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Gen Ziaur, Khaleda Zia & now Tarique Rahman: tracing India-Bangladesh ties during BNP years

February 14, 2026 4 min read International Relations GS2 (International Relations India and Neighbourhood)
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What Happened

  • With the BNP's return to power, analysis of India-Bangladesh relations during previous BNP tenures has become central to understanding future bilateral dynamics.
  • India-Bangladesh ties have historically witnessed strain during BNP rule, with disputes over water-sharing, border management, transit rights, and alleged support to insurgent groups dominating the agenda.
  • PM Modi's prompt congratulatory message to Tarique Rahman and BNP's reciprocal "shared commitment to peace and stability" indicate both sides are attempting to set a constructive tone.
  • Tarique Rahman's 17-year exile in London, away from direct bilateral engagement, means his diplomatic approach remains untested.

Static Topic Bridges

India's Neighbourhood First Policy

India's "Neighbourhood First" policy, articulated since 2014, prioritises diplomatic, economic, and security engagement with South Asian neighbours. Bangladesh is central to this framework, being India's largest trade partner in South Asia and a critical node for sub-regional connectivity in the Bay of Bengal.

  • India-Bangladesh bilateral trade: approximately $16 billion (2023-24), with India as Bangladesh's second-largest trading partner after China.
  • Key bilateral mechanisms: Joint Consultative Commission (Foreign Minister level), Joint Rivers Commission (established 1972 to manage 54 shared rivers), and a Defence Cooperation Framework Agreement (2017).
  • Connectivity projects: India extended $8 billion in Lines of Credit to Bangladesh — the largest to any single country — for infrastructure including rail, road, and port connectivity.
  • The Agartala-Akhaura rail link (inaugurated 2023) and the restoration of pre-1965 rail routes are flagship connectivity initiatives.
  • Under Awami League rule, Bangladesh took significant action against anti-India insurgent groups (ULFA, NSCN) operating from its territory — a key Indian security concern likely to be tested under BNP governance.

Connection to this news: BNP's traditional emphasis on strategic autonomy from India could recalibrate the Neighbourhood First framework, particularly on transit rights, counter-terrorism cooperation, and India's connectivity investments in Bangladesh.

Teesta Water Dispute — Centre-State Dynamics in Indian Federalism

The Teesta water-sharing dispute is not merely a bilateral issue but a test case for the intersection of Indian federalism and foreign policy. The Union government's inability to conclude the treaty due to West Bengal's opposition illustrates the constitutional tension between Entry 14 of the Union List (treaties and agreements with foreign countries) and Entry 17 of the State List (water).

  • The Teesta originates in Sikkim, flows through West Bengal's northern districts (Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar), and enters Bangladesh in Rangpur Division — irrigating approximately 2,750 sq km in Bangladesh.
  • A 1983 ad hoc agreement allocated 39% to India and 36% to Bangladesh, but was never formalised.
  • The 2011 draft proposed 42.5% for India and 37.5% for Bangladesh during the dry season (December-March), with 20% remaining unallocated for ecosystem needs.
  • Article 253 of the Constitution empowers Parliament to legislate on treaty implementation, but convention requires state consultation on water matters.
  • The Inter-State River Water Disputes Act, 1956 (amended 2002) provides the domestic framework for river water disputes, though it applies to inter-state (not international) rivers.
  • The Indus Waters Treaty (1960) with Pakistan remains the most successful transboundary water-sharing model in the subcontinent — a potential template for Teesta.

Connection to this news: The new BNP government is expected to prioritise the Teesta issue. China's 2024 offer to help Bangladesh with a $1 billion Teesta river management project during the interim government period added a geopolitical dimension, potentially compelling India to move faster on the water-sharing treaty.

Gujral Doctrine and Non-Reciprocity in Indian Foreign Policy

The Gujral Doctrine, articulated by Prime Minister I.K. Gujral in 1996, held that India, as the region's largest power, should extend unilateral concessions to smaller neighbours without expecting reciprocity. The Ganges Water Treaty (1996) and the Land Boundary Agreement (2015) were products of this approach. However, the doctrine has been questioned for incentivising free-riding and not adequately securing Indian interests.

  • The five principles of the Gujral Doctrine included: India gives and does not demand reciprocity from neighbours (Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, Sri Lanka); no South Asian country allows its territory to be used against another; no country interferes in the internal affairs of another; disputes resolved through bilateral negotiations; and all disputes resolved peacefully.
  • Critics argue the doctrine weakened India's bargaining position, particularly with Bangladesh on transit and counter-terrorism.
  • Under the current government, India has shifted towards a more transactional "Neighbourhood First" approach that expects reciprocal cooperation, especially on security matters.
  • The BNP's traditional posture — resisting Indian transit demands, questioning trade asymmetry, and cultivating China as a counterbalance — tests both doctrines.

Connection to this news: The transition from an Awami League government (which broadly aligned with the Gujral Doctrine's cooperative spirit) to BNP rule is likely to shift bilateral engagement towards more explicit quid-pro-quo diplomacy, testing India's ability to balance generosity with strategic interest protection.

Key Facts & Data

  • India-Bangladesh share 4,096 km of border — India's longest international boundary
  • 54 transboundary rivers flow between India and Bangladesh
  • India's Line of Credit to Bangladesh: approximately $8 billion (largest to any single country)
  • India-Bangladesh bilateral trade: approximately $16 billion (2023-24)
  • Teesta River length: 414 km (309 km in India, 105 km in Bangladesh)
  • Ganges Water Treaty (1996): 30-year agreement, due for renewal in 2026
  • BNP previously in power: 1991-1996 (Khaleda Zia), 2001-2006 (Khaleda Zia)
  • Awami League in power: 1996-2001 (Sheikh Hasina), 2009-2024 (Sheikh Hasina)