What Happened
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Mumbai on February 27, 2026, on a four-day visit to India — the first high-level visit since relations collapsed in late 2023.
- The visit marks a deliberate diplomatic reset: Canadian officials have formally dropped the characterization of India as a "security threat," a label used under the Trudeau government after the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023.
- The two countries formally relaunched negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with bilateral trade targeted to double to $70 billion by 2030.
- A major uranium supply deal — estimated at approximately CAD 2.8 billion over ten years — is under negotiation, with Canada's Cameco positioned as the supplier for India's expanding civil nuclear energy program.
- Both sides also announced cooperation areas covering oil and natural gas, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, critical minerals, and aerospace, signalling a pivot from political crisis to strategic economic partnership.
Static Topic Bridges
The Nijjar Killing and the Diplomatic Collapse (2023–2024)
Hardeep Singh Nijjar was a Canadian Sikh activist who led a temple in Surrey, British Columbia. India had designated him a terrorist in 2020 for alleged involvement in violence. In June 2023, he was shot dead outside his temple. In September 2023, then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged in Parliament that there were "credible allegations" linking Indian government agents to the killing — a charge India categorically denied, calling it absurd and politically motivated.
The fallout was severe. In October 2024, Canada expelled India's High Commissioner and five other Indian diplomats, declaring them persons of interest in an assassination plot investigation. India responded in kind, expelling Canada's acting high commissioner and five of its diplomats. This tit-for-tat expulsion marked the lowest point in India-Canada relations in modern history.
- Nijjar was designated a terrorist by India in 2020 under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA).
- Canada's allegations invoked the concept of transnational repression — the use of state agents to silence dissidents abroad.
- India and Canada have an extradition treaty (signed 1987), but it had not facilitated the resolution of disputes between the two governments.
- The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (1961) governs the immunity of diplomats; Canada alleged India threatened to revoke immunity of its diplomats in India.
Connection to this news: Carney's visit formally closes this chapter without resolving the underlying legal dispute — both sides have pledged security cooperation going forward while the Nijjar case remains open in Canadian courts.
India-Canada CEPA: A Trade Deal a Decade in the Making
A Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is a broad trade treaty covering goods, services, investments, intellectual property, and regulatory cooperation — more comprehensive than a standard Free Trade Agreement (FTA). India has CEPAs with ASEAN (2009), South Korea (2010), Japan (2011), and the UAE (2022).
India and Canada began CEPA negotiations in 2010, but talks stalled repeatedly over disagreements on market access in agriculture, dairy, and professional services. Under Trudeau, diplomatic tensions caused the negotiations to be formally suspended in 2023. With Carney's visit, the negotiations have been formally relaunched.
- India-Canada bilateral trade stood at approximately $8–9 billion annually prior to the diplomatic freeze — well below the potential given both economies' size.
- Canada is a significant source of pulses (lentils, chickpeas) for India, making it an important agricultural partner.
- India's interest in the Canadian market centers on IT services, pharmaceuticals, and skilled labour mobility.
- CEPA negotiations in India are led by the Department of Commerce under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
Connection to this news: The formal relaunch of CEPA, backed by a political reset at the prime ministerial level, gives the negotiations momentum they have lacked for over a decade. The uranium supply deal, if concluded, could serve as an anchor agreement accelerating the broader CEPA.
Civil Nuclear Cooperation: The India-Canada Nuclear Relationship
Canada and India have a historically significant but troubled nuclear relationship. Canada supplied India with the CIRUS research reactor in 1956 under the Colombo Plan, and Canadian technology contributed to India's 1974 Pokhran-I nuclear test ("Smiling Buddha"). Canada suspended all nuclear cooperation with India after 1974 in protest, and this suspension lasted until India joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) framework through the India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement (123 Agreement) of 2008.
Post-2008, Canada and India signed a bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement in 2010, enabling Cameco — the world's largest publicly listed uranium producer — to supply uranium to India for civilian nuclear power.
- India has 22 operational nuclear power reactors with a total capacity of approximately 6,780 MW (as of 2025), and plans to expand to 22,480 MW by 2031-32 under the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL).
- India does not have large domestic uranium reserves and depends on imports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Canada.
- The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver granted to India in 2008 allows NSG member states, including Canada, to conduct civil nuclear trade with India despite India not being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
- Cameco, headquartered in Saskatchewan, is the world's largest publicly-traded uranium producer and a major supplier to India.
Connection to this news: The proposed CAD 2.8 billion uranium supply deal with Cameco represents a strategic deepening of the post-2008 civil nuclear relationship, and is a central economic anchor of Carney's visit.
Khalistan Issue in India-Canada Relations: A Structural Tension
The Khalistan movement refers to a demand for a separate Sikh homeland — "Khalistan" — carved out of the Punjab region. The movement emerged after the 1947 partition and intensified in the 1970s-80s, culminating in Operation Blue Star (1984) — the Indian Army's entry into the Golden Temple in Amritsar — and the subsequent assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The movement was militarily suppressed in Punjab by the early 1990s.
However, a significant Sikh diaspora in Canada — estimated at 770,000 people, the largest outside Punjab — has kept the issue alive politically. Canadian politicians, particularly in constituencies with large Sikh populations, have at times engaged with Khalistan-affiliated groups, a practice India views as supporting terrorism.
- The Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) organization, which India has designated a terrorist group, has conducted referendums on Khalistan in Canada with implicit Canadian governmental tolerance.
- India's UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, 1967 as amended) allows the government to designate individuals and organizations as terrorists; Nijjar was designated under this act.
- The NIA (National Investigation Agency) has filed chargesheets against several Canada-based Sikh activists.
- Canada's domestic political context — where minority governments depend on NDP support, and the NDP has a large Sikh-origin voter base — has complicated Canadian government action against Khalistan groups.
Connection to this news: Carney's visit does not resolve the structural tension over Khalistan, but the two sides have agreed to "cooperate more closely on security," suggesting India has obtained some reassurance on this front in exchange for the diplomatic reset.
Key Facts & Data
- Hardeep Singh Nijjar killed: June 18, 2023, Surrey, British Columbia.
- India designated Nijjar a terrorist under UAPA in 2020.
- Trudeau's parliamentary statement alleging Indian government involvement: September 18, 2023.
- Mutual diplomat expulsions: October 2024 (6 diplomats each side).
- Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Canadian Prime Minister in January 2026.
- Canada's Sikh diaspora: estimated 770,000 (2021 census), Canada has the largest Sikh population outside India.
- Proposed uranium deal: CAD 2.8 billion over 10 years (Cameco as supplier).
- India-Canada CEPA negotiations launched: 2010; formally suspended: 2023; relaunched: February 2026.
- Target bilateral trade under CEPA: $70 billion by 2030.
- India-Canada bilateral trade (pre-freeze): approximately $8–9 billion annually.
- India's current nuclear power capacity: ~6,780 MW (22 operational reactors).
- India's NSG waiver year: 2008 (enabling civil nuclear trade despite non-NPT signatory status).