What Happened
- February 24, 2026 marks the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022.
- After four years, Russia continues to occupy approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, having captured nearly 5,000 square kilometres in 2025 alone — primarily in the Donetsk region.
- Ukraine made its largest battlefield gains in over two and a half years in February 2026, retaking over 200 square kilometres between February 11–15.
- The third round of US-brokered trilateral peace talks (Ukraine-Russia, mediated by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner) concluded in Geneva on February 18, 2026; Russia's stated condition is Ukrainian withdrawal from the remaining 30% of Donetsk that Kyiv controls.
- The human cost at four years: nearly 56,000 civilian casualties, 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), 5.9 million refugees registered abroad, and over $188 billion in US aid and $197 billion in EU aid to Ukraine since January 2022.
Static Topic Bridges
Budapest Memorandum (1994) and the Failure of Security Assurances
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was signed on December 5, 1994, by Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine on one side and Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom on the other. Ukraine agreed to give up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal (inherited from the Soviet Union) in exchange for security assurances: the signatories committed not to threaten or use military force or economic coercion against Ukraine. The memorandum is a political commitment, not a legally binding treaty ratified by the signatories' legislatures — a critical distinction that has been cited as a reason enforcement mechanisms were absent. Russia violated the memorandum in 2014 by annexing Crimea and again in 2022 by launching the full-scale invasion. The failure of the Budapest Memorandum has revived debates globally about the value of nuclear disarmament agreements when security assurances lack binding enforcement.
- Signed: December 5, 1994, Budapest, Hungary.
- Parties: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine (disarming states); Russia, USA, UK (assurance-givers).
- Ukraine's nuclear stockpile: ~1,900 strategic + ~2,500 tactical warheads inherited from USSR — given up by 1996.
- Nature of commitment: Political assurance (not a binding treaty); no enforcement mechanism.
- Russia's violations: Crimea annexation (2014); full-scale invasion (February 24, 2022).
- France and China: Provided separate but weaker political assurances in parallel documents.
Connection to this news: The four-year anniversary underscores the long-term strategic consequences of nuclear disarmament without binding legal guarantees — a lesson cited by analysts commenting on global non-proliferation dynamics.
Minsk Agreements and Conflict Background
The Donbas conflict predated the 2022 invasion. After Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts declared independence. The Minsk I Agreement (September 2014) and Minsk II Agreement (February 2015), brokered by the Normandy Format (France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine), attempted to establish ceasefires and a political settlement framework. Key Minsk II provisions included a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, prisoner exchanges, and a political process granting special status to Donbas regions. Both agreements repeatedly failed as violations continued; Russia in 2022 declared it had recognised the Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics" — using them as a pretext for the full-scale invasion. In September 2022, Russia further announced the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts — condemned internationally as illegal.
- Minsk I: September 2014; collapsed quickly due to continued fighting.
- Minsk II: February 12, 2015; brokered by France and Germany in Normandy Format.
- Normandy Format: France, Germany, Ukraine, Russia — diplomatic mechanism for Donbas conflict resolution.
- September 30, 2022: Russia declared annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson — condemned by UN General Assembly resolution (143–5 vote).
- Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI): Turkey-UN brokered deal (July 2022) to resume Ukrainian grain exports; collapsed July 2023.
Connection to this news: Understanding the Minsk process is essential context for evaluating the current Geneva talks — both involve Russia demanding political concessions as preconditions for ceasefire.
India's Position on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
India has maintained a position of strategic autonomy throughout the Russia-Ukraine conflict, consistently refusing to explicitly condemn Russia's invasion while calling for dialogue and diplomacy. India abstained on multiple UN General Assembly and Security Council resolutions condemning Russia, citing its long-standing policy of non-alignment and its strategic defence relationship with Russia. India's posture is shaped by: (a) historic defence dependency on Russia (Russia supplies ~50% of India's military equipment by some estimates); (b) significant Russian oil imports at discounted prices during the war; (c) the BRICS partnership; and (d) India's doctrine of "strategic autonomy" — refusing to align with blocs. PM Modi's statement in September 2022 to President Putin — "today's era is not an era of war" — was widely noted as India's strongest public signal of concern about the conflict.
- India's UN votes: Abstained on UNGA Resolution ES-11/1 (March 2022, deploring invasion); abstained multiple subsequent resolutions.
- Defence dependency: Russia supplies ~50–60% of India's military hardware (aircraft, tanks, submarines, missiles).
- Oil imports: India significantly increased Russian crude oil imports post-2022 at discounted prices, becoming a top buyer.
- BRICS: India and Russia are both members; India's position at BRICS complicated Western pressure for condemnation.
- Modi to Putin (September 2022): "This is not an era of war" — at SCO Summit in Samarkand; widely cited as implicit criticism.
Connection to this news: As the conflict enters its fifth year with active peace negotiations, India's role as a potential diplomatic interlocutor and its balancing between Russia and the West remains a key UPSC theme.
Key Facts & Data
- February 24, 2022: Date of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine; fourth anniversary in 2026.
- ~20%: Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation as of early 2026.
- ~5,000 sq km: Territory captured by Russia in 2025 alone.
- 200+ sq km: Territory retaken by Ukraine in February 11–15, 2026 — largest gains in 2.5 years.
- $188 billion (US) + $197 billion (EU): Total aid to Ukraine since January 2022.
- 56,000: Civilian casualties since the full-scale invasion.
- 3.7 million IDPs and 5.9 million refugees: Displacement figures at four-year mark.
- Minsk II (2015): Last major diplomatic framework before the 2022 invasion; brokered by Normandy Format.
- Budapest Memorandum (1994): Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances — now widely regarded as inadequate.