What Happened
- Skymet Weather Services has forecast a below-normal southwest monsoon for India in 2026, predicting total seasonal rainfall at 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the June–September period.
- The primary driver of the weaker-than-normal monsoon is the anticipated return and strengthening of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- El Niño is expected to develop early in the monsoon season and strengthen progressively, with its impact most severe in the second half of the season (August–September).
- Probability distribution: 0% chance of excess rainfall; 10% above normal; 20% normal; 40% below normal; 30% drought conditions.
- Regions likely to be worst affected: Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Central India — key agricultural states.
- Eastern and northeastern India are expected to fare relatively better.
- A below-normal monsoon has direct implications for kharif crop output, reservoir storage, rural incomes, and food price inflation.
Static Topic Bridges
The Southwest Monsoon — Mechanism and Significance
The southwest monsoon (June to September) is the primary source of rainfall for India, accounting for approximately 70–75% of the country's annual precipitation. It is driven by the differential heating of the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, which creates a pressure gradient drawing moisture-laden winds northward from the ocean.
- Onset: Typically arrives at Kerala coast by June 1 (with ±7-day variation), then advances progressively northward and westward across India
- Withdrawal: Begins retreating from northwest India by September 1; complete by mid-October
- Long Period Average (LPA): 868.6 mm over the entire season (1971–2020 baseline) — the benchmark against which rainfall is measured
- Definition of "below normal": Total rainfall between 90–95% of LPA; "drought" is less than 90%
- The monsoon accounts for the bulk of reservoir replenishment, groundwater recharge, and kharif season irrigation across India
- Agriculture contributes ~18% of GDP and employs ~44% of the workforce — making monsoon performance a macro-economic variable
Connection to this news: At 94% of LPA, the forecast places India near the boundary between "below normal" and "normal" categories, but with a 30% probability of drought, the downside risk is significant — particularly for rain-fed agriculture.
El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Monsoon
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by anomalous warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters, occurring roughly every 2–7 years. It is one half of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, the other being La Niña (cooling).
- El Niño typically suppresses the Indian southwest monsoon by weakening the Walker Circulation — the large-scale east-west atmospheric circulation over the Pacific — which reduces moisture transport toward the Indian subcontinent
- Historical correlation: 8 of the 10 worst drought years in India since 1950 have occurred during El Niño years
- However, correlation is not deterministic — the 2015 El Niño (strong) produced below-normal rainfall, while the 2019 El Niño eventually gave way to a surplus monsoon
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A positive IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean) can partially offset El Niño's suppressing effect on the monsoon — a key modulating factor
- IMD (India Meteorological Department) is the official forecaster; Skymet is a private forecasting agency with a track record of competitive accuracy
- ENSO monitoring is done through the NINO3.4 index (sea surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific)
Connection to this news: Skymet's forecast hinges on El Niño developing early and strengthening — if the IOD turns negative simultaneously, the monsoon deficit could be more severe than the 94% headline figure suggests.
Monsoon, Agriculture, and Food Security
India's kharif season (June–November) includes rice, maize, cotton, soyabean, groundnut, and pulses — all critically dependent on monsoon rainfall. A below-normal monsoon affects both output and rural incomes, with second-order effects on food inflation, rural credit demand, and fiscal policy.
- Kharif crop accounts for roughly 50% of India's foodgrain production
- Deficit rainfall in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan hits wheat (rabi) soil moisture reserves and groundwater recharge for the following season
- India has 5,334 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC); monsoon determines their storage levels, affecting hydropower and drinking water supply
- RBI and government typically invoke contingency measures during drought years: food procurement buffers, MGNREGS (rural employment), PDS distribution, and crop insurance (PM Fasal Bima Yojana)
- Skymet's 30% drought probability, if realised, would trigger the National Disaster Management Framework — drought is defined as a calamity under the National Disaster Management Act, 2005
Connection to this news: A below-normal or drought monsoon in 2026 would test India's food management systems, rural distress response mechanisms, and inflation-control policies at a time when the economy is on a growth trajectory.
Key Facts & Data
- Forecast agency: Skymet Weather Services (India's leading private weather forecasting company)
- 2026 monsoon forecast: 94% of Long Period Average (LPA) — classified "below normal"
- LPA (baseline): 868.6 mm (June–September, 1971–2020 reference period)
- Primary cause: El Niño — expected to develop early and strengthen through the season
- Worst-affected regions: Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Central India
- Better-placed regions: East and Northeast India
- Probability of drought: 30%
- Definition thresholds: Normal = 96–104% LPA; Below normal = 90–95% LPA; Drought = below 90% LPA
- El Niño drought correlation: 8 of 10 worst Indian droughts since 1950 occurred in El Niño years
- Monsoon share of annual rainfall: ~70–75%
- India's kharif share of foodgrain output: ~50%
- Official forecaster: India Meteorological Department (IMD) — long-range forecast typically issued in April