Global temperatures likely to remain near record high levels until 2030, says WMO report

What Happened

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a near-term climate outlook on May 28, 2026, projecting that global temperatures will continue at or near record levels through 2026–2030, with annual averages predicted between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.
• There is a 75% probability that the five-year average global temperature for 2026–2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the aspirational limit of the Paris Agreement (Article 2).
• There is a 91% chance that the global mean temperature will temporarily breach 1.5°C in at least one year between 2026 and 2030, and an 86% chance that one of these years will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
• An El Niño event is predicted for late 2026, increasing the likelihood of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year; the five-year outlook shows a stronger tendency toward El Niño conditions in 2027–2028 in the central tropical Pacific.
• The WMO clarified that temporary annual breaches of 1.5°C do not constitute a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement target, which is measured as a long-term average over approximately two decades.

Static Topic Bridges

Paris Agreement — Article 2 and the 1.5°C Goal

The Paris Agreement, adopted at COP21 on 12 December 2015, entered into force on 4 November 2016. Article 2(1)(a) defines the long-term temperature goal as "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C." Pre-industrial baseline is defined as 1850–1900. The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5, 2018) documented the substantially greater risks at 2°C versus 1.5°C — including more intense heat waves, sea level rise, coral reef loss, and disruption to agricultural systems. India ratified the Agreement on 2 October 2016 and submitted an Updated First NDC in August 2022 strengthening its 2030 targets.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Its Global Impacts

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, driven by anomalous warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO is monitored using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — El Niño is declared when ONI ≥ +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. During El Niño years, global average temperatures typically rise 0.1–0.2°C above the background trend, precipitating record-breaking years. The 2023–24 El Niño event was among the strongest on record and was a primary driver of 2024 becoming the hottest year globally. For India, El Niño correlates with weakened southwest monsoon, drought risk, and reduced Kharif crop yields in ~70% of events.

Global Stocktake and UNFCCC Process

The Paris Agreement established a five-year cycle of Global Stocktakes (GST) under Article 14 to assess collective progress toward the Agreement's goals. The first GST concluded at COP28 (Dubai, December 2023), producing a decision calling on parties to transition away from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. The second GST will conclude at COP30 (Belém, Brazil, November 2025). Updated NDCs covering 2035 targets were due from all parties by February 2025. The WMO's near-term temperature outlooks feed directly into the scientific evidence base for these negotiating rounds.

Key Facts & Data

• WMO temperature forecast 2026–2030: 1.3°C–1.9°C above pre-industrial average (1850–1900 baseline)
• Probability of at least one year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C (2026–2030): 91%
• Probability of 5-year average 2026–2030 exceeding 1.5°C: 75%
• Probability of surpassing 2024 as warmest year on record: 86%
• El Niño forecast: late 2026; most likely record year if El Niño materialises: 2027
• Stronger El Niño tendency: 2027–2028 central tropical Pacific
• Arctic winter (Nov–Mar) anomaly forecast: +2.8°C above 1991–2020 average
• Sea ice reduction areas: Barents Sea, Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk
• Report compiled by: UK Met Office for WMO; synthesises 13 global modelling institutes
• Paris Agreement temperature goal (Article 2): well below 2°C; pursuing 1.5°C above pre-industrial
• India ratified Paris Agreement: 2 October 2016
• WMO founded: 1950; co-established IPCC (with UNEP): 1988