61% chance of El Nino emerging before July, says US’ Climate Prediction Center

The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC), operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), forecast a 61% probability of El Niño conditi...

What Happened

The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC), operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), forecast a 61% probability of El Niño conditions emerging in the May–July 2026 window, with the probability rising to over 70% for July–September and ~80% for August–October 2026.
ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed as of the forecast date, but sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are rising rapidly, indicating the early signatures of El Niño development.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) independently noted that the likelihood of El Niño emerging had increased, consistent with the CPC forecast.
India's India Meteorological Department (IMD) projected the 2026 South-West Monsoon to be below normal or deficient, attributing the likely shortfall in significant part to emerging El Niño conditions.
IMD forecasts 2026 monsoon rainfall at approximately 800 mm, which would represent a significant deficit given that the Long Period Average (LPA) for the South-West Monsoon is 87 cm (870 mm) over a 50-year baseline.
An emerging positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and below-normal snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere could partially offset El Niño's suppressive effect on the Indian monsoon, but the net outlook is below-normal rainfall.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño and ENSO: Mechanism and Global Impact

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, unusually warm sea-surface temperatures develop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, altering the Walker Circulation — the large-scale east-west atmospheric circulation that drives tropical weather patterns globally.

Walker Circulation disruption: During El Niño, the normally westward trade winds weaken or reverse. Warm water pools shift eastward toward the South American coast, suppressing convection (rising air and rainfall) over the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean region.
Frequency and intensity: El Niño events occur every 2–7 years and vary from weak to "super El Niño" in strength. The 2015–16 El Niño was among the strongest on record.
Global impacts: El Niño causes drought in Australia, India, and parts of Africa; floods in South America (Peru, Ecuador); reduced Atlantic hurricane activity; and warmer global average temperatures.
ENSO phases: El Niño (warm phase) ↔ ENSO-neutral ↔ La Niña (cool phase). La Niña generally favours above-normal monsoon rainfall in India.
Monitoring: The Niño 3.4 index (average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific, 5°N–5°S, 120°W–170°W) is the primary metric; an El Niño is officially declared when this index exceeds +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.

Connection to this news: The CPC's 61% probability is based on rising Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures; if El Niño establishes by June-July, the South-West Monsoon — which peaks in July-August — would be directly suppressed.

El Niño and the Indian Monsoon: Historical Pattern

India's South-West Monsoon (June–September) accounts for approximately 70–75% of India's annual rainfall and is critical to the kharif agricultural season. The statistical relationship between El Niño and Indian monsoon deficit is well-documented: El Niño has disrupted Indian monsoon rainfall in roughly 8 out of 10 occurrences, though the relationship is not deterministic.

The mechanism: El Niño-associated anomalous subsidence (sinking air) over the Indian landmass suppresses the monsoon circulation, reducing moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Historical deficit years associated with El Niño include: 1972, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009, 2014, 2015 — though 1997 (strong El Niño) produced a near-normal monsoon, illustrating non-linearity.
Kharif crops at risk: rice, maize, pearl millet, groundnut, soybean — particularly in rain-fed regions of northwest India, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana.
About 60% of India's net sown area is rain-fed; a monsoon deficit immediately translates into reduced kharif output, higher food prices, and rural distress.

Connection to this news: IMD's 2026 forecast of approximately 800 mm (vs. LPA of 870 mm) — a deficit of ~8% — is consistent with a moderate El Niño effect; if conditions intensify toward "super El Niño," the deficit could deepen further.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): India's Partial Shield

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sometimes called the "Indian Niño," is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the equatorial Indian Ocean. During a positive IOD, the western Indian Ocean (near the Arabian Sea) is warmer than normal while the eastern Indian Ocean (near Sumatra) is cooler. Positive IOD strengthens moisture flux into India and generally supports above-normal monsoon rainfall, partially counteracting El Niño.

IOD phases: Positive IOD (favourable for Indian monsoon) ↔ Neutral ↔ Negative IOD (unfavourable, amplifies El Niño's negative effect).
The co-occurrence of El Niño with a negative IOD is the worst combination for India's monsoon (e.g., 2002 drought).
The co-occurrence of El Niño with a positive IOD can moderate the monsoon deficit (e.g., 1997).
IMD monitors IOD through the Dipole Mode Index (DMI); WMO and NOAA provide seasonal IOD outlooks.

Connection to this news: Meteorological officials cited the possibility of emerging positive IOD conditions in 2026 as a mitigating factor — but if IOD remains neutral or turns negative, El Niño's impact on the Indian monsoon would be amplified.

Food Security and Monsoon Dependence

India's food security architecture rests heavily on the South-West Monsoon. The National Food Security Act (2013) commits the government to subsidised grain for up to 67% of the population under the Public Distribution System (PDS). A significant monsoon deficit creates pressure through multiple channels simultaneously.

Kharif season (June–November) produces rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and sugarcane — together accounting for nearly half of India's food grain output.
A 10% monsoon deficit is estimated to reduce kharif food grain output by 8–12 million tonnes in a typical year.
The Government holds strategic food reserves (buffer stocks) in the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to cushion supply shocks; releases and Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) are triggered during deficit years.
Inflation in food prices (particularly pulses and vegetables) is closely correlated with monsoon outcomes — impacting both rural income and urban household budgets.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) coordinates drought declaration and relief under the Disaster Management Act, 2005; the Revenue and Disaster Management Ministry of each state implements relief.

Connection to this news: If the 2026 monsoon runs 8–10% below LPA due to El Niño, the Government may need to deploy buffer stocks, accelerate imports, and activate drought relief mechanisms — making this forecast a direct economic and governance concern.

Key Facts & Data

US Climate Prediction Center forecast: 61% probability of El Niño by May–July 2026; rising to 70%+ by July–September and ~80% by August–October 2026.
IMD 2026 monsoon forecast: approximately 800 mm vs. Long Period Average of 870 mm (~8% deficit).
El Niño has disrupted Indian monsoon in roughly 8 out of 10 occurrences historically.
India's South-West Monsoon accounts for 70–75% of annual rainfall (June–September).
Approximately 60% of India's net sown area is rain-fed and directly monsoon-dependent.
El Niño declared when Niño 3.4 index exceeds +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
Positive IOD can partially offset El Niño's suppressive effect on the Indian monsoon.
National Food Security Act (2013): subsidised grain for up to 67% of India's population under PDS.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is the authoritative US government body for ENSO monitoring and forecasting.
WMO: World Meteorological Organization — the UN specialised agency for meteorology and climatology.