What Happened
- On February 26, 2026, a senior Canadian government official stated during a background briefing that India is "no longer linked to violent crimes" in Canada — a dramatic reversal of Canada's position under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
- The statement came two days before Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in New Delhi for his first official visit to India (February 27 – March 2, 2026).
- The Carney-Modi summit resulted in an agreement to expand bilateral trade to CAD 70 billion by 2030, relaunch of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) talks, and a defence cooperation agreement.
- The normalisation comes after a prolonged diplomatic crisis triggered by Trudeau's September 2023 allegation in the Canadian Parliament that Indian government agents may have been involved in the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in June 2023.
- Despite the diplomatic reset, The Globe and Mail published new allegations during Carney's visit linking an Indian intelligence officer to the Nijjar killing, underscoring that the security dimension of the relationship remains unresolved.
- India and Canada agreed to restore diplomatic missions to pre-crisis staffing levels, with High Commissioners having returned to their posts.
Static Topic Bridges
The Nijjar Killing and the Diplomatic Rupture (2023-2025)
The killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar on June 18, 2023, outside a Sikh gurudwara in Surrey, British Columbia, triggered the most serious India-Canada diplomatic crisis since independence. Nijjar was the President of the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey and a prominent advocate for the creation of Khalistan — a Sikh homeland carved out of Indian Punjab. India had designated him a "terrorist" under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act. Trudeau's accusation of "credible intelligence" linking Indian government agents to Nijjar's killing was denied categorically by New Delhi. The dispute escalated through 2023-24: both countries expelled each other's diplomats, Canada closed three Indian consulates, and India expelled the Indian High Commissioner and five other Canadian diplomats in October 2024, with India retaliating in kind.
- Nijjar killing: June 18, 2023, Surrey, British Columbia
- Trudeau allegation: September 2023, Canadian Parliament — "credible intelligence" of Indian government involvement
- India's response: Denied all allegations; designated Nijjar a terrorist under UAPA
- Diplomatic expulsions: Canada expelled Indian HC Sanjay Kumar Verma + 5 others (October 2024); India retaliated
- Canada closed: 3 Indian consulates (reduced India's consular presence in Canada)
- Khalistan issue: India classifies Khalistan movement as secessionist; diaspora-driven political pressure in Canada
Connection to this news: The Carney government's about-turn on the violent crime linkage represents a strategic decision to treat the Nijjar case as a law enforcement matter rather than a state-level political dispute, enabling diplomatic normalisation without formally resolving the underlying allegation.
Khalistan and India's Sikh Diaspora Relations
The Khalistan movement seeks a sovereign Sikh homeland in the Punjab region. In India, the movement was most active during the 1970s-1990s, culminating in Operation Blue Star (June 1984), the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (October 1984), and the subsequent anti-Sikh riots. The movement was largely suppressed within India by the early 1990s but retained active diaspora chapters in Canada, UK, US, and Australia. Canada's large Sikh diaspora (~770,000 persons, roughly 2% of Canada's population) and its proportional representation in the Liberal and NDP parties has historically made Canadian governments politically sensitive to Sikh diaspora concerns. India has long pressed Canada, the UK, and the US to crack down on Khalistan-linked organisations, fundraising, and propaganda activities, which India considers cross-border terrorism support.
- Operation Blue Star: June 1984; Indian Army operation to clear militants from Golden Temple, Amritsar
- UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act): India's primary counter-terrorism law; used to designate individuals and organisations
- Sikh diaspora in Canada: ~770,000 (approx. 2% of population); concentrated in Ontario, British Columbia
- Organisations: Sikhs for Justice (banned in India under UAPA); World Sikh Organization (moderate)
- India-Canada tension points: Pro-Khalistan rallies, protests outside Indian consulates, fundraising activities
Connection to this news: Carney's recalibration reflects Canada's recognition that unchecked diaspora politics were pushing bilateral relations toward a breaking point, especially as Canada seeks new trade partners in the face of US tariff pressures under Trump.
India-Canada Bilateral Relations: Trade and Strategic Dimensions
India and Canada share a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiation track that has been intermittently active since 2010. Bilateral trade in 2023 stood at approximately CAD 15-17 billion. Canada is a significant source of uranium for India's civilian nuclear programme — India imports Canadian uranium under CANDU reactor agreements and IAEA safeguards. Canada's oil sands and LNG resources are of strategic interest to India as an energy diversification option. The Carney-Modi summit's target of CAD 70 billion trade by 2030 represents a roughly 4-5x increase from current levels — achievable only through the CEPA and significant investment flows in uranium, energy, AI, quantum computing, and aerospace.
- India-Canada CEPA: Negotiations ongoing since 2010; stalled repeatedly; relaunched 2026
- Bilateral trade (2023): ~CAD 15-17 billion
- Canada to supply: Uranium (for India's nuclear energy expansion), LNG, oil sands products
- India to supply: IT services, pharmaceuticals, skilled labour mobility
- New cooperation areas (Carney-Modi): AI, quantum computing, aerospace, defence, nuclear energy
- Bilateral trade target (2030): CAD 70 billion
Connection to this news: The normalisation is driven significantly by Canada's desire to reduce its trade dependence on the US (amid Trump's tariff threats) — India, with its large consumer market and growing economy, is an obvious pivot target.
Transnational Crime and India-Canada Security Cooperation
Beyond the Khalistan dispute, India and Canada have overlapping interests in combating transnational organised crime. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's visit to Ottawa in early 2026 produced a joint action plan covering: fentanyl smuggling, transnational organised crime, violent extremism, illegal immigration fraud, cybercrime, and cybersecurity. The fentanyl crisis in Canada — with India-based precursor chemical supply chains implicated in some cases — provides a concrete area for bilateral law enforcement cooperation that can build operational trust even while the political-level Nijjar dispute remains unresolved.
- NSA Doval-Canada meeting (2026): Action plan on fentanyl, transnational crime, cybersecurity
- Fentanyl supply chains: India-based chemical manufacturers supply precursors; concern for Canada's drug crisis
- Five Eyes framework: Canada is a member; India is a Partner Nation, not full member
- Visa issues: Canada restricted student and visitor visas to India in 2023-24; partially restored under Carney
- Defence cooperation agreement: Signed during Carney's February 2026 visit
Connection to this news: The security cooperation framework gives both governments substantive deliverables that can justify the diplomatic reset to their domestic audiences, beyond the politically sensitive Nijjar case.
Key Facts & Data
- Nijjar killing: June 18, 2023, Surrey, British Columbia
- Trudeau's allegation: September 2023 (Canadian Parliament)
- Canadian PM Carney's India visit: February 27 – March 2, 2026
- Carney-Modi trade target: CAD 70 billion by 2030
- CEPA relaunched: 2026 (negotiations ongoing since 2010)
- Sikh diaspora in Canada: ~770,000 (~2% of population)
- India-Canada diplomatic expulsions: October 2024 (High Commissioners expelled, consulates closed)
- High Commissioners returned to posts: 2026 (during reset)
- New agreements signed: Defence cooperation pact; uranium supply deal
- NSA Doval-Ottawa action plan: Fentanyl, cybercrime, transnational crime, violent extremism
- India designated Nijjar under UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act)
- Canada-India current bilateral trade: ~CAD 15-17 billion