What Happened
- Following the onset of US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 — which included reported strikes on nuclear and military facilities and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — Iranian society showed sharply divided reactions.
- Pro-government demonstrators marched in Tehran and other cities, waving Islamic Republic flags and chanting against the US and Israel; similar rallies of mourners occurred in cities like Yasuj following Khamenei's death.
- Separately, footage circulated of Iranians celebrating the strikes and expressing hope that the attacks might weaken or end the current leadership — a reflection of deep discontent with the Islamic Republic among sections of the population, particularly urban youth who have led successive protest waves since 2009.
- Security forces reportedly opened fire on celebrants in several locations, adding to civilian casualties.
- Internet and media access within Iran was heavily restricted by authorities, making independent verification of events difficult, but diaspora networks and social media fragments painted a picture of profound social rupture.
- Iran launched counter-strikes against Israel, US military bases in the region, and Arab states hosting US forces, maintaining a posture of public defiance even under severe military pressure.
Static Topic Bridges
Iran's Domestic Political Landscape: Reform, Repression, and the Protest Cycle
Iran has experienced recurring cycles of popular protest against the Islamic Republic since its establishment in 1979. The most recent major wave — the "Woman, Life, Freedom" (Zan, Zendegi, Azadi) movement — erupted in September 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody and lasted for several months, marking the most sustained challenge to the regime in decades.
- The Islamic Republic is governed under the concept of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), with the Supreme Leader holding ultimate authority above the elected President, Parliament, and judiciary.
- Iran's population of approximately 88 million is relatively young and urban — over 75% urbanised — with high literacy rates and widespread internet use, creating a population more connected to global information flows and more discontented with economic sanctions and political repression than its government acknowledges.
- The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is not merely a military body but a vast economic and security institution that controls significant portions of Iran's economy and is responsible for domestic suppression as well as external military operations.
- Iran's civil society, despite severe restrictions, includes a vibrant diaspora, underground media networks, and persistent domestic activism — all of which have amplified the divided reaction to the 2026 strikes.
Connection to this news: The sharply divided Iranian public reaction — defiance among regime supporters versus celebration among regime critics — mirrors the deep internal polarisation that has developed through decades of economic hardship, political repression, and successive failed reform movements.
The Role of Supreme Leadership in Iran's Political System
The Supreme Leader (Rahbar) is the highest political and religious authority in the Islamic Republic. Ali Khamenei held this position from 1989 until his reported death in the February 2026 strikes, following Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. The position has no fixed term and is theoretically held for life.
- The Supreme Leader commands the armed forces (including the IRGC), appoints the head of the judiciary, approves presidential candidates via the Guardian Council, and issues binding religious and political decrees (fatwas).
- Succession is determined by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of senior clerics elected by the public but vetted by the Guardian Council.
- Khamenei had been preparing a succession process, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei widely discussed as a potential candidate — representing a dynastic transition unprecedented in the Islamic Republic's history.
- The death of the Supreme Leader in a foreign military strike represents the most radical political disruption to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.
Connection to this news: The killing of Khamenei — and the sharply divided public reaction to it — raises fundamental questions about the legitimacy and continuity of the Islamic Republic's political system and the nature of any post-conflict governance settlement in Iran.
Information Warfare and Restricted Media Access in Conflict Zones
When states face internal challenges or external military attacks, controlling information flows is a standard tool of political management. Iran has a history of internet shutdowns during periods of domestic unrest — the 2019 fuel price protests saw a near-total internet blackout for several days.
- Iran operates a National Information Network (NIN, locally called "SHETAB" for internet) that allows the government to disconnect Iranian users from the global internet while maintaining domestic intranet services.
- Satellite internet services (including Starlink) have been used by Iranian activists and journalists to bypass domestic internet shutdowns, though the government has attempted to jam satellite signals.
- During the 2022 protests, Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) became widespread, with reportedly over 70% of Iranians using them to access restricted content.
- International media access inside Iran is limited by accreditation restrictions, making citizen-journalism and diaspora reporting via social media the primary source for real-time information during crises.
Connection to this news: The difficulty in independently verifying the scale of celebrations versus regime-support demonstrations reflects both the active information suppression by Iranian authorities and the structural limitations of covering events inside a country with restricted foreign media access during active military conflict.
Iran and the Regional "Axis of Resistance"
Iran has built and sustained a network of non-state armed partners — often described as the "Axis of Resistance" — across West Asia, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank, Houthi forces in Yemen, and various Shia militia groups in Iraq and Syria. This network has been both a strategic asset (strategic depth and deterrence against Israel and the US) and a source of regional destabilisation.
- Iran's IRGC Quds Force is the external operations unit responsible for training, arming, financing, and coordinating these partner organisations.
- Hezbollah, the strongest of these partners, has an estimated arsenal of 100,000–150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel, though it was significantly degraded in the 2024 Lebanon war.
- The 2026 conflict represents a direct state-to-state military confrontation (US + Israel vs Iran), which is qualitatively different from the proxy warfare that has characterised Iran's regional strategy for decades.
- How the Axis of Resistance networks respond to the weakening or potential collapse of the Islamic Republic's central authority is a key open question shaping regional security calculations.
Connection to this news: The domestic social fragmentation visible in Iranian public reactions to the strikes directly weakens the ideological and political legitimacy on which the Axis of Resistance framework — and Iran's claim to regional leadership — is built.
Key Facts & Data
- US-Israeli strikes on Iran began: 28 February 2026
- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei: Reportedly killed in opening strikes; held the position since 1989
- Velayat-e Faqih: Governing principle of the Islamic Republic; supreme political-religious authority vested in the Supreme Leader
- IRGC: Controls Iran's external military operations (Quds Force) and domestic security; deeply embedded in Iran's economy
- 2022 protests: "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement — sparked by Mahsa Amini's death in morality police custody
- Iran's internet controls: National Information Network (NIN); repeated internet shutdowns during unrest
- Assembly of Experts: 88-member clerical body that selects and can remove the Supreme Leader
- Axis of Resistance: Iran-backed non-state armed network — Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Iraqi Shia militias