: The joint U.S.-Israel attack was fundamentally a preventive strike against a near-nuclear Iran — the most dramatic illustration yet of the failure of 20+ years of diplomacy, sanctions, and covert action to durably halt Iran's nuclear ambitions. For UPSC, this connects to nuclear non-proliferation, the NPT regime's limitations, and the doctrine of preventive war in international law.
West Asia's Geopolitical Architecture: Sunni-Shia Divide and Proxy Networks
West Asia's conflicts are structured around two overlapping fault lines: (1) the Arab-Israeli conflict (Israel vs. its Arab and Iranian neighbours); and (2) the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide, which maps roughly onto a Saudi Arabia–Iran rivalry for regional hegemony. Iran (predominantly Shia, Persian) leads the "Axis of Resistance," while Saudi Arabia leads the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Sunni bloc. These two fault lines converged in the 2026 conflict.
- Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): established 1981; members: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman — all Sunni-majority states and U.S. security partners
- Iran's "Axis of Resistance": Hezbollah (Lebanon — Shia), Hamas (Gaza — Sunni but Iran-backed), Houthis / Ansar Allah (Yemen — Zaidi Shia), Shia militias in Iraq (PMF/PMU — Popular Mobilisation Forces), Bashar al-Assad's Syria (until 2024 collapse)
- Arab League: headquartered in Cairo; 22 member states; Iran is not a member; the League condemned Iran's missile strikes on Gulf Arab capitals
- UN Security Council: China and Russia vetoed Western-sponsored ceasefire resolutions; the UN Secretary-General called for immediate de-escalation
- Abraham Accords (2020): normalisation agreements between Israel and UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco — brokered by the Trump administration during his first term; these states are now under Iranian missile attack
Connection to this news: The 2026 war exposed the fragility of West Asia's geopolitical order. Gulf Arab states hosting U.S. troops became targets of Iranian retaliation despite not participating in the strikes — illustrating how the U.S. security umbrella over the Gulf is both a protection and a liability for these states.
India's Foreign Policy in West Asia: Strategic Autonomy Under Stress
India has traditionally maintained a policy of "strategic autonomy" in West Asia — meaning it avoids formal alignment with any single power bloc and pursues parallel relationships with the U.S., Israel, the Gulf Arab states, and Iran. This policy is driven by India's multidimensional interests: oil imports, diaspora welfare, remittances, trade routes, counter-terrorism cooperation, and connectivity projects like the Chabahar Port and INSTC. The 2026 U.S.-Iran war has placed this balancing act under unprecedented stress.
- India-Israel defence relationship: India is Israel's largest arms customer; bilateral defence trade exceeds $2 billion/year; collaboration on UAVs, missile systems, intelligence
- India-Iran relationship: Chabahar Port Agreement (signed 2016, expanded 2024) — India is developing Shahid Beheshti terminal; INSTC (International North-South Transport Corridor) runs through Iran
- India-U.S. relationship: Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership; QUAD member; Major Defence Partner; iCET (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies)
- India-GCC relationship: ~8.7–10 million Indian diaspora in Gulf; >$30 billion in annual remittances; India-UAE CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, 2022); India-GCC FTA negotiations ongoing
- India's position on the conflict: called for "immediate de-escalation," restraint from all parties, and protection of civilians — consistent with non-alignment tradition
- India's evacuation capability: previous operations include Operation Raahat (Yemen, 2015 — ~4,600 Indians evacuated), Operation Ajay (Israel-Gaza, 2023 — ~1,500 Indians), Operation Kaveri (Sudan, 2023)
Connection to this news: India faces a five-dimensional exposure to the West Asia war: (1) energy prices, (2) diaspora safety, (3) remittance flows, (4) the Chabahar/INSTC connectivity project through Iran, and (5) the pressure to take sides in a conflict involving its two key defence partners (U.S. and Israel) against a country it has significant economic ties with (Iran).
Key Facts & Data
- Date of attack: February 28, 2026 (U.S. and Israeli joint operation)
- Operation names: "Epic Fury" (U.S.), "Roaring Lion" (Israel)
- Scale: 900 U.S. strikes in first 12 hours; Israel deployed ~200 jets, struck ~500 targets on Day 1
- Targets: nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Arak), IRGC bases, missile sites, air defences, naval assets, leadership compounds
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei: reported killed in initial strikes
- Iran's retaliation: Operation True Promise IV — strikes on Israel, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia; attacks on 27 U.S. military bases
- JCPOA: signed July 14, 2015; U.S. withdrew May 8, 2018; Iran's enrichment by 2026: up to 60% purity
- NPT: Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; Iran is a signatory as a non-nuclear-weapon state
- IAEA: headquartered Vienna; responsible for Iran nuclear safeguards
- India-Israel defence trade: >$2 billion/year; India is Israel's largest arms customer
- Chabahar Port Agreement: signed 2016, expanded 2024; India developing Shahid Beheshti terminal
- Indian diaspora in GCC: ~8.7–10 million; remittances to India: >$30 billion/year
- GCC established: 1981; members: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman
- Abraham Accords: 2020; normalisation between Israel and UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco