What Happened
- As Bangladesh heads to a landmark election on February 12, 2026, anti-India sentiment has become a dominant political theme, used as both "shield and sword" by the main contenders.
- The Awami League, historically close to India, has been banned from participating in the elections following its role in the 2024 crackdown on student-led protests that killed approximately 1,400 people.
- The two main contenders are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JIB) alliance, both of which have leveraged anti-India rhetoric in varying degrees.
- Former PM Sheikh Hasina remains in exile in India, with her extradition a live diplomatic issue. Anti-India sentiment intensified after India's refusal to return her.
- Relations between India and Bangladesh have deteriorated significantly since Hasina's ousting in August 2024, with both countries imposing restrictions on each other's exports and diplomatic engagements reaching a historic low.
Static Topic Bridges
India-Bangladesh Relations — Historical Context and Bilateral Architecture
India and Bangladesh share a uniquely intertwined history. India played a decisive role in Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan during the 1971 Liberation War. Bilateral relations have oscillated between warmth and tension depending on the political party in power in Dhaka — the Awami League has traditionally maintained closer ties with India, while the BNP has historically been more equidistant between India and other regional actors.
- India recognised Bangladesh on December 6, 1971; Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation signed on March 19, 1972 (25-year term, not renewed)
- The India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) was ratified in 2015 through the 100th Constitutional Amendment Act in India and the 119th Amendment in Bangladesh, resolving 68 years of enclaves issue
- India-Bangladesh bilateral trade: approximately $13-14 billion; India is Bangladesh's largest trading partner in Asia
- Key bilateral issues: Teesta water sharing (Agreement pending since 2011), illegal migration, border management (4,096 km border — India's longest), connectivity (including the Padma Bridge and Akhaura-Agartala rail link), and Rohingya refugees
- India exports electricity to Bangladesh (approximately 1,160 MW) and has extended multiple Lines of Credit totalling over $8 billion
Connection to this news: The current election represents a potential turning point in India-Bangladesh relations. With the Awami League banned, any elected government will come from parties that have historically been more critical of India, making the management of this bilateral relationship a key foreign policy challenge for New Delhi.
Bangladesh's Political Party Landscape
Bangladesh's politics has been dominated by two parties since the restoration of democracy in 1991: the Awami League (AL), led by Sheikh Hasina (daughter of founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman), and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), founded by Ziaur Rahman. Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JIB) has been a significant third force, often as a coalition partner.
- Awami League: founded 1949; led the 1971 independence movement; secular-nationalist orientation; historically close to India
- BNP: founded 1978 by President Ziaur Rahman; centre-right; has historically allied with Jamaat-e-Islami; advocates a more balanced foreign policy between India, China, and Pakistan
- Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh: Islamist party founded 1941; opposed Bangladesh's independence in 1971; several of its leaders were tried and convicted by the International Crimes Tribunal for war crimes during 1971
- In the 2024 political crisis, the BNP broke its alliance with Jamaat; Jamaat has since partnered with leaders of the 2024 student protest movement
- The interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has been in power since Hasina's ouster in August 2024
Connection to this news: The Awami League's exclusion from the 2026 elections fundamentally alters Bangladesh's political landscape. Both BNP and Jamaat have histories of wielding anti-India sentiment, making the election outcome significant for the trajectory of India-Bangladesh bilateral relations.
BIMSTEC and Regional Multilateral Architecture in the Bay of Bengal
The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organisation comprising seven member states around the Bay of Bengal — Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. It has become increasingly important for India as an alternative to SAARC, which has been dysfunctional since 2016 due to India-Pakistan tensions.
- BIMSTEC was established in 1997 (originally as BIST-EC); the BIMSTEC Charter was adopted at the 5th Summit in Colombo (2022), giving it a formal legal identity
- Headquarters: Dhaka, Bangladesh (Secretariat established 2014)
- BIMSTEC covers 14 priority areas including trade, technology, energy, transport, tourism, fisheries, agriculture, climate change, and counter-terrorism
- India's PM Modi and Bangladesh's Chief Adviser Yunus met on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, Thailand, in April 2025 — their first bilateral meeting since Hasina's ouster
- BIMSTEC is significant for India's "Neighbourhood First" and "Act East" policies, bridging South and Southeast Asia
Connection to this news: BIMSTEC provides one of the few multilateral platforms for India-Bangladesh engagement. The Bangkok meeting between Modi and Yunus on BIMSTEC's sidelines illustrates how multilateral forums can facilitate bilateral contact when direct relations are strained, which may be especially relevant depending on the election outcome.
Key Facts & Data
- Bangladesh election date: February 12, 2026
- Awami League: banned from participating; Sheikh Hasina in exile in India since August 2024
- Deaths in 2024 protests: approximately 1,400 people killed during the crackdown
- Main contenders: BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami alliance
- India-Bangladesh border: 4,096 km (India's longest international border)
- India-Bangladesh bilateral trade: approximately $13-14 billion
- Indian Lines of Credit to Bangladesh: over $8 billion
- India's electricity export to Bangladesh: approximately 1,160 MW
- Interim government head: Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus (since August 2024)
- India recognised Bangladesh: December 6, 1971