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In Dhaka, a new dawn and a gathering storm

February 14, 2026 5 min read International Relations GS2 (International Relations India and Neighbourhood Bilateral Relations)
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What Happened

  • The BNP is set to form the government in Dhaka after a landslide victory in the 13th National Parliamentary Election, winning approximately 209 of 299 seats.
  • The Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance secured 77 seats, with Jamaat alone winning 68 — its strongest-ever electoral showing, raising questions about the influence of Islamist politics in the new political dispensation.
  • The election marks Bangladesh's first elected government since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government in August 2024 through mass student-led protests.
  • The BNP faces significant governance challenges including economic stabilisation, managing the Jamaat alliance, addressing demands of the protest generation, and navigating complex regional relationships.

Static Topic Bridges

Islamist Politics in South Asia — Jamaat-e-Islami's Role in Bangladesh

Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, originally part of the undivided Jamaat-e-Islami founded by Abul A'la Maududi in 1941 in British India, is one of the most organised Islamist political parties in South Asia. Its record 68-seat performance raises important questions about the trajectory of political Islam in Bangladesh.

  • Jamaat-e-Islami (Bangladesh) was founded in 1941 (as part of the undivided Jamaat); it opposed Bangladesh's independence in 1971 and its members were accused of collaborating with the Pakistani military during the Liberation War.
  • The International Crimes Tribunal (Bangladesh, established 2009 under the International Crimes Tribunal Act, 1973) convicted several Jamaat leaders for 1971 war crimes, including death sentences.
  • Jamaat was banned from contesting elections in 2013 by the Bangladesh High Court, which ruled that its charter contradicted the secular principles of the Constitution. The ban was effectively lifted during the interim government period (2024-2026).
  • Bangladesh's Constitution (Article 12) provides for secularism as a fundamental principle, but the 8th Amendment (1988) declared Islam as the state religion (Article 2A) — creating a constitutional tension between secularism and state religion.
  • Jamaat's constituency: strong presence in rural Bangladesh, particularly in northern districts; controls a network of madrasas, banks (Islami Bank), and NGOs.

Connection to this news: Jamaat's 68-seat showing — its highest ever — gives the party significant leverage within the governing coalition. Its historical stance on 1971, its Islamist agenda, and its traditional alignment with Pakistan make it a factor that India will closely monitor in the context of bilateral relations and regional security.

South Asian Democratic Transitions — Comparative Analysis

Bangladesh's 2024-2026 political transition — from an authoritarian-leaning ruling party to an interim government to fresh elections — offers a comparative case study alongside other South Asian democratic transitions including Sri Lanka (2022 Aragalaya), Nepal's repeated constitutional transitions, and Pakistan's civil-military oscillations.

  • Bangladesh (2024): Mass student-led protests (initially against job quotas, then against authoritarian governance) forced Sheikh Hasina's resignation on August 5, 2024. An interim government under Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus governed for approximately 18 months before elections.
  • Sri Lanka (2022): The Aragalaya movement forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa's resignation on July 13, 2022, leading to a parliamentary succession (Ranil Wickremesinghe) and subsequent elections in 2024 won by Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
  • Nepal: Seven constitutions since 1948; the most recent (2015) established Nepal as a federal democratic republic after a decade-long Maoist insurgency and the abolition of monarchy (2008).
  • India: Article 356 of the Constitution (President's Rule) has been invoked over 130 times — the S.R. Bommai v. Union of India case (1994) established judicial review of President's Rule and restricted its misuse.
  • Common patterns: Economic grievances as triggers, youth-led mobilisation through social media, military's role as arbiter, and post-transition challenges of institution-building.

Connection to this news: Bangladesh's transition demonstrates both the resilience and fragility of South Asian democracy — while elections restored civilian governance, the underlying challenges of institutional weakness, economic stress, and identity-based politics that triggered the 2024 crisis remain unresolved.

Bangladesh's Economic Challenges — Forex Reserves, Garment Industry, and Remittances

The new BNP government inherits significant economic challenges that could shape its governance trajectory and international engagement. Bangladesh's economy, the third-largest in South Asia, is heavily dependent on garment exports and worker remittances — both of which face structural pressures.

  • Bangladesh's GDP: approximately $460 billion (2024); GDP per capita: approximately $2,700 — higher than India's but vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.
  • Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector: Accounts for approximately 85% of Bangladesh's export earnings and employs approximately 4 million workers (predominantly women). Bangladesh is the world's second-largest garment exporter after China.
  • Remittances: Approximately $23 billion annually (2024) from an estimated 10 million Bangladeshi workers abroad — making Bangladesh one of the top 10 remittance recipients globally.
  • Foreign exchange reserves declined from $46 billion (2021) to approximately $20 billion (2025), straining the country's ability to finance imports and service external debt.
  • The Bangladesh Bank (central bank) has been managing a balance of payments challenge, with the taka depreciating significantly against the US dollar.
  • Under the interim government, the IMF approved a $4.7 billion loan programme (2023) with conditions on fiscal consolidation and governance reforms.

Connection to this news: The BNP government's economic management will be critical for political stability. Balancing IMF conditionalities, managing forex reserves, and maintaining garment industry competitiveness while addressing the protest generation's demands for jobs and reforms represents a formidable governance challenge.

Key Facts & Data

  • BNP alliance: 212 seats; Jamaat alliance: 77 seats (Jamaat alone: 68)
  • Bangladesh GDP: approximately $460 billion; GDP per capita: approximately $2,700
  • RMG exports: approximately 85% of total exports; 4 million workers; second-largest garment exporter globally
  • Remittances: approximately $23 billion/year; approximately 10 million workers abroad
  • Forex reserves: declined from $46 billion (2021) to approximately $20 billion (2025)
  • IMF loan programme: $4.7 billion (approved 2023)
  • Sheikh Hasina ousted: August 5, 2024
  • Interim government under Dr. Muhammad Yunus: August 2024 to February 2026
  • Jamaat-e-Islami founded: 1941 (undivided India, by Abul A'la Maududi)
  • Bangladesh Constitution Article 12: Secularism; Article 2A: Islam as state religion (added by 8th Amendment, 1988)