What Happened
- Dr Ziauddin Hyder, adviser to BNP chairman Tarique Rahman, outlined the party's approach to India and its foreign policy stance of "Bangladesh First" ahead of Bangladesh's general election on 12 February 2026.
- The BNP's election manifesto, released on 6 February 2026, adopts the principle of "Bangladesh Before All," signalling an assertive foreign policy posture vis-a-vis India.
- The manifesto pledges firm action on transboundary river water sharing (specifically Teesta and Padma), border killings, and cross-border issues — all sensitive India-related matters.
- BNP has supported moving forward with the China-backed Teesta River Master Plan and the Padma Barrage project, and has pledged to revitalise SAARC.
- India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met Tarique Rahman in Dhaka in December 2025, signalling India's engagement with BNP ahead of elections, after the ouster of pro-India Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina in August 2024.
Static Topic Bridges
India-Bangladesh Bilateral Relations — Historical Framework
India and Bangladesh share a unique historical bond rooted in the 1971 Liberation War, when India provided decisive military support for Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan. The bilateral relationship is governed by multiple frameworks: the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace (signed 19 March 1972, valid for 25 years), the Land Boundary Agreement (2015, implementing the 1974 agreement via the 100th Constitutional Amendment), and various bilateral mechanisms including annual Foreign Secretary-level talks and the Joint Rivers Commission (established 1972). However, the relationship has historically been influenced by which party is in power in Dhaka — the Awami League maintained closer ties with India, while BNP has traditionally adopted a more distant posture.
- Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace: signed 19 March 1972 (Mujib-Indira); 25-year duration; not renewed after 1997
- Land Boundary Agreement: India ratified via 100th Constitutional Amendment Act, 2015 (exchanged 162 enclaves)
- Joint Rivers Commission: established 1972 to address water-sharing of 54 common rivers
- Bangladesh is India's biggest trade partner in South Asia; bilateral trade: USD 14.01 billion (FY 2023-24)
- India's exports to Bangladesh: USD 12.05 billion; Bangladesh's exports to India: USD 1.97 billion (FY 2023-24) — significant trade deficit for Bangladesh
- Sheikh Hasina ousted in student-led uprising: August 2024; interim government under Muhammad Yunus; general election scheduled: 12 February 2026
Connection to this news: BNP's "Bangladesh First" posture reflects a potential recalibration of the bilateral relationship. India's proactive engagement with Tarique Rahman (Jaishankar's December 2025 visit) indicates New Delhi is pragmatically preparing for a possible BNP-led government, despite the historically more adversarial nature of BNP-India relations.
Teesta Water Sharing Dispute
The Teesta River originates in Sikkim (Tso Lhamo Lake), flows through West Bengal, and enters Bangladesh where it is critical for agriculture and irrigation in the Rangpur division. The Teesta water dispute has been one of the most contentious issues in India-Bangladesh relations. A near-final agreement was reached in 2011 under which India would receive 42.5% and Bangladesh 37.5% of the dry-season flow, but it was shelved due to opposition from the Trinamool Congress government in West Bengal.
- Teesta River: originates in Sikkim, flows ~414 km, enters Bangladesh in the Rangpur district
- 1983 ad hoc arrangement: India 39%, Bangladesh 36% of Teesta waters
- 2011 interim agreement (never signed): India 42.5%, Bangladesh 37.5% of dry-season flow — blocked by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's objections
- The impasse reflects the federal dimension of India's water diplomacy — river water is a State subject under Entry 17 of the State List (Seventh Schedule), though inter-state river disputes fall under Union List (Entry 56)
- BNP manifesto supports the China-backed Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Plan, a proposal that India views with strategic concern
Connection to this news: BNP's manifesto pledge to pursue the Teesta issue assertively, including openness to the China-backed Teesta Master Plan, adds a geopolitical dimension to what has traditionally been a bilateral water-sharing dispute. This could bring China's influence into a domain previously limited to India-Bangladesh bilateral negotiation.
Ganges Water Treaty (1996) and Transboundary Water Governance
The Ganges Water Treaty, signed on 12 December 1996 between Indian PM H.D. Deve Gowda and Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, is the primary framework governing Ganges water sharing. It established a 30-year formula for sharing water at the Farakka Barrage point, with provisions for equal sharing when flow falls below 70,000 cusecs. The Farakka Barrage, built in 1974, diverts Ganges water into the Hooghly River to maintain navigability at Kolkata Port.
- Ganges Water Treaty: signed 12 December 1996; 30-year duration (expires 2026)
- Sharing formula: equal 50:50 split if flow is 70,000 cusecs or less; Bangladesh gets 35,000 cusecs if flow is between 70,000-75,000 cusecs
- Farakka Barrage: built 1974, 2,240 metres long, located in Murshidabad district, West Bengal
- Joint Rivers Commission (est. 1972) oversees water-sharing of 54 common rivers
- Analysis shows Bangladesh did not receive its stipulated share in 39 out of 60 lean-season periods between 1997-2016
- BNP manifesto pledges construction of Padma Barrage in response to India's Farakka Barrage
Connection to this news: The Ganges Water Treaty expires in 2026, making this a critical year for renegotiation. A BNP government would likely adopt a more assertive negotiating posture on both Ganges and Teesta, potentially leveraging China's interest in Bangladesh infrastructure to gain additional bargaining leverage with India.
SAARC and Regional Multilateralism in South Asia
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was established in 1985 with its secretariat in Kathmandu. It comprises 8 member states: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Afghanistan. SAARC has been effectively dormant since 2016, when the 19th SAARC Summit scheduled in Islamabad was boycotted by India and several member states following the Uri terrorist attack. BNP's pledge to revitalise SAARC is significant in the context of India's preference for sub-regional groupings like BIMSTEC.
- SAARC established: 8 December 1985; headquarters: Kathmandu, Nepal
- 8 member states; 9 observer states (including China, the US, the EU, Japan)
- Last summit: 18th SAARC Summit in Kathmandu (November 2014); 19th Summit in Islamabad cancelled/indefinitely postponed since 2016
- India has shifted focus to BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) — 7 members: India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal, Bhutan
- SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area): operational since 2006 under SAARC framework
Connection to this news: BNP's call to revitalise SAARC contrasts with India's strategic preference for BIMSTEC, which excludes Pakistan. A BNP government's push for SAARC revival could create diplomatic friction with India, which views SAARC as held hostage by India-Pakistan tensions and prefers forums where progress is not contingent on Pakistani cooperation.
Key Facts & Data
- Bangladesh general election date: 12 February 2026
- BNP manifesto released: 6 February 2026; principle: "Bangladesh Before All"
- India-Bangladesh bilateral trade: USD 14.01 billion (FY 2023-24)
- Teesta River length: approximately 414 km; originates in Sikkim
- 2011 Teesta agreement (unsigned): India 42.5%, Bangladesh 37.5% of dry-season flow
- Ganges Water Treaty: signed 12 December 1996; 30-year duration (expires 2026)
- 54 common rivers shared between India and Bangladesh
- SAARC: 8 members, established 1985; last summit: November 2014 (Kathmandu)
- Jaishankar-Tarique Rahman meeting: December 2025 in Dhaka
- Sheikh Hasina ousted: August 2024; interim PM: Muhammad Yunus