Forecasts indicate El Niño to grow stronger during monsoon: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially announced the onset of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean as of June 2026. IMD's f...

What Happened

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially announced the onset of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean as of June 2026.
IMD's forecast indicates El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen during the monsoon season (June–September 2026).
The rainfall shortfall is projected to be most pronounced in the second half of the season — August and September — when El Niño's atmospheric circulation patterns become fully entrenched.
IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall at 90–95% of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the 2026 southwest monsoon season.
The Agriculture Ministry has activated contingency measures for 197 districts identified as most vulnerable to El Niño impacts.
A developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to partially buffer the drying effect of El Niño, but is unlikely to offset it fully.
NOAA also declared El Niño underway in the tropical Pacific on June 11, 2026.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño Mechanism and Its Impact on the Indian Monsoon

El Niño refers to the anomalous warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface waters, occurring irregularly every 2–7 years. It disrupts the Walker Circulation — the east-west atmospheric circulation driven by temperature gradients across the Pacific.

During El Niño, the normally warm western Pacific cools and the eastern Pacific warms, weakening the Walker Circulation.
This suppresses the low-pressure system over the Indian subcontinent that drives the southwest monsoon, resulting in below-normal rainfall.
Historically, approximately 60% of El Niño years in India coincide with deficient or below-normal monsoon seasons.
El Niño also raises sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea, affecting moisture transport to the Indian landmass.
The opposite phenomenon, La Niña, correlates with above-normal monsoon rainfall in India.

Connection to this news: IMD's June 2026 forecast explicitly links strengthening El Niño conditions in the Pacific to the projected below-normal (90–95% of LPA) monsoon, with the rainfall deficit concentrated in the August–September window.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — India's Partial Monsoon Shield

The Indian Ocean Dipole is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon characterised by anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) differences between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.

Positive IOD: Western Indian Ocean warmer than eastern Indian Ocean — associated with above-normal monsoon rainfall over India.
Negative IOD: Eastern Indian Ocean warmer — associated with below-normal rainfall, often compounding El Niño's drying effect.
Neutral IOD (current state as of June 2026): No significant SST anomaly; positive IOD development is forecast for later in the season.
Positive IOD can partially counteract El Niño's suppression of the monsoon but cannot fully offset a strong El Niño signal.

Connection to this news: The developing positive IOD is the key mitigating factor in IMD's 2026 forecast. It is expected to buffer some of El Niño's drying impact, particularly later in the season, but the dominant signal remains a below-normal monsoon.

IMD's Long Range Forecast (LRF) and the 197 Vulnerable Districts

The India Meteorological Department issues a Long Range Forecast (LRF) for the southwest monsoon each April (first stage) and May/June (second stage), using the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System and ENSO monitoring.

The LRF uses a combination of statistical and dynamical models, including the IMD-IITM Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System.
197 districts have been identified by the Ministry of Agriculture as most vulnerable to El Niño-induced rainfall deficits, requiring pre-positioned drought-contingency plans.
Contingency measures include stockpiling drought-resistant seed varieties, alternate crop plans, and activating irrigation infrastructure.
The Agriculture Ministry conducts weekly monitoring reviews with state governments during periods of El Niño alert.
Southwest Monsoon (June–September) contributes approximately 75% of India's annual rainfall and is critical for Kharif crop sowing (rice, maize, pulses, oilseeds, cotton).

Connection to this news: IMD's official confirmation of El Niño onset triggers the activation of these pre-identified district-level contingency protocols across 197 high-risk districts, directly linking the meteorological forecast to on-ground agricultural preparedness.

Key Facts & Data

El Niño confirmed onset: June 2026 (IMD and NOAA)
IMD rainfall forecast (2026 SW Monsoon): 90–95% of Long Period Average (below normal)
Critical risk period: August–September 2026 (second half of monsoon season)
Vulnerable districts: 197 (identified by Ministry of Agriculture)
Southwest Monsoon contribution: ~75% of India's annual rainfall
IOD current status: Neutral; positive IOD development forecast for later season
El Niño frequency: Occurs every 2–7 years; ~60% correlation with deficient Indian monsoon
La Niña effect: Opposite of El Niño — generally boosts Indian monsoon rainfall
IMD forecast system: Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS), ENSO monitoring
Kharif crops at risk: Rice, maize, arhar (tur dal), kharif pulses, groundnut, cotton, soybean