What Happened
- The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won a landslide victory in the country's first general election since the 2024 student-led uprising that ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, winning 209 out of 300 seats in parliament.
- BNP leader Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is set to become the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh.
- India-Bangladesh relations had deteriorated to historic lows since the August 2024 uprising, marked by trade restrictions, mutual recriminations, and India's refusal to extradite Hasina despite Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal sentencing.
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Tarique Rahman, stating India will continue to support "a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh."
- Analysts suggest a reset is possible but will require restraint and reciprocity from both sides, with key issues including water-sharing treaties, trade imbalances, border management, and the fate of Sheikh Hasina.
Static Topic Bridges
India-Bangladesh Relations -- Historical Framework
India-Bangladesh relations are rooted in India's decisive role in the 1971 Liberation War, which created Bangladesh. The relationship has oscillated between warmth under Awami League governments and coolness under BNP-led administrations, reflecting the two-party dynamic in Bangladeshi politics.
- 1971 Liberation War: India provided military support; Bangladesh achieved independence on December 16, 1971
- Treaty of Friendship (1972): Signed by Mujibur Rahman and Indira Gandhi; 25-year duration, lapsed in 1997
- Awami League era (2009-2024): Peak cooperation -- Land Boundary Agreement (2015), transit agreements, shared waterway protocols, counterterrorism cooperation
- BNP's historical stance: Generally more skeptical of Indian influence; during 2001-2006 BNP tenure, relations were strained over cross-border terrorism and trade issues
- Key bilateral mechanisms: Joint Rivers Commission (1972), Joint Consultative Commission, Commerce Secretary-level talks
Connection to this news: The BNP's return to power marks a structural shift in the bilateral dynamic. Unlike the Awami League, which built deep institutional ties with India, BNP traditionally maintains a more arms-length relationship, making active diplomatic engagement crucial.
Neighbourhood First Policy
India's Neighbourhood First Policy, articulated since 2014, prioritizes relations with immediate neighbours through enhanced connectivity, development assistance, and institutional engagement. Bangladesh has been a cornerstone of this policy, particularly during the Awami League years.
- Articulated: 2014, by PM Modi upon assuming office
- Core elements: Priority to immediate neighbours, development cooperation, connectivity projects, people-to-people ties
- Bangladesh-specific outcomes: Inauguration of Maitri Setu (2021), Feni River bridge; Padma Bridge cooperation; Indian lines of credit exceeding $8 billion
- Trade: India is Bangladesh's largest trading partner in South Asia; bilateral trade of ~$16 billion (India's exports ~$12 billion, imports ~$2 billion) creating a significant trade imbalance
- Connectivity: Passenger and freight rail links restored (Maitree Express, Bandhan Express), inland waterway transit agreements
Connection to this news: The BNP government's priorities -- including renegotiating trade terms and water-sharing agreements -- will test the Neighbourhood First Policy's adaptability to a government that perceives India's engagement as historically tilted toward the Awami League.
India-Bangladesh Border Management
The India-Bangladesh border stretches 4,096.7 km across five Indian states (West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram), making it India's longest land border. Border management involves complex issues including illegal immigration, smuggling, cattle trade, and border killings.
- Border length: 4,096.7 km (India's longest international land border)
- Border fencing: Near-complete (about 3,323 km fenced as of recent data) with remaining gaps in riverine and difficult terrain
- Border guarding forces: BSF (India) and Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) hold regular Director General-level meetings
- Coordinated Border Management Plan (CBMP): Agreed in 2011 to reduce border killings and improve management
- Contentious issues: Allegations of BSF killings of Bangladeshi nationals; cattle and drug smuggling; Rohingya infiltration
- Enclaves settlement: India and Bangladesh exchanged 162 enclaves through the Land Boundary Agreement (2015), ratified through the 100th Constitutional Amendment
Connection to this news: Border killings and illegal migration are issues that any BNP government will raise prominently, given that the party has historically been more vocal about BSF violence. Effective border management will be essential for trust-building in the reset.
Key Facts & Data
- BNP election result: 209 seats out of 300 (landslide majority; 151 needed)
- India-Bangladesh bilateral trade: ~$16 billion (India's exports ~$12 billion, Bangladesh exports ~$2 billion)
- Indian lines of credit to Bangladesh: Over $8 billion extended
- India-Bangladesh border: 4,096.7 km (India's longest land border)
- Land Boundary Agreement: 2015, resolved 162 enclaves, ratified via 100th Constitutional Amendment
- 1971 Liberation War: Bangladesh independence on December 16, 1971
- Tarique Rahman: Son of former PM Khaleda Zia; set to become PM
- August 2024 uprising: Student-led movement ousted Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government