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​New beginnings: On the end of START as opportunity

February 10, 2026 4 min read International Relations Internal Security GS2 (International Relations) GS3 (Internal Security)
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What Happened

  • The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) between the United States and Russia expired on 5 February 2026, leaving no binding limits on the two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in over 50 years
  • The treaty, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021 for five years, capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 per side and allowed 18 on-site inspections annually
  • The US administration has called for a new treaty framework that includes China alongside Russia, while Russia had suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023
  • The expiry comes ahead of the 11th NPT Review Conference scheduled for April-May 2026, raising concerns about the credibility of nuclear disarmament commitments under NPT Article VI

Static Topic Bridges

New START Treaty (2010)

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was signed on 8 April 2010 by the US and Russia in Prague. It replaced the earlier START I treaty (1991) and the Moscow Treaty (SORT, 2002). New START provided legally binding, verifiable limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.

  • Limited each party to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads
  • Limited deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers to 700; deployed and non-deployed launchers to 800
  • Provided for 18 on-site inspections per year (10 Type One + 8 Type Two) and biannual data exchanges
  • Entered into force on 5 February 2011; extended in January 2021 for five years under the Biden administration
  • Covered six types of delivery vehicles: land-based ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers
  • Russia suspended participation in February 2023 amid the Ukraine conflict, though it stated it would continue to observe warhead limits

Connection to this news: The treaty's expiry without a successor agreement removes the last legally binding constraint on US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals, ending a verification and transparency regime that has operated continuously since the original START I entered into force in 1994.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) — Article VI

The NPT, opened for signature in 1968 and entering into force in 1970, is the cornerstone of the global non-proliferation regime. Article VI contains the only binding multilateral obligation requiring nuclear-weapon states to pursue negotiations in good faith toward nuclear disarmament.

  • 191 states parties (as of 2026); India, Pakistan, Israel, and South Sudan are non-signatories
  • Three pillars: non-proliferation, disarmament, and peaceful use of nuclear energy
  • The 11th Review Conference is scheduled for 27 April to 22 May 2026 at UN Headquarters, New York
  • The 2015 and 2020 Review Conferences failed to adopt substantive outcome documents
  • The International Court of Justice in its 1996 Advisory Opinion held that Article VI creates a binding obligation to pursue and conclude negotiations on nuclear disarmament

Connection to this news: The absence of any US-Russia arms control treaty undermines the Article VI commitment and risks deepening the divide between nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states at the upcoming 2026 Review Conference.

India's Nuclear Doctrine — Credible Minimum Deterrence and No First Use

India's nuclear doctrine, formalized through the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) review of January 2003, is based on the principles of credible minimum deterrence (CMD) and no first use (NFU). India is not a signatory to the NPT but maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing since 1998.

  • India conducted its first nuclear test (Smiling Buddha) in 1974 and declared itself a nuclear weapons state after the Pokhran-II tests in May 1998
  • The doctrine commits to NFU, with nuclear weapons to be used only in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere
  • Exception: India reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a major biological or chemical weapons attack
  • India's nuclear triad: land-based Agni missiles (Agni-I to Agni-V), sea-based INS Arihant-class SSBNs, and air-delivered bombs
  • Estimated arsenal: approximately 170 warheads (independent assessments), though India has not officially disclosed the number
  • India has consistently advocated for universal, verifiable, and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament

Connection to this news: The collapse of bilateral arms control between the US and Russia, combined with China's expanding nuclear arsenal, directly impacts the strategic calculus in India's neighbourhood and could prompt a reassessment of what constitutes "credible minimum" deterrence.

Key Facts & Data

  • New START signed: 8 April 2010 (Prague); entered into force: 5 February 2011; expired: 5 February 2026
  • Warhead limit: 1,550 deployed strategic warheads per side
  • Delivery vehicle limits: 700 deployed; 800 deployed + non-deployed
  • Global nuclear warheads (estimated 2025): ~12,100 total — Russia (~5,580), US (~5,044), China (~500), France (~290), UK (~225), India (~170), Pakistan (~170), Israel (~90), DPRK (~50)
  • NPT 11th Review Conference: 27 April to 22 May 2026, New York
  • India's position: not a signatory to NPT, CTBT, or any bilateral arms control treaty; advocates for universal disarmament