What Happened
- Scientists from the UK and South Korea reached the most inaccessible part of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica in early February 2026 to drill one kilometre deep into the ice and deploy real-time monitoring instruments beneath the glacier.
- The drilling mission aims to directly observe how warm ocean water is melting the glacier from below at its grounding line, a process that has accelerated ice loss in recent decades.
- Thwaites Glacier currently contributes about 4% of global sea-level rise, losing approximately 50 billion tonnes of ice more than it receives as snowfall each year.
- Scientists have also proposed an experimental 50-mile, 500-foot-tall underwater curtain wall (estimated cost USD 80 million) to block warm Circumpolar Deep Water from reaching the glacier's underside.
- The Thwaites Ice Shelf, which braces the eastern portion of the glacier, is projected to collapse within this decade, potentially accelerating ice discharge into the ocean.
Static Topic Bridges
Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI)
Marine Ice Sheet Instability is a self-reinforcing mechanism that drives the irreversible retreat of glaciers grounded on bedrock below sea level. When warm ocean water melts the underside of a glacier at its grounding line (the point where the glacier transitions from resting on bedrock to floating on the ocean), the grounding line retreats inland. If the bedrock slopes downward inland, the retreating grounding line encounters thicker ice, which increases ice discharge into the ocean, causing further retreat in a runaway feedback loop.
- Thwaites Glacier's bed lies up to 800-1,200 metres below sea level, with a reverse-sloping (inland-deepening) bed geometry that makes it highly vulnerable to MISI.
- Modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW), which is 2-3 degrees Celsius warmer than freezing, has increasingly intruded onto the continental shelf in the Amundsen Sea, driving basal melting.
- A related concept, Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), posits that exposed ice cliffs taller than about 100 metres may collapse under their own weight, though IPCC AR6 notes this process remains deeply uncertain.
- The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) as a whole, if it collapsed entirely, would raise global sea levels by approximately 3.3 metres over centuries to millennia.
Connection to this news: The 2026 drilling mission is designed to obtain the first direct measurements of warm water circulation and melt rates beneath the most vulnerable part of Thwaites, which will help determine whether MISI is already irreversibly underway at this glacier.
IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report (2021) provides the most comprehensive projections for global sea-level rise by 2100. The report uses Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to model different emissions trajectories and their consequences for ice sheets, thermal expansion, and glacial melt.
- Under SSP1-2.6 (low emissions), global mean sea level is projected to rise 0.28-0.55 m by 2100; under SSP5-8.5 (high emissions), 0.63-1.01 m.
- The Antarctic Ice Sheet's likely contribution ranges from 0.03-0.27 m (SSP1-2.6) to 0.03-0.34 m (SSP5-8.5), but could reach 0.56 m under SSP5-8.5 if uncertain ice-cliff processes are included.
- For every centimetre of sea-level rise, approximately 6 million people globally are exposed to additional coastal flooding risk.
- Thwaites Glacier alone holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 65 cm (25.5 inches) if it melts entirely.
Connection to this news: The real-time data from the 2026 drilling mission will help constrain the highly uncertain Antarctic contribution in future IPCC projections, particularly whether the low-confidence ice-cliff instability scenarios should be given greater weight.
Antarctic Treaty System and India's Antarctic Programme
The Antarctic Treaty, signed on 1 December 1959 and entering into force in 1961, established Antarctica as a zone dedicated to peace and science. The 1991 Madrid Protocol on Environmental Protection designated Antarctica as a "natural reserve" and banned mineral resource activities.
- The Antarctic Treaty has 56 parties; 29 have Consultative (voting) status, including India, which acceded on 19 August 1983 and received Consultative status on 12 September 1983.
- India operates two active research stations: Maitri (established 1989, Schirmacher Oasis) and Bharati (commissioned 2012, Larsemann Hills). The first station, Dakshin Gangotri (1983), was decommissioned in 1990 after being buried under ice.
- India's 46th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM) was hosted in Kochi in 2024, where India facilitated the first-ever focused discussions on Antarctic tourism.
- The Indian Antarctic Act, 2022, provides a domestic legal framework for India's activities in Antarctica, including environmental protection provisions.
Connection to this news: International scientific collaboration under the Antarctic Treaty framework enables missions like the 2026 Thwaites drilling expedition, and India's growing Antarctic research programme could contribute to glaciological studies relevant to understanding ice-sheet dynamics.
Key Facts & Data
- Thwaites Glacier is the widest glacier on Earth at approximately 120 km (80 miles) wide, with a basin area of 192,000 sq km (larger than England, Wales, and Northern Ireland combined).
- Annual net ice loss from Thwaites: approximately 50 billion tonnes per year.
- Thwaites contributes about 4% of all current global sea-level rise.
- Complete melting of Thwaites would raise global sea levels by 65 cm.
- Complete collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would raise sea levels by approximately 3.3 metres.
- Ice loss from Thwaites and neighbouring glaciers has doubled over the past 30 years.
- The Thwaites Ice Shelf is projected to collapse within a decade (from 2021 estimate).
- The 2026 drilling mission will bore 1 km through the ice to deploy instruments at the glacier's grounding line.
- IPCC AR6 projects global mean sea-level rise of 0.28-1.01 m by 2100 depending on emissions scenario.