What Happened
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that he hopes the India-US trade deal "would not mean that we suffer or experience difficulties and troubles in our bilateral interactions."
- Ryabkov noted that India-Russia trade volumes "have been reasonably high, but potential is even higher," and expressed that India should have "place for everyone and capabilities to interact with everyone."
- He criticised the US approach as wanting "everything for themselves and nothing for others," describing it as "a unilateral approach at its worst."
- The statement came after the US withdrew a punitive 25% tariff imposed on Indian goods in August 2025 over India's purchase of Russian crude, following a framework for an India-US interim trade deal announced on 6 February 2026.
- Under the India-US framework, India reportedly committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian oil — a provision that has significant implications for India-Russia energy trade.
Static Topic Bridges
India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership
India and Russia share a relationship designated as a "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership" — the highest category in India's diplomatic hierarchy. The foundation was laid with the "Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership" signed in October 2000 during President Putin's first visit to India. This was elevated to "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership" in December 2010 during President Medvedev's visit. The relationship is anchored in Cold War-era ties when the Soviet Union was India's primary defence supplier and diplomatic ally, particularly through the 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation.
- Strategic Partnership Declaration: October 2000
- Elevation to Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership: December 2010
- Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation: signed 9 August 1971 (20-year term, not renewed in 1991)
- Annual Summit mechanism between PM of India and President of Russia
- 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue: launched in 2019 (Defence and Foreign Ministers)
- India-Russia bilateral trade: approximately USD 65-69 billion (FY 2024-25), up from USD 10 billion pre-2022
- Major trade imbalance: India's exports to Russia approximately USD 4.9 billion; imports approximately USD 64 billion (mostly crude oil)
Connection to this news: Ryabkov's public expression of concern is unusual for the typically restrained India-Russia diplomatic communication, indicating genuine worry in Moscow that the India-US trade deal could structurally alter the energy trade that has driven the recent surge in bilateral commerce.
India's Russian Oil Imports — Scale and Strategic Significance
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Western sanctions on Russian oil, India dramatically increased its Russian crude imports, drawn by steep discounts. Russian crude's share in India's oil imports rose from approximately 2.5% in 2021 to nearly 40-50% by 2025. This shift made India Russia's second-largest oil customer after China and was a source of diplomatic friction with Western nations. The India-US interim trade deal's reported provision for India to stop importing Russian oil represents a potentially transformative shift in India's energy sourcing strategy.
- India's total crude oil imports: approximately 4.7-5 million barrels per day (India imports ~85% of its crude requirements)
- Russian crude share: ~2.5% of India's imports in 2021; rose to ~40-50% by 2025
- Key Russian crude grades: Urals, ESPO (Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean blend)
- Indian refiners: Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corporation, and Nayara Energy were major buyers of Russian crude
- Price cap mechanism: G7 imposed a USD 60/barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude in December 2022
- India's stated position: India has consistently maintained it buys oil from wherever it gets the best deal, prioritising energy security for 1.4 billion people
- Impact of stopping Russian imports: India would need to source replacement crude from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE), Africa, and the Americas at potentially higher prices
Connection to this news: Ryabkov's concern is rooted in the fact that crude oil constitutes the overwhelming bulk of India-Russia bilateral trade. If India follows through on the commitment to stop Russian oil imports, bilateral trade could collapse from ~USD 65 billion to below USD 10 billion, effectively returning to pre-2022 levels and undermining the economic pillar of the partnership.
India-US Interim Trade Agreement Framework (February 2026)
On 6 February 2026, the United States and India announced a framework for an Interim Trade Agreement. The US agreed to lower the Reciprocal Tariff on India from 25% to 18%, while India committed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on US industrial goods and a broad range of agricultural products, and to purchase USD 500 billion worth of American products over five years. A key component reportedly included India's commitment to cease Russian oil imports.
- Framework announced: 6 February 2026
- US tariff reduction: from 25% to 18% on most Indian imports (textiles, leather, chemicals, machinery, etc.)
- India's commitments: gradual tariff elimination on US industrial and agricultural goods; USD 500 billion in purchases over five years
- Russian oil provision: India committed to "stop directly or indirectly importing" Russian Federation oil
- Broader Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) negotiations launched: 13 February 2025 (Trump-Modi)
- Background: US had imposed additional 25% punitive tariff in August 2025 over India's Russian crude purchases; withdrawn as part of this deal framework
- India-US bilateral trade in goods: approximately USD 120 billion (2024)
Connection to this news: The trade deal creates a structural tension in India's foreign policy — the commitment to stop Russian oil imports directly impacts the India-Russia economic relationship and tests India's long-standing policy of "multi-alignment" or strategic autonomy, which has sought to maintain strong relations with both Russia and the West simultaneously.
India's Multi-Alignment Doctrine
India's contemporary foreign policy is characterised by "multi-alignment" — maintaining strategic partnerships with multiple, often competing, great powers simultaneously. This approach, a departure from Cold War-era non-alignment, was articulated most clearly by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in his 2020 book "The India Way." The doctrine holds that India should have the agency to choose partners based on issue-specific interests rather than ideological blocs. The India-US trade deal's Russian oil provision directly tests the sustainability of this approach.
- Non-Alignment Movement (NAM): India was a founding member (Bandung Conference, 1955; Belgrade Summit, 1961)
- Evolution: Non-alignment to strategic autonomy (post-1991) to multi-alignment (post-2014)
- Key formulations: "India is the only country in the world that is member of the Quad and also buys Russian S-400" — illustrating the multi-alignment balance
- S-400 deal with Russia: USD 5.4 billion contract signed October 2018 for 5 units; 3 delivered; 2 pending
- CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, 2017): US has not imposed sanctions on India for S-400 despite the law's provisions
- India is a member of Quad (with US, Japan, Australia) and also SCO (with Russia, China), BRICS, and maintains strategic partnership with Russia
Connection to this news: Ryabkov's public statement and the India-US deal's oil provision highlight the growing difficulty of multi-alignment when major partners demand exclusivity. India's challenge is to extract maximum benefit from the US trade deal while preserving the defence and diplomatic dimensions of the Russia relationship, even if the energy trade dimension is curtailed.
Key Facts & Data
- India-Russia Strategic Partnership: October 2000; elevated to Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership: December 2010
- India-Russia bilateral trade: approximately USD 65-69 billion (FY 2024-25); up from USD 10 billion pre-2022
- Russian crude share in India's oil imports: ~2.5% (2021) to ~40-50% (2025)
- India-US interim trade deal framework: announced 6 February 2026
- US tariff on India reduced: 25% to 18%
- India's commitment under deal: USD 500 billion in US purchases over 5 years; stop Russian oil imports
- S-400 deal: USD 5.4 billion (October 2018); 5 units ordered; 3 delivered, 2 pending
- CAATSA: enacted 2 August 2017
- India-US bilateral trade in goods: approximately USD 120 billion (2024)
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made this statement in a recent interview