Current Affairs Topics Archive
International Relations Economics Polity & Governance Environment & Ecology Science & Technology Internal Security Geography Social Issues Art & Culture Modern History

Israel, the U.S. and a war to build a unipolar West Asia

March 02, 2026 5 min read International Relations GS2 (International Relations Effect of Policies of Developed Countries on India's Interests)
On This Page ▼

What Happened

  • Joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, triggered a full-scale conflict that rapidly escalated into a multi-front war spanning Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Gulf states.
  • The strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior military and Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) figures, dismantling the upper echelon of Iran's security establishment.
  • Israel's strategic objective — framed as degrading Iran's "forward deterrence" architecture — targeted the network of non-state armed actors that Tehran had cultivated across the Levant and the broader region to project power and deter military action against Iran itself.
  • Hezbollah entered the conflict within two days, driven more by the killing of Khamenei (a paramount religious authority for Lebanese Shia) than by strategic strength — the group had already been significantly weakened by two years of prior Israeli targeted assassinations and infrastructure strikes.
  • Analysts at institutions including Chatham House, RAND, and the Eurasia Review assessed the conflict as reflecting not merely reactive security logic but a deliberate Israeli-US effort to reshape the regional balance of power toward a US-backed unipolar order in West Asia.
  • Broader concerns have been raised that a passive or supportive US approach to Israel's expansionist agenda risks destabilising the region with severe downstream consequences for global energy security and US strategic interests.

Static Topic Bridges

Iran's "Forward Defence" Doctrine and the Axis of Resistance

Iran's foreign policy for decades has rested on a concept known as "strategic depth" or "forward defence" — the cultivation of non-state armed actors across the Middle East to project power beyond its borders and to deter adversaries from directly attacking Iranian territory. This network, often called the "Axis of Resistance," includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. By keeping adversaries engaged on multiple fronts far from Iranian soil, Tehran aimed to raise the cost of any direct strike sufficiently to maintain deterrence.

  • Hezbollah, established in 1982 with Iranian support, is the most powerful non-state armed actor in the Middle East, with an estimated arsenal of over 150,000 rockets before the 2024-2026 conflict period.
  • The Houthis (Ansar Allah) have controlled large parts of Yemen since 2015 and escalated Red Sea attacks on international shipping during the Gaza conflict, disrupting global trade through the Suez Canal route.
  • Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) coordinates the Axis of Resistance; the IRGC-Quds Force has been designated as a foreign terrorist organisation by the United States since 2019.

Connection to this news: US-Israeli strikes specifically targeted this forward defence architecture as a strategic objective, not merely as collateral damage — the goal was to eliminate Iran's capacity to deter military action by destroying its regional proxy network.

Abraham Accords and the Reconfiguration of West Asian Alliances

The Abraham Accords, brokered by the US in 2020, established diplomatic normalization between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco — the most significant reshaping of Arab-Israeli relations since Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) signed peace treaties with Israel. The Accords bypassed the traditional Arab demand that Palestinian statehood must precede normalization, establishing a new model of transactional diplomacy based on shared security interests against Iran and economic incentives. Saudi Arabia's potential normalization with Israel — under active US mediation before October 2023 — would have been the most consequential expansion of the framework.

  • The Abraham Accords were signed in September 2020, mediated by the Trump administration's team including Jared Kushner.
  • The Accords enabled Israeli access to Gulf airspace, expanded intelligence sharing, and initiated defence cooperation between former adversaries.
  • Post-October 7, 2023 (Hamas attack on Israel), the Gaza conflict severely strained the Abraham Accords framework, as Arab public opinion turned sharply against normalization.
  • The I2U2 Group (India, Israel, UAE, US), formed in 2022, represents an economic and strategic convergence platform linked to the Abraham Accords architecture.

Connection to this news: The current US-Israeli military campaign effectively seeks to permanently alter the regional balance that the Abraham Accords sought to diplomatically reconfigure — using force to achieve the strategic objective of eliminating Iran's regional network.

India's Strategic Interests in West Asia: Energy, Diaspora, and Connectivity

West Asia is the most consequential external region for India's national interests. India imports over 85% of its crude oil needs, of which more than 60% comes from the Gulf region — predominantly Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. India has the world's largest diaspora in the Gulf region, with approximately 8-9 million Indian workers in GCC countries, who remit approximately $30-35 billion annually. India's connectivity ambitions — including the Chabahar Port in Iran (a gateway to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Russia via the International North-South Transport Corridor), and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) — are directly vulnerable to West Asian instability.

  • Exports to Israel fell nearly 63.5% in early 2024, with Red Sea disruptions forcing Indian ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding cost and time.
  • Iran's isolation under US maximum pressure sanctions complicates India's Chabahar port investments and threatens India's access to the INSTC (International North-South Transport Corridor) route.
  • India has adopted a calibrated non-alignment stance — maintaining ties with both Israel and Iran, condemning civilian casualties while avoiding direct criticism of US-Israeli military operations.
  • The Gulf remittances of approximately $18-20 billion (from GCC alone) form a critical component of India's Balance of Payments.

Connection to this news: India's silence on the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and its "urge for de-escalation" posture reflects the structural complexity of its West Asia interests — it cannot afford to alienate either the US-Israel axis or Iran and the Gulf states simultaneously.

Key Facts & Data

  • US-Israeli joint strikes on Iran commenced February 28, 2026; Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes.
  • Hezbollah entered the war within 48 hours, making it a multi-front conflict spanning at least six theatres.
  • Iran's IRGC-Quds Force has been a US-designated foreign terrorist organisation since April 2019.
  • The Abraham Accords (September 2020) normalised Israel's relations with UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
  • India imports over 85% of its crude oil; more than 60% from the Gulf region.
  • ~8-9 million Indians work in GCC countries; Gulf remittances contribute approximately $18-20 billion annually to India's external balance.
  • India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was announced at the G20 New Delhi Summit in September 2023; its implementation is now uncertain due to regional instability.
  • The I2U2 Group (India, Israel, UAE, US) was established in July 2022 for economic and strategic cooperation.