What Happened
- Anti-India sentiment is rising among Bangladesh's youth, pushing bilateral ties to a new low
- The deterioration followed the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 through a student-led uprising, after which she fled to India
- In December 2025, the assassination of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi triggered massive anti-India protests when reports suggested the attacker fled to India
- Both nations suspended regular visa services in December 2025, effectively cutting people-to-people ties
- Bangladesh's February 2026 national elections were held with the Awami League barred from contesting, bringing more India-sceptical parties to the fore
Static Topic Bridges
India-Bangladesh Bilateral Relations: Historical Framework
India-Bangladesh relations have oscillated between deep cooperation and periodic strain, with India's role in the 1971 Liberation War forming the foundational bond, and subsequent political dynamics shaping the trajectory.
- India played a decisive role in Bangladesh's liberation in 1971 — providing military support, hosting approximately 10 million refugees, and recognising Bangladesh as an independent state
- Land Boundary Agreement (LBA): Ratified in 2015, resolving a 41-year-old border dispute involving 162 enclaves
- The Ganges Water Treaty (1996): 30-year agreement for sharing Farakka Barrage waters — expired in 2026, with the Teesta water-sharing agreement still pending
- Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline: Inaugurated for diesel supply from India
- India-Bangladesh border: 4,096 km — India's longest land border with any country
- Under Sheikh Hasina's rule (2009-2024): India-Bangladesh relations were characterised as a "Golden Era" — transit agreements, connectivity projects, counterterrorism cooperation, and suppression of anti-India insurgent groups using Bangladeshi territory
- India extended three Lines of Credit totalling approximately $8 billion to Bangladesh
Connection to this news: Hasina's ouster removed the political foundation of the "Golden Era," revealing that India's Bangladesh policy had become over-reliant on a single leader, leaving it vulnerable when political change occurred.
Water Disputes in South Asian Bilateral Relations
The pending Teesta water-sharing agreement is one of the most contentious issues in India-Bangladesh relations and has been a persistent source of Bangladeshi grievance against India.
- Teesta River: Originates in Sikkim, flows through West Bengal and northern Bangladesh before joining the Brahmaputra (Jamuna) in Bangladesh
- The Teesta water-sharing agreement was ready for signing in 2011 but was blocked by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who objected to the proposed water-sharing formula
- Bangladesh claims it receives only about 25% of Teesta's dry-season flow due to India's Gajoldoba Barrage diversion
- Approximately 20 million people in northern Bangladesh depend on the Teesta for agriculture
- The Farakka Barrage on the Ganges (built 1975): A persistent irritant — Bangladesh alleges it diverts excessive water, causing downstream salinity intrusion and ecological damage
- India and Bangladesh share 54 transboundary rivers — only the Ganges has a formal water-sharing agreement
- The Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), established in 1972, is the bilateral mechanism for water issues but has met infrequently
Connection to this news: Water disputes, particularly the unresolved Teesta issue, are frequently cited by Bangladesh's opposition and youth as evidence of India's unfair treatment — the new government may leverage public sentiment to press harder for a Teesta agreement.
Neighbourhood First Policy and Its Challenges
India's "Neighbourhood First" policy, articulated since 2014, prioritises engagement with immediate neighbours. Bangladesh has been a centrepiece of this policy, but recent events expose its structural limitations.
- "Neighbourhood First" covers: Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Maldives, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
- Key instruments: Lines of Credit, infrastructure projects (BBIN corridor, India-Bangladesh rail links, grid connectivity), humanitarian assistance, capacity building
- India's approach has been criticised for: Over-reliance on incumbent leaders rather than building broad-based relationships across political spectrums
- Similar challenges have arisen in: Maldives (Muizzu's "India Out" campaign in 2024), Nepal (periodic anti-India sentiment tied to border blockade memories of 2015), Sri Lanka (debt-trap concerns and China competition)
- India's development assistance to Bangladesh: Three LoCs totalling ~$8 billion (largest single-country allocation)
- Connectivity projects: Agartala-Akhaura rail link (opened 2023), Maitree Express, Bandhan Express, Mitali Express
- India's "development-first diplomacy" model is being challenged by China's BRI investments in the neighbourhood — Bangladesh is a BRI partner with Chinese-funded infrastructure projects including the Padma Bridge rail link and Payra port
Connection to this news: The Bangladesh crisis exposes a structural weakness in India's Neighbourhood First policy — when a friendly government falls, India's investments and relationships can quickly erode if they were personalised rather than institutionalised across political parties and civil society.
Key Facts & Data
- India-Bangladesh border: 4,096 km (India's longest land border with any country)
- Hasina ouster: August 5, 2024, following student-led uprising
- Visa suspension: Both countries suspended regular visa services in December 2025
- India's LoCs to Bangladesh: ~$8 billion across three tranches
- Transboundary rivers shared: 54 rivers (only Ganges has a formal treaty)
- Ganges Water Treaty: Signed 1996, 30-year duration
- Teesta agreement: Pending since 2011; blocked by West Bengal government
- Land Boundary Agreement: Ratified 2015, resolved 162 enclaves
- Bangladesh elections: February 12, 2026, with Awami League barred from contesting
- December 2025 crisis trigger: Assassination of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi