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Nikhil Gupta pleads guilty: How the US drew links between Pannun plot and Nijjar’s killing

February 14, 2026 5 min read International Relations GS Paper 2 (India's Foreign Policy Internal Security India-US Relations)
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What Happened

  • Indian national Nikhil Gupta, 54, pleaded guilty on February 14, 2026 in the Manhattan Federal Court to charges of murder-for-hire conspiracy, conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, and conspiracy to commit money laundering in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun — a Sikh separatist leader holding dual US-Canadian citizenship.
  • US prosecutors alleged that Gupta acted "at the direction of an Indian government employee," identified in related court filings as former Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) official Vikash Yadav, who faces a federal arrest warrant and an Interpol Red Notice but remains at large.
  • Prosecutors drew links between this plot and the June 2023 killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar — a Canadian Sikh leader — outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia, Canada, with court documents suggesting a connected transnational network.
  • Gupta was arrested in the Czech Republic in 2023 on a US extradition request and was extradited to face trial; he is scheduled for sentencing on May 29, 2026 and faces decades in prison.
  • The guilty plea has intensified calls from Indian-American and Sikh organisations for a formal US government investigation into the alleged role of Indian intelligence agencies.

Static Topic Bridges

Transnational Repression and International Law

Transnational repression refers to state-sponsored efforts to monitor, intimidate, threaten, or harm perceived dissidents and critics living outside a country's borders. The practice violates multiple international legal norms including the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations (1963), which restricts consular activities to specified functions, and the UN Declaration on Human Rights Defenders (1998). It also raises questions under the UN Charter's prohibition on interference in the internal affairs of other states.

  • The US Department of Justice's National Security Division actively prosecutes cases of transnational repression, treating foreign state-directed assassination plots on US soil as federal crimes under 18 U.S.C. § 1958 (use of interstate commerce facilities in the commission of murder-for-hire).
  • The Pannun case is one of several high-profile transnational repression cases in recent years, alongside Saudi Arabia's killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul (2018) and Russia's poisoning of former intelligence agent Sergei Skripal in the UK (2018).
  • India has not been formally designated as a state that engages in transnational repression by the US government; however, the guilty plea publicly implicates an alleged government employee.

Connection to this news: Gupta's guilty plea transforms what India had previously framed as unfounded allegations into a judicially established fact pattern — significantly raising the diplomatic and reputational stakes for India in the US and Canada.

India-Canada Relations and the Nijjar Case

Hardeep Singh Nijjar was designated a terrorist by India's Ministry of Home Affairs in 2020 under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) for alleged links to the Khalistan Tiger Force. Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly alleged in September 2023 that Indian government agents were behind Nijjar's killing — a charge India denied as "absurd." The allegations triggered a major diplomatic crisis: both countries expelled each other's high commissioners and reduced diplomatic staff.

  • India proscribed the Khalistan Tiger Force as an unlawful organisation under the UAPA; Pannun is associated with Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), which India also banned under UAPA in 2019.
  • Canada expelled India's High Commissioner to Canada and several other diplomatic personnel in October 2024 after the RCMP implicated agents of the Indian government in Nijjar's killing.
  • India responded by expelling an equivalent number of Canadian diplomats and issuing a demarche.
  • The UAPA (originally passed in 1967, significantly amended in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2019) allows the government to designate individuals as terrorists without requiring a criminal conviction.

Connection to this news: The US case against Gupta — and its alleged links to the Nijjar network — draws a direct line between the India-Canada diplomatic crisis and India-US relations, potentially jeopardising the warming trajectory in the India-US partnership.

Research and Analysis Wing (RAW): Structure, Mandate, and Accountability

RAW is India's primary external intelligence agency, established in 1968 under the Cabinet Secretariat following lessons drawn from the 1962 Sino-Indian War and the inadequacy of the Intelligence Bureau (IB) in external intelligence. It reports directly to the Prime Minister through the Cabinet Secretary and is not subject to Parliamentary oversight in the manner of executive agencies.

  • RAW was carved out of the Intelligence Bureau by R.N. Kao, its founding chief, who served until 1977.
  • Unlike intelligence agencies in democracies such as the US (CIA, subject to congressional oversight) or the UK (MI6, subject to parliamentary intelligence committee scrutiny), RAW operates with minimal formal statutory basis and no dedicated parliamentary oversight body.
  • The absence of a formal RAW Act (unlike the Intelligence Bureau's loose statutory basis) means the agency's mandate, structure, and accountability mechanisms are defined primarily through executive orders and government resolutions.
  • Any Indian government employee implicated in a foreign operation faces potential prosecution in the relevant foreign jurisdiction — no bilateral immunity agreement exists between India and the US covering intelligence operations.

Connection to this news: The alleged involvement of a named RAW official in the Pannun plot raises questions about institutional oversight, authorisation chains, and the accountability framework for India's external intelligence operations — issues that will be examined in US legal proceedings and by the Indian Parliament's committees.

Key Facts & Data

  • Nikhil Gupta charged under: 18 U.S.C. § 1958 (murder-for-hire), money laundering conspiracy.
  • Gupta's guilty plea entered: February 14, 2026, Manhattan Federal Court.
  • Sentencing scheduled: May 29, 2026.
  • Gurpatwant Singh Pannun: dual US-Canadian citizen; leader of Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), banned in India under UAPA in 2019.
  • Hardeep Singh Nijjar killed: June 2023, Surrey, British Columbia, Canada.
  • RAW established: 1968, under Cabinet Secretariat.
  • Canada expelled India's High Commissioner: October 2024.
  • UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act): originally 1967; last major amendment 2019.
  • Vienna Convention on Consular Relations: adopted 1963.
  • Interpol Red Notice: issued for Vikash Yadav (alleged co-conspirator).