Global temperatures to reach near-record highs in next five years, report finds
Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, acco...
What Happened
- Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, according to a new climate outlook produced by the UK's Met Office for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and published on May 28, 2026.
- There is a 91% probability that the global mean temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030 — the threshold set as the aspirational limit under the Paris Agreement.
- There is an 86% chance that at least one year in 2026–2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record globally.
- An El Niño event is forecast for late 2026, which significantly raises the probability that 2027 will become a new record-breaking year for global heat.
- Arctic temperatures over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters (November–March) are predicted to be 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average, with further sea ice reduction expected in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
Static Topic Bridges
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The World Meteorological Organization is a specialised agency of the United Nations, established in 1950 as the successor to the International Meteorological Organization (founded 1873). WMO coordinates global atmospheric, climatic, hydrological, and related environmental data sharing among its 193 member states. It publishes authoritative annual and decadal climate bulletins including the State of the Global Climate report and the near-term climate prediction outlook. The WMO also co-established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with UNEP in 1988.
- Founded: 1950; UN specialised agency since 1951
- Headquarters: Geneva, Switzerland
- Members: 193 states and territories
- Co-established IPCC with UNEP: 1988
- The 2026 near-term prediction synthesises data from 13 institutes worldwide, led by the UK Met Office
Connection to this news: The WMO report providing the temperature forecasts is a direct product of the organisation's mandate for authoritative multi-model climate prediction, making it a primary source for IPCC and UNFCCC policy discussions.
Paris Agreement and the 1.5°C Threshold
The Paris Agreement was adopted at COP21 in Paris on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. Article 2(1)(a) sets the central temperature goal: holding global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. India ratified the Agreement on 2 October 2016. Crucially, the WMO has clarified that a temporary breach of 1.5°C in any single year does not constitute a permanent breach of the Paris target, which refers to long-term average warming over approximately two decades as assessed by the IPCC.
- Adopted: 12 December 2015, Paris (COP21); entered into force: 4 November 2016
- Temperature target: well below 2°C; efforts toward 1.5°C (Article 2)
- India's ratification: 2 October 2016
- 75% probability that the 5-year average 2026–2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
- Single-year breach ≠ permanent Paris Agreement breach (long-term metric applies)
Connection to this news: The WMO report quantifies the 91% probability of a temporary annual 1.5°C breach between 2026 and 2030, placing the Paris Agreement's aspirational ceiling under immediate empirical scrutiny and intensifying pressure on NDC ambition ahead of the next Global Stocktake.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the primary mode of interannual climate variability on Earth. During an El Niño phase, anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific suppress the Walker Circulation, redistribute precipitation globally, and typically push global average temperatures 0.1–0.2°C above the underlying trend in the year following onset. La Niña does the opposite. ENSO events are monitored by the WMO, NOAA, and India's IMD using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). India's southwest monsoon is particularly sensitive to ENSO: El Niño years correlate with below-normal monsoon rainfall (~70% of El Niño years show deficient monsoon).
- El Niño threshold: ONI ≥ +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods
- El Niño 2023–24 was one of the strongest on record, contributing to 2024 being the hottest year globally
- El Niño forecast for late 2026 increases probability of 2027 setting a new global heat record
- ENSO is a key driver of Indian monsoon variability; deficient monsoon risk rises during El Niño
- Arctic amplification is a separate phenomenon: Arctic warms 2–4x faster than the global average
Connection to this news: The forecast El Niño for late 2026 is the proximate driver for the 86% probability of a new global temperature record by 2027, and carries direct implications for India's agricultural sector and water security through monsoon disruption.
Key Facts & Data
- Projected global temperature range 2026–2030: 1.3°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial (1850–1900) average
- Probability of temporary 1.5°C annual breach (2026–2030): 91%
- Probability of 5-year average exceeding 1.5°C: 75%
- Probability of a new warmest year on record (surpassing 2024): 86%
- Arctic winter temperature anomaly forecast: +2.8°C above 1991–2020 average
- Sea ice reduction: Barents Sea, Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk
- El Niño predicted: late 2026; most likely record year: 2027
- Report produced by: UK Met Office for WMO; synthesises 13 global institutes
- WMO founded: 1950; IPCC co-established: 1988
- Paris Agreement Article 2: well below 2°C; efforts toward 1.5°C
- India ratified Paris Agreement: 2 October 2016