What Happened
- International climate models — including data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) — indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to emerge between May and July 2026, potentially developing into a moderate to strong event by the Northern Hemisphere winter.
- An evolving El Niño carries a 60% chance of causing below-normal rainfall over India, heightening the risk of a sub-par southwest monsoon season.
- The most concerning scenario is an evolving (developing) El Niño during the monsoon season itself — this pattern has historically been the most damaging for Indian rainfall distribution.
- Weather forecaster Skymet has assessed a "rising risk of sub-par monsoon and drought" in 2026, a view echoed in the SBI Research report flagging El Niño as one of the key inflation risks for the year.
- The ECMWF model forecast currently indicates a moderate-strength El Niño, but events have historically tended to be stronger than initial model projections.
- A below-normal monsoon would directly affect kharif crop output, food prices, rural incomes, and could push retail inflation higher in Q3–Q4 2026.
Static Topic Bridges
El Niño — Mechanism and the ENSO Cycle
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle — a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon centred on the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, easterly trade winds push warm surface water westward, causing upwelling of cold deep water off the South American coast (La Niña-like conditions). During El Niño, trade winds weaken or reverse, causing warm surface water to spread eastward across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, raising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) above normal by 0.5–2°C or more.
- ENSO index: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — measured as 3-month running average of SST anomaly in Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120–170°W).
- El Niño threshold: ONI ≥ +0.5°C for at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods.
- La Niña (cool phase): ONI ≤ -0.5°C; typically associated with above-normal monsoon in India.
- ENSO cycle frequency: every 2–7 years; duration: typically 9–12 months.
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and NOAA monitor ENSO; ECMWF provides extended seasonal forecasts.
Connection to this news: The ECMWF forecast indicates ocean and atmospheric signals aligning for El Niño development by June 2026 — placing the onset squarely during India's southwest monsoon season (June–September), the most risk-prone timing for Indian agriculture.
El Niño's Impact on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR)
The Indian Summer Monsoon (June–September) provides approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall and is the primary water source for kharif agriculture, groundwater recharge, and river flow. Historical analysis of monsoon–ENSO relationships shows that El Niño events suppress the Walker Circulation (the large-scale atmospheric circulation that drives monsoon moisture), resulting in weaker onshore winds and reduced rainfall over peninsular India and the Indo-Gangetic Plains.
- Six of India's major droughts since 1871 have been associated with El Niño years, including 2002 and 2009.
- An evolving (developing) El Niño during the monsoon has a 60% probability of below-normal rainfall.
- A fully established El Niño by monsoon onset is less damaging than one developing mid-monsoon.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): a positive IOD event can partially offset El Niño's suppressive effect on the monsoon — a mitigating factor to monitor.
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) typically issues its first long-range forecast in April and an updated forecast in May.
Connection to this news: The specific concern raised by models is an evolving El Niño — meaning it develops strength during June–September — which historically produces the worst outcomes for ISMR. This is more damaging than a pre-existing El Niño at monsoon onset.
Agricultural and Food Security Implications of Below-Normal Monsoon
India's kharif season (June–November) is heavily monsoon-dependent, covering major crops including rice, maize, pulses, cotton, oilseeds, and sugarcane. A below-normal monsoon reduces kharif crop output, which then cascades into: higher food prices (particularly vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds), increased MSP procurement pressure, rural income stress, and potential GDP deceleration. The government's crisis response toolkit includes MSP hikes, PDS buffer stock releases, export bans on key commodities, and emergency import facilitation.
- Kharif foodgrain production (FY 2024–25): approximately 164.7 million tonnes.
- Crops most vulnerable to rainfall deficit: pulses (75% rainfed), oilseeds (70% rainfed), coarse cereals.
- A 10% deficit in ISMR is typically associated with kharif output decline of 4–8%.
- Food inflation in India has historically spiked 2–3 quarters after a poor monsoon (due to supply lag).
- SBI Research identified El Niño as a key upside risk to inflation in 2026 — relevant for RBI's monetary policy.
Connection to this news: February 2026 CPI already showed food inflation edging up to 3.47%. A below-normal kharif harvest in 2026 could push food inflation significantly higher in Q3–Q4, potentially testing RBI's 4% target and complicating monetary policy decisions.
Government Preparedness and Climate Adaptation for Drought Years
India's institutional response to drought draws on the National Disaster Management Act, 2005, the National Crisis Management Committee, and state-level drought manuals. The National Food Security Act, 2013 (NFSA) mandates grain distribution to approximately 80 crore beneficiaries through the Public Distribution System (PDS), providing a statutory buffer against food insecurity during monsoon failures. The PM-AASHA (PM Annadata Aay Sanrakshan Abhiyan) framework and MSP mechanism are the primary price support tools.
- India's buffer stock of foodgrains (rice + wheat): maintained by FCI; typically 40–60 million tonnes.
- National Food Security Act, 2013: covers 75% rural + 50% urban population; approximately 81.4 crore beneficiaries.
- Drought classification: based on rainfall deviation (moderate: 26–50% deficit; severe: >50% deficit) and crop-sowing area.
- NDRF (National Disaster Response Fund) and SDRF (State Disaster Response Fund) provide emergency financial support.
- PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana): crop insurance scheme — provides income support to affected farmers.
Connection to this news: India's institutional capacity to manage drought is more robust than in past El Niño episodes (2002, 2009), given large foodgrain buffer stocks and the NFSA framework. However, the inflation channel (food price transmission to CPI) and rural income channel remain significant economic risks if the 2026 monsoon is substantially below normal.
Key Facts & Data
- El Niño onset projection: May–July 2026 (ECMWF and other international models)
- El Niño intensity: currently projected moderate; historically tends to exceed initial forecasts
- Probability of below-normal monsoon under evolving El Niño: 60%
- Major El Niño-associated droughts in India: 2002, 2009 (and multiple episodes since 1871)
- India's annual rainfall from southwest monsoon: approximately 70% of total
- Kharif foodgrain production (FY 2024–25): approximately 164.7 million tonnes
- ENSO cycle recurrence: every 2–7 years
- El Niño threshold (ONI): ≥ +0.5°C for 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods
- IMD first long-range monsoon forecast: issued in April; updated May
- India's foodgrain buffer stock: typically 40–60 million tonnes (FCI-managed)
- NFSA beneficiaries: approximately 81.4 crore (75% rural + 50% urban population)
- India Meteorological Department: nodal agency for monsoon forecasting in India