What Happened
- February 2026 recorded the lowest rainfall in northwest India in five years, with an 81% rainfall shortfall — one of the worst deficits in six decades for the month.
- Northwest India recorded an 86.8% rainfall deficit in February alone, and 12% deficit in January, with Himachal Pradesh recording a staggering 86% deficit in February.
- The cause: while the number of western disturbances (WDs) passing over India in the December-February period was the highest in five years, their intensity was unusually low — meaning more but weaker systems, resulting in negligible precipitation.
- IMD warned that both maximum and minimum temperatures over most of India were above normal in February, increasing the risk to standing rabi crops.
- Rabi crops — particularly wheat and barley — face reduced soil moisture conditions, with farmers worried that continued dryness in March could lower production levels and increase irrigation costs.
Static Topic Bridges
Western Disturbances: Origin, Pathway, and Mechanism
Western disturbances (WDs) are extratropical cyclonic storms that originate over the Mediterranean Sea — and to a lesser extent the Caspian and Black Seas — during winter months. They are driven eastward by the subtropical westerly jet stream, picking up moisture over Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan before crossing into the Indian subcontinent. They enter India primarily through Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, releasing precipitation — rain in plains, snow in hills — as they interact with the Himalayas.
- Origin: Mediterranean Sea (eastern Mediterranean most frequently) — not the Atlantic Ocean, unlike extratropical systems affecting Europe
- Driver: subtropical westerly jet stream (located at 25°-35°N latitude in winter) carries WDs across Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan into India
- Entry points: J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand — triggering snowfall in hills and winter rainfall in plains
- Season: November to April; frequency peaks in January-February
- Precipitation type: snow at altitudes above 2,000 m; rain in Punjab, Haryana, western UP, Rajasthan plains
- 2025-26 winter anomaly: high frequency of WDs but low intensity — more systems crossed but each carried less moisture and energy, resulting in a historic precipitation deficit
Connection to this news: Understanding WD mechanics is essential to understanding why February 2026's deficit occurred — the paradox of high WD frequency but low rainfall is explained by the reduced intensity and moisture content of individual systems, likely linked to shifts in Mediterranean sea surface temperatures and the jet stream's position.
Impact on Rabi Crops and Food Security
Rabi crops (sown in October-November, harvested in March-April) are heavily dependent on winter rainfall in northwest India, particularly on soil moisture retained from WD-driven precipitation. Wheat — India's second most important staple after rice — is the primary rabi crop, cultivated predominantly in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Insufficient winter rain forces farmers to rely more on irrigation (groundwater), increasing costs and depleting already-stressed aquifers in the Indo-Gangetic Plain.
- Key rabi crops: wheat, barley, mustard (rapeseed), chickpea (gram), lentil (masoor) — all critically dependent on winter moisture
- Wheat production target 2025-26: ~115 million tonnes (India is world's second-largest producer and largest consumer)
- Winter rain contribution: WD-driven rainfall provides moisture that reduces irrigation demand in the crop's critical growth stages (tillering, flag leaf, grain filling)
- Impact of deficit: each major rabi-season rainfall shortfall correlates with 2-5% decline in wheat yields at the national level
- IMD Rabi crop warning (February 2026): above-normal temperatures + below-average rainfall = dual stress for standing crops
- Groundwater depletion: Punjab and Haryana are already over-exploiting aquifers; reduced WD rainfall accelerates depletion
Connection to this news: A February deficit of 81-86% across northwest India — the heartland of India's wheat belt — directly threatens rabi output, food inflation, and groundwater sustainability, making this a food security concern beyond a meteorological event.
Climate Change, Shifting Jet Stream, and Long-Term WD Patterns
Scientific evidence indicates that WD intensity and moisture content are being modified by climate change. Rising temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea (the source of WD moisture) and the Arctic are affecting the positioning and strength of the westerly jet stream — the atmospheric highway that carries WDs to India. A weakened or northward-shifted jet stream produces weaker, drier WDs, while also contributing to warmer winters over northwestern India.
- Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) rising: warmer source region alters moisture uptake by WDs
- Arctic amplification: disproportionate warming of the Arctic weakens the polar vortex and alters mid-latitude jet stream behaviour
- IMD projection: winters in northwest India are becoming drier even as summer monsoon intensity increases — a bifurcation of India's seasonal precipitation patterns
- Downstream effects: reduced Himalayan snowpack (from lower WD snowfall) affects spring/summer river flows in the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra — with implications for irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water
- La Nina 2024-25: La Nina conditions (cooler equatorial Pacific) generally associated with stronger Indian monsoon but can suppress mid-latitude circulation patterns including WDs in some models
Connection to this news: The 2026 February deficit is not an isolated event — it is a symptom of a long-term drying trend in northwest India's winter precipitation driven by climate-change-induced modifications to both the Mediterranean moisture source and the westerly jet stream.
Key Facts & Data
- February 2026 rainfall deficit: 81% (overall northwest India); 86.8% in specific northwest subdivisions
- Himachal Pradesh: 86% deficit in February 2026
- Context: one of the worst February rainfall deficits in six decades; lowest in five-year running comparison
- WD paradox: highest frequency of WDs in five years, but lowest intensity — producing negligible precipitation
- IMD warning: above-normal temperatures + below-average rainfall = dual rabi crop stress
- Key rabi crops at risk: wheat, barley, mustard, chickpea
- India wheat production target 2025-26: ~115 million tonnes; Punjab + Haryana + UP = ~85% of national output
- Western disturbances: extratropical cyclones originating over Mediterranean Sea; driven by westerly jet stream
- Entry into India: J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand — rain in plains states (Punjab, Haryana, western UP, Rajasthan)
- Climate change driver: rising Mediterranean SST + Arctic amplification → weaker, drier WDs → drier Indian winters