Warming waters, falling yields: Climate change and the future of India’s shrimp industry

Emerging assessments of India's shrimp aquaculture sector indicate that climate change is shifting the primary measure of industry sustainability from output...

What Happened

Emerging assessments of India's shrimp aquaculture sector indicate that climate change is shifting the primary measure of industry sustainability from output volume to resilience under thermal and hydrological stress.
Rising sea surface temperatures, erratic monsoon patterns, salinity fluctuations, and increased frequency of extreme weather events are documented as compounding threats to Litopenaeus vannamei (Pacific white shrimp) production — the dominant farmed species in India.
The industry, concentrated in Andhra Pradesh (contributing approximately 80% of national shrimp production), is increasingly exposed to heat stress, disease outbreaks triggered by temperature anomalies, and infrastructure losses from cyclones.
Policy responses are being evaluated under the Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY) and the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA) framework, with adaptation strategies including cluster farming, insurance coverage, and species diversification.

Static Topic Bridges

India's Shrimp Aquaculture Sector — Overview

India is one of the world's largest shrimp producers and the leading exporter of frozen shrimp globally.

Production reached approximately 0.74 million tonnes in 2024, representing around 6% of global shrimp output.
Shrimp exports in FY 2023–24: approximately 0.72 million metric tonnes valued at USD 4.88 billion, constituting 40% of India's marine export volume and 66% of marine export value.
Litopenaeus vannamei (Pacific white leg shrimp) constitutes 92.7% of total shrimp exports; it was introduced to India in 2009 after a regulatory shift from the Coastal Aquaculture Authority (CAA).
State-wise production (MPEDA 2023–24): Andhra Pradesh 80.14%, West Bengal 6.06%, Gujarat 5.39%, Odisha 4.20%, Tamil Nadu 3.41%.
The Indian shrimp market was estimated at USD 9.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 10% through 2033.

Connection to this news: The concentrated geography of production in Andhra Pradesh and coastal Odisha makes the sector disproportionately exposed to climate-driven coastal hazards.

Climate Change Impacts on Marine Aquaculture

Climate change affects aquaculture through multiple pathways — thermal stress, acidification, extreme weather, and altered freshwater availability.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) rise affects shrimp physiology directly: L. vannamei performs optimally between 23–30°C; temperatures above 33°C induce stress, immune suppression, and mass mortality.
Ocean acidification (declining pH due to CO₂ absorption) disrupts calcification in crustaceans and affects the viability of larvae.
Altered monsoon patterns affect salinity in brackish water ponds — the primary production environment for farmed shrimp in India.
Cyclones and storm surges (more frequent and intense with warming) damage pond infrastructure, bund integrity, and coastal aquaculture clusters.
Temperature-associated disease outbreaks — particularly White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV) and Acute Hepatopancreatic Necrosis Disease (AHPND) — pose recurring threats.

Connection to this news: The shift from volume-centric to stability-centric assessment of the industry reflects the recognition that year-on-year production variability — driven by climate events — is becoming a more significant risk than long-run production capacity.

Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA)

MPEDA is a statutory body established under the Marine Products Export Development Authority Act, 1972, under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

MPEDA regulates and promotes the export of marine products; it maintains production, trade, and quality standards in coordination with the Export Inspection Council.
It operates the Shrimp Health Management Programme and coordinates with state fisheries departments on disease surveillance and certification.
MPEDA's data collection (state-wise production, species-wise exports, price trends) is the primary authoritative source for India's shrimp sector statistics.
The authority facilitates traceability certification required by importing countries (EU, USA) for antibiotic residue compliance.

Connection to this news: MPEDA's certification and monitoring infrastructure is also the mechanism through which climate adaptation standards — such as permissible stocking densities and water management protocols — would be enforced at the farm level.

Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY)

PMMSY is the flagship scheme for fisheries sector development in India, launched in September 2020 under the Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying.

Total approved outlay: ₹20,050 crore for FY 2021–25; total projects approved under the scheme exceeded ₹21,274 crore as of July 2025.
PMMSY follows an "umbrella scheme" structure with two sub-schemes: Central Sector (100% Central funding) and Centrally Sponsored (shared funding).
Key interventions include: new and upgraded fishing vessels, fishing harbour development, aquaculture infrastructure (brackishwater, cold chain), nucleus breeding centres, aqua parks, and digital traceability.
The scheme includes a specific climate adaptation component: promoting eco-friendly aquaculture, resilient infrastructure, and sustainable fishing practices aligned with India's NDC commitments.
The Bhimavaram Brackishwater Aquaculture Cluster in Andhra Pradesh is one flagship PMMSY project.

Connection to this news: PMMSY is the primary fiscal instrument through which climate-resilient shrimp farming infrastructure — including flood-proofed ponds, aeration systems, and insurance coverage — is being promoted.

Blue Economy Policy Framework

India's Blue Economy refers to the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods, and ocean ecosystem health.

India's Blue Economy Policy (draft, 2021) identifies fisheries and aquaculture as a core sector alongside maritime trade, coastal tourism, deep sea mining, and offshore energy.
The policy envisions doubling fisheries exports to USD 14 billion by 2025 (a target under review given climate headwinds).
Deep Sea Mission (under PMMSY and DST) includes biodiversity assessment and bio-resource surveys relevant to future mariculture expansion.
Climate-smart aquaculture — integrating mangrove restoration, integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA), and precision feeding — is positioned as the long-term adaptation pathway.

Connection to this news: The shrimp sector's climate vulnerability sits squarely within the Blue Economy's sustainability agenda; the shift toward stability metrics signals a policy recalibration aligned with climate risk.

Key Facts & Data

India's shrimp production: ~0.74 million tonnes (2024), ~6% of global output
Marine export value (FY 2023–24): USD 7.38 billion; frozen shrimp: largest category
Shrimp export volume: ~0.72 million MT (FY 2023–24), valued at USD 4.88 billion
Dominant species: Litopenaeus vannamei — 92.7% of shrimp exports
Andhra Pradesh share of national shrimp production: ~80%
PMMSY outlay: ₹20,050 crore (FY 2021–25)
Optimal temperature range for L. vannamei: 23–30°C; stress onset above ~33°C
MPEDA established under Marine Products Export Development Authority Act, 1972
Coastal Aquaculture Authority (CAA) regulates farm registration and species approvals
India shrimp market size: USD 9.2 billion (2024); projected CAGR ~10% through 2033