What Happened
- The New START treaty — the last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement — expired on February 5, 2026
- The expiration removes binding limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear warheads for the first time since 1972
- Russia suspended participation in New START in February 2023 but stated it would continue abiding by numerical limits as long as the US does the same
- The Trump administration has stated that any new nuclear arms control treaty should include China
- The UN Secretary-General warned this represents a "grave moment" for international peace and security
Static Topic Bridges
Evolution of Nuclear Arms Control Treaties
The expiration of New START marks the end of a five-decade-long framework of bilateral nuclear arms control between the US and Russia/USSR. Understanding this evolution is essential for UPSC International Relations.
- SALT I (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, 1972): First US-Soviet agreement to limit strategic nuclear arsenals, including the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty
- SALT II (1979): Set limits on strategic nuclear launchers; signed but never ratified by the US Senate due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
- INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, 1987): Eliminated all US and Soviet ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500-5,500 km; the US withdrew in 2019 citing Russian violations
- START I (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, 1991): First treaty to actually reduce nuclear arsenals — limited each side to 6,000 warheads and 1,600 delivery vehicles; expired 2009
- START II (1993): Would have banned MIRVed ICBMs; signed but never entered into force
- SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty/Moscow Treaty, 2002): Limited deployed warheads to 1,700-2,200; superseded by New START
- New START (2010): Limited each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers/bombers; extended in 2021 for five years until February 5, 2026
Connection to this news: The expiration of New START leaves no binding legal framework constraining US and Russian nuclear arsenals — a situation without precedent since the beginning of nuclear arms control in 1972, raising risks of a new arms race.
Nuclear Weapons Stockpiles and the Global Nuclear Order
The post-New START environment must be understood in the context of current global nuclear weapons stockpiles and the broader non-proliferation architecture.
- Global nuclear warheads (estimated, 2025): approximately 12,100 total
- Russia: ~5,580 (largest stockpile)
- United States: ~5,044
- China: ~500 (rapidly expanding, projected to reach 1,000-1,500 by 2035)
- France: ~290
- United Kingdom: ~225
- Pakistan: ~170
- India: ~170
- Israel: ~90 (undeclared)
- North Korea: ~50
- New START limited deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 per side; total stockpiles (including reserves and retired weapons awaiting dismantlement) are significantly larger
- The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT, 1968): Recognises five Nuclear Weapon States (US, Russia, UK, France, China); India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea are outside the NPT
- The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW, 2021): Bans nuclear weapons outright; none of the nuclear-armed states have signed it
- The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996): Not yet in force — the US, China, India, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, and Israel have not ratified
Connection to this news: Without New START, the verification and transparency mechanisms that gave both sides confidence about each other's arsenal levels disappear — increasing the risk of miscalculation and potentially triggering an expansion of nuclear arsenals by multiple states.
India's Nuclear Doctrine and Arms Control Position
India, as a nuclear-armed state outside the NPT, has a distinctive position on nuclear arms control — supporting general disarmament while maintaining its own deterrent.
- India's nuclear doctrine (announced 2003): Based on "credible minimum deterrence" and "no first use" (NFU) — India will not initiate a nuclear strike but reserves the right to massive retaliation
- India conducted nuclear tests: Pokhran-I (1974, "Peaceful Nuclear Explosion") and Pokhran-II (1998, Operation Shakti — 5 tests)
- India's nuclear triad: Land-based (Agni series missiles, range up to 5,000+ km), sea-based (INS Arihant, Arihant-class SSBNs with K-4/K-15 SLBMs), and air-based (Rafale, Mirage-2000, Su-30MKI)
- India has consistently called for universal nuclear disarmament — PM Rajiv Gandhi's Action Plan for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World (1988) at the UN General Assembly
- India has voluntarily maintained a testing moratorium since 1998
- India is a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver country (2008 India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement) but not a formal NSG member due to China's block
- India's position on New START expiry: India would be affected by a new arms race, particularly if China's arsenal expansion accelerates — China is India's primary strategic competitor
Connection to this news: The expiration of US-Russia arms control could trigger a cascading effect — if China accelerates its nuclear buildup (no longer constrained by even the political pressure of bilateral US-Russia limits), India and Pakistan may face pressure to expand their arsenals, destabilising South Asian strategic stability.
Key Facts & Data
- New START expired: February 5, 2026
- New START limits: 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, 800 deployed/non-deployed launchers per side
- Global nuclear warheads: ~12,100 (Russia ~5,580, US ~5,044, China ~500)
- China's projected arsenal: 1,000-1,500 warheads by 2035
- India's nuclear doctrine: Credible Minimum Deterrence + No First Use
- India's nuclear tests: Pokhran-I (1974), Pokhran-II (1998)
- INF Treaty: US withdrew in 2019
- Nuclear arms control timeline: SALT I (1972) → SALT II (1979) → INF (1987) → START I (1991) → SORT (2002) → New START (2010-2026)
- NPT Nuclear Weapon States: US, Russia, UK, France, China
- TPNW (Nuclear Ban Treaty): Entered into force 2021; no nuclear-armed state has signed
- Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan: 1988 — called for universal nuclear disarmament