What Happened
- As the US-Israel military campaign against Iran entered its third week in March 2026, Iran has drawn from one of the world's largest and most diverse missile and drone arsenals to conduct retaliatory strikes.
- Iran's ballistic missile stockpile, estimated at approximately 2,500 missiles as of February 2026, includes short-range, medium-range, and newly developed hypersonic-capable systems.
- Iran's drone fleet — particularly the Shahed series of one-way attack drones — has been deployed in waves designed to overwhelm air defence systems, with simultaneous ballistic missile salvos as a saturation tactic.
- Prior to the current conflict, a 12-day war in mid-2025 saw Israel destroy hundreds of Iranian missiles; Iran has since rebuilt its stockpile at a rate of dozens of missiles per month.
- Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation — a move with major implications for global oil supply and India's energy security.
Static Topic Bridges
Ballistic Missiles: Technology, Classification, and Global Proliferation
A ballistic missile follows a high-arcing, gravity-governed trajectory after the rocket burns out — distinct from cruise missiles, which use sustained propulsion like jet engines. Ballistic missiles are classified by range: Short-Range (SRBM, under 1,000 km), Medium-Range (MRBM, 1,000-3,000 km), Intermediate-Range (IRBM, 3,000-5,500 km), and Intercontinental (ICBM, over 5,500 km). Solid-fuel missiles offer faster launch readiness than liquid-fuel systems and are harder to detect before launch — a key reason Iran has invested in solid-fuel variants like Sejjil and Fateh.
- Iran's Shahab series (liquid fuel): Shahab-1 (~300 km), Shahab-2 (~500 km), Shahab-3 (~1,300 km) — derived from North Korean Nodong missile technology.
- Iran's solid-fuel precision systems: Zolfaghar (~700 km), Fateh-110, Kheibar Shekan (~1,450 km, introduced 2022), Haj Qassem (~1,400 km).
- Iran's advanced systems: Khorramshahr (2,000 km), Sejjil (2,000-2,500 km), Fattah-1/2 (claimed hypersonic, Mach 13-15, ~1,400-1,500 km).
- Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR): Voluntary export-control arrangement (34 members) restricting transfer of missiles capable of delivering WMDs over 300 km with 500 kg payload. India joined MTCR in 2016.
- Iran is not a member of MTCR and has transferred missile technology to Hezbollah, Houthis, and other proxy groups.
Connection to this news: Iran's missile doctrine — deep inventory, saturation attack strategy, proxy network — represents a layered deterrence model studied globally, including by Indian defence planners assessing asymmetric threats from Pakistan and non-state actors.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Drone Warfare
The Shahed-136 (and its variants Shahed-131) is Iran's signature one-way attack drone — a "loitering munition" or "kamikaze drone" — with a range of up to 2,500 km, carrying a 40-50 kg warhead. Cheap to mass-produce, drones are used in waves to saturate air defence radars before more expensive ballistic missiles are launched. Iran's drone programme has been validated in conflict zones from Yemen (Houthis) to Ukraine (Shahed-136 supplied to Russia). UAVs are now a central plank of asymmetric warfare doctrine globally.
- Loitering munitions differ from conventional drones in that they are not recovered — they are designed to strike and self-destruct.
- The Shahed-136 is sometimes called a "suicide drone" and is reportedly guided by GPS combined with optical guidance in terminal phase.
- India's own UAV programmes: DRDO's Rustom series, Tapas BH-201 (MALE UAV), Archer-NG; India has also procured MQ-9B Sea Guardian (armed variant pending approval) from the US.
- India's UAV policy: India has approved procurement of 31 MQ-9B drones from the US for ₹21,000 crore — the largest defence deal of FY2024.
- Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS) and drone swarms are increasingly part of India's integrated battlefield doctrine under Integrated Theatre Commands.
Connection to this news: Iran's proven drone-missile combination tactic is directly relevant to India's own threat assessment — both Pakistan and non-state actors have begun investing in cheap loitering munitions, and India's air defence modernisation (S-400 Triumf, Barak-8, Akash) must contend with similar saturation scenarios.
Iran's Strategic Missile Doctrine and Regional Deterrence
Iran follows a doctrine of "forward defence" — using proxy forces (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Iraqi PMFs, Syrian militias) and direct missile capability as a deterrence umbrella. This "Axis of Resistance" is designed to impose costs on adversaries without triggering full-scale conventional warfare. The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) — a parallel military force separate from the regular Iranian Army — controls the missile programme and proxy networks. The IRGC is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US (since 2019), complicating diplomatic engagement.
- Iran possesses the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East: estimated 2,500+ missiles as of early 2026.
- Iran's missile programme is indigenous, having been built up since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, and is now largely self-sufficient due to Western sanctions.
- The Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA, 2010) and subsequent US executive orders have targeted Iran's missile procurement networks.
- India-Iran ties: India has historically separated the nuclear/missile dimension from bilateral economic engagement (Chabahar, energy imports).
Connection to this news: Iran's ability to sustain retaliatory missile campaigns even after Israeli strikes on its military infrastructure illustrates the resilience of its deterrence model — and the challenge of military coercion against a state with dispersed, hardened missile infrastructure.
Key Facts & Data
- Iran's ballistic missile stockpile (Feb 2026 estimate): ~2,500 missiles
- Longest-range operational system: Sejjil (~2,000-2,500 km, solid fuel)
- Hypersonic-claimed systems: Fattah-1/2 (Mach 13-15, ~1,400-1,500 km)
- Shahed-136 drone range: up to 2,500 km; warhead: ~40-50 kg
- Strait of Hormuz: ~21 million barrels/day oil transit; Iran declared it closed in March 2026
- MTCR: 34 member countries; India joined in 2016
- IRGC designated as Foreign Terrorist Organization by US: 2019
- India's S-400 Triumf batteries: 5 units contracted (3 delivered); designed to counter exactly these types of saturation attacks
- India's MQ-9B drone procurement: 31 drones, ₹21,000 crore