What Happened
- Myanmar's military junta conducted elections in three phases between December 2025 and January 2026, with the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) winning a predictable majority — 232 of 263 seats in the lower Pyithu Hluttaw and 109 of 157 seats announced so far in the upper Amyotha Hluttaw.
- Voting was held in only 265 of Myanmar's 330 townships, largely confined to urban wards, as most rural areas remain under resistance control. The junta claimed approximately 55% voter turnout (13.14 million of 24 million eligible voters).
- India's External Affairs Ministry reiterated support for Myanmar's democratic transition, stating any electoral process must be "free, fair and inclusive with participation of all political stakeholders."
- Over 90,000 Myanmar refugees have entered India's northeastern states, primarily Mizoram and Manipur, creating humanitarian and security pressures.
- Indian-backed connectivity projects in Myanmar, including the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, face continued delays due to conflict in project areas.
Static Topic Bridges
India's Act East Policy and Myanmar Connectivity Projects
India's Act East Policy (upgraded from Look East Policy in 2014) positions Myanmar as the land bridge connecting India to Southeast Asia. Two flagship connectivity projects underpin this strategy: the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (linking Kolkata to Mizoram via Myanmar's Sittwe port and the Kaladan river) and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway (a 1,400-km road from Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar).
- Kaladan project: all components (Sittwe port, river dredging, Paletwa jetty) completed except the Zorinpui-Paletwa road; India announced full operationalisation by 2027
- Kaladan project faces indefinite setback after the rebel Arakan Army captured Paletwa in early 2026
- Trilateral Highway: approved at ministerial meeting in 2002; approximately 70% complete; remaining 30% stalled due to Myanmar's internal conflict
- India shares a 1,643-km border with Myanmar across four northeastern states: Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram
- Free Movement Regime (FMR): allowed border residents to travel up to 16 km across the border without visas; India suspended FMR in February 2024 and began border fencing
Connection to this news: The military-scripted elections do not resolve the ground-level insecurity that has stalled India's connectivity projects. The junta's claims of post-election normalisation are unlikely to translate into improved implementation conditions for either the Kaladan project or the Trilateral Highway.
ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar
In April 2021, following the February 1, 2021 military coup that ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, ASEAN leaders held a special meeting and agreed on a Five-Point Consensus. The five points are: (1) immediate cessation of violence, (2) constructive dialogue among all parties, (3) appointment of an ASEAN Special Envoy, (4) humanitarian assistance through ASEAN mechanisms, and (5) the Special Envoy's visit to Myanmar to meet all parties.
- ASEAN has 10 member states; Myanmar joined in 1997
- Myanmar was barred from chairing ASEAN in 2026; the Philippines was given the chairmanship instead, pushing Myanmar's turn to 2036
- The junta has largely ignored the Five-Point Consensus; the Special Envoy has been denied access to political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi
- ASEAN's principle of non-interference limits the bloc's ability to take coercive action against Myanmar
- India is not an ASEAN member but is a Summit-level Dialogue Partner (since 2002)
Connection to this news: The failure of ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus and the military-managed elections leave India in a difficult position — it must maintain working relations with the junta for border security and connectivity projects while avoiding international criticism for legitimising the regime.
India-Myanmar Border Security and Insurgency Dynamics
Myanmar's 1,643-km border with India runs through terrain inhabited by ethnic communities with cross-border kinship ties (Nagas, Kukis, Chins, Mizos). The porous border has historically facilitated insurgent movement, arms trafficking, and narcotics smuggling. Indian insurgent groups such as NSCN-K (National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang), PLA (People's Liberation Army of Manipur), and UNLF (United National Liberation Front) have maintained camps in Myanmar's Sagaing region.
- India-Myanmar border: 1,643 km across Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram
- Free Movement Regime (FMR) suspended: February 2024; India announced plans to fence the entire border
- Over 90,000 Myanmar refugees in northeast India (primarily Mizoram and Manipur)
- India conducted cross-border operations in Myanmar: Operation Hot Pursuit (2015) against NSCN-K camps in Myanmar
- Golden Triangle (Myanmar-Laos-Thailand junction): major global narcotics production zone; methamphetamine and heroin flow through northeast India
- Arakan Army (AA) controls significant territory in Rakhine and Chin states, affecting Kaladan project areas
Connection to this news: The military-scripted elections have not restored stability along the India-Myanmar border. Continued civil war, refugee inflows, and insurgent movements make border management one of India's most pressing security challenges in the region.
Key Facts & Data
- Myanmar coup: February 1, 2021; military (Tatmadaw) led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
- USDP election results: 232 of 263 lower house seats; 109 of 157 upper house seats (announced)
- Townships where voting occurred: 265 of 330 (approximately 80%)
- Claimed voter turnout: ~55% (13.14 million of 24 million eligible)
- India-Myanmar border length: 1,643 km across 4 northeastern states
- Myanmar refugees in India: over 90,000 (primarily in Mizoram and Manipur)
- Trilateral Highway: 1,400 km (Moreh-Mae Sot); ~70% complete
- Kaladan project full operationalisation target: 2027
- ASEAN Five-Point Consensus: April 2021; Myanmar barred from ASEAN chairmanship until 2036
- India's FMR with Myanmar suspended: February 2024