What Happened
- On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a large-scale joint military operation — codenamed "Operation Shield of Judah" (US side: "Operation Epic Fury") — striking multiple targets across Iran, including Tehran and sites in southern Iran.
- Reports indicated 40 casualties at a girls' school in southern Iran in one strike, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA; Israel characterised the operation as a "preemptive attack" to "remove existential threats" to Israel.
- Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the region, targeting countries hosting US military bases; explosions were reported from Dubai to Doha.
- UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar temporarily closed their airspace as the conflict spread; Indian carriers Air India and IndiGo cancelled all flights to West Asian destinations.
- A Delhi-Tel Aviv Air India flight (AI139) was diverted back to India mid-flight due to Israeli airspace closure.
- US President Donald Trump simultaneously called on the Iranian population to rise against the regime; the Pentagon confirmed multi-day strike planning, distinguishing this from shorter earlier rounds of strikes.
Static Topic Bridges
Iran Nuclear Programme and JCPOA — Background to the Conflict
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly called the Iran Nuclear Deal, was signed in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China + Germany) and the EU. It restricted Iran's uranium enrichment to 3.67% (weapons-grade requires 90%+), capped its enriched uranium stockpile, and allowed IAEA inspections — in exchange for sanctions relief.
In 2018, the US under President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions. Iran progressively violated deal limits: by 2025, Iran had enriched uranium to 60% purity and accumulated over 400 kg of 60%-enriched uranium (against JCPOA's cap). In October 2025, following an earlier round of Israel-Iran conflict, snapback sanctions were reimposed at the UN Security Council. Negotiations between the US and Iran in Muscat (February 2026) failed to produce an agreement, leading to the February 28 strikes.
- JCPOA signed: July 14, 2015; parties: Iran + P5+1 + EU
- US withdrawal from JCPOA: May 2018 (Trump's first term)
- Iran's enrichment limit under JCPOA: 3.67% (well below weapons-grade of ~90%)
- Iran's actual enrichment level (Feb 2025 IAEA report): 60% purity; stockpile 275 kg at 60%
- Snapback sanctions reimposed: September 28, 2025 (triggered by France, Germany, UK)
- Last diplomatic contact: US-Iran indirect talks in Muscat, Oman — February 6, 2026
Connection to this news: The breakdown of diplomatic efforts to revive or replace the JCPOA, combined with Iran's advanced enrichment, was the stated proximate cause for the February 28 joint strike. This is the culmination of a years-long diplomatic-military escalation cycle.
Strait of Hormuz — The Critical Energy Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran (north) and Oman (south), connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint: approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day (about 20% of global oil supply) passed through it in 2024. Iran borders the northern shore of the strait and has repeatedly threatened to close it as an asymmetric military response.
- Location: Between Iran and Oman; narrowest point ~33 km wide
- Daily oil transit: ~20 million bpd (2024); ~84% destined for Asian markets
- India's exposure: ~50% of India's monthly crude imports transit Hormuz
- India's overall import dependence: 85-90% of crude requirement is imported
- Closure risk: Iran has threatened closure repeatedly; has never fully executed it; any disruption would cause an immediate global price spike
- Alternative bypass: Saudi East-West pipeline (5 mbpd, Red Sea); UAE Fujairah pipeline (1.8 mbpd, Gulf of Oman) — partial, insufficient to replace full Hormuz volumes
Connection to this news: US-Israeli strikes on Iran create the highest risk of Strait closure in years. UAE and Bahrain closed their airspace immediately — a sign of regional panic. India's oil import bill, already under pressure, faces acute risk from any Hormuz disruption.
Airspace Sovereignty and ICAO Framework — Aviation During Armed Conflict
International civil aviation is governed by the Chicago Convention (1944) and administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a UN specialized agency. States have complete and exclusive sovereignty over their airspace (Article 1, Chicago Convention). During armed conflict, states may close their airspace through Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs) — official advisories to airlines about unsafe airspace.
- Chicago Convention: Signed December 7, 1944; entered into force April 4, 1947; India is a signatory
- ICAO: Established by Chicago Convention; headquarters Montreal, Canada; 193 member states
- NOTAM: Notice to Airmen — official advisory about hazardous airspace conditions; airlines must comply
- Airline liability: Airlines have no obligation to fly through unsafe airspace; operational decisions rest with airline management and DGCA
- India's DGCA (Directorate General of Civil Aviation): The regulatory body that issued advisories to Indian carriers on alternate routing
Connection to this news: UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar invoked their airspace sovereignty to close airspace immediately upon escalation. Indian carriers Air India and IndiGo complied with NOTAMs, cancelling and rerouting flights — a direct economic and logistical impact on India from the West Asia conflict.
India's Strategic Interests in West Asia
West Asia (Middle East) is of multi-dimensional strategic importance to India: it hosts over 9 million Indian diaspora (the largest source of remittances — approximately $55-60 billion annually), supplies the majority of India's oil and gas, and is a critical trade route.
- Indian diaspora in Gulf: ~9 million; primarily in UAE (3.5 mn), Saudi Arabia (2.4 mn), Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain
- Remittances: India is the world's top remittance recipient; Gulf countries account for the largest share
- Chabahar port (Iran): India's strategic port investment in southeastern Iran — provides non-Pakistan access to Afghanistan and Central Asia; directly impacted by Iran sanctions and conflict
- Operation Kaveri (2023): India's evacuation operation from Sudan — India maintains capacity for Non-Combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO) in conflict zones
- Look West policy: India's engagement strategy for West Asia under PM Modi
Connection to this news: A major war in West Asia threatens Indian diaspora safety, oil supply, remittance flows, and India's Chabahar investment simultaneously. The cancellation of Air India and IndiGo flights is the immediate visible impact; the deeper strategic costs are far larger.
Key Facts & Data
- JCPOA signed: July 14, 2015; US withdrew: May 8, 2018
- Iran's uranium enrichment under JCPOA: capped at 3.67%; actual level by 2025: 60%
- Iran's 60%-enriched uranium stockpile: 275 kg (IAEA, Feb 2025); 400+ kg by May 2025
- Strait of Hormuz oil transit: ~20 million bpd (2024); ~20% of global supply
- India's Hormuz exposure: ~50% of crude imports
- Indian carriers affected: Air India (including AI139 Delhi-Tel Aviv aborted), IndiGo
- Airspaces closed: UAE, Bahrain, Qatar (temporary)
- Chicago Convention signed: December 7, 1944; ICAO HQ: Montreal, Canada
- Indian diaspora in Gulf region: ~9 million persons
- India remittances (Gulf share): largest regional contributor to India's ~$55-60 billion total annual remittances