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U.S. Military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations

February 15, 2026 4 min read International Relations Internal Security GS2 (International Relations) GS3 (Internal Security)
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What Happened

  • The US military is preparing for sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, according to US officials cited by Reuters.
  • The planned operations could target not just nuclear infrastructure but also Iranian state and security facilities, representing a far more expansive campaign than previous US actions against Iran.
  • The Pentagon is sending an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East, along with thousands of additional troops, fighter aircraft, guided-missile destroyers, and other military assets.
  • The US fully expects Iran to retaliate, leading to a cycle of back-and-forth strikes over an extended period, with experts warning of significant risks to US forces given Iran's formidable missile arsenal.
  • Diplomatic efforts continue in parallel: US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to hold negotiations with Iran in Geneva, with Oman acting as mediator.
  • President Trump warned that the alternative to a diplomatic solution would be "very traumatic."

Static Topic Bridges

Iran's Nuclear Program and the JCPOA

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed on July 14, 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany). It imposed strict limits on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. The US withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018 under Trump's first term, reimposing sanctions and triggering Iran's progressive rollback of compliance.

  • JCPOA enrichment limit: 3.67% (reactor-grade), stockpile capped at 202 kg of low-enriched uranium
  • Current status: Iran enriches uranium to 60% (near weapons-grade, no practical civilian use); key JCPOA restrictions on enrichment capacity were set to expire in January 2026
  • Breakout capability: As of late 2024, Iran can produce enough weapons-grade uranium for 5-6 nuclear weapons in under two weeks
  • P5+1: US, UK, France, Russia, China (UNSC permanent members) plus Germany
  • Original parties: Iran, P5+1, and the European Union (as coordinator)

Connection to this news: The US military preparations are driven largely by Iran's nuclear advances since the JCPOA collapse, with Washington seeking to either negotiate new limits or militarily neutralize the program.

US "Maximum Pressure" Campaign on Iran

"Maximum pressure" is the US policy framework, first articulated during Trump's first term (2018-2021), aimed at economically isolating Iran through comprehensive sanctions to force concessions on its nuclear program, missile development, and regional activities. The policy was revived in Trump's second term with a February 2025 National Security Presidential Memorandum.

  • Origin: Launched after US JCPOA withdrawal (May 2018)
  • Core tool: Sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports, financial sector, metals, and entities involved in missile and nuclear programs
  • Oil export impact: Iran's oil exports fell from ~2.5 million bpd (2018) to under 500,000 bpd (2019-20) before recovering via sanctions evasion
  • Shadow fleet: Hundreds of tankers circumvent sanctions through flag changes, disabled tracking, ship-to-ship transfers, and opaque ownership
  • February 2025 NSPM: Directed "robust and continual sanctions enforcement" to deny the regime and its terror proxies access to revenue

Connection to this news: The military buildup runs parallel to the maximum pressure campaign, serving as both leverage for negotiations and contingency planning if diplomacy fails.

Strait of Hormuz -- Global Energy Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint. Any military conflict with Iran would directly threaten this waterway, with cascading effects on global energy prices and supply chains.

  • Width: ~33 km at narrowest point; shipping lanes are only ~3 km wide in each direction
  • Oil transit: Approximately 20-21 million barrels per day pass through (roughly 20-25% of global oil consumption)
  • LNG transit: About 25% of global liquefied natural gas trade passes through
  • Iran's capability: Possesses anti-ship missiles, fast-attack boats, mines, and coastal defense systems capable of disrupting maritime traffic
  • Previous incidents: Iran has seized tankers and threatened to close the strait during past tensions (2019 tanker seizures)

Connection to this news: A sustained US-Iran military conflict would likely involve Iranian threats to disrupt Strait of Hormuz traffic, potentially triggering a global energy crisis -- a factor that moderates escalation calculations on both sides.

Key Facts & Data

  • JCPOA signed: July 14, 2015; US withdrew May 8, 2018
  • Iran's current enrichment level: Up to 60% (weapons-grade is ~90%)
  • Iran's estimated breakout time: Less than 2 weeks for enough material for one weapon
  • Strait of Hormuz: ~21 million bpd oil transit (~20-25% of global consumption)
  • Geneva negotiations: US envoys Witkoff and Kushner to meet Iranian representatives, Oman as mediator
  • US military buildup: Additional aircraft carrier, thousands of troops, fighter jets, guided-missile destroyers deployed to the Middle East
  • Maximum pressure revival: February 4, 2025 NSPM by President Trump