Fossil fuel generation in India, China falls for first time this century: Report

Fossil fuel-based electricity generation declined simultaneously in both India and China in 2025 — for the first time this century — driven by record growth ...

What Happened

Fossil fuel-based electricity generation declined simultaneously in both India and China in 2025 — for the first time this century — driven by record growth in solar, wind, and hydropower, according to Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026.
India's coal-based electricity generation fell approximately 3% (57 TWh) year-on-year in 2025 — only the second full-year decline in at least half a century, with coal output falling from around 1,322 billion units (BU) in 2024 to approximately 1,283 BU in 2025.
China's fossil fuel output fell by 56 TWh in 2025, driven by exceptional clean energy build-out; China accounted for more than half the global increase in both solar capacity and solar generation during the year.
The combined decline in fossil generation in the two countries — which together account for the majority of global electricity consumption — was identified by Ember as a historic turning point in the global power sector.
Clean electricity globally met all of the net new growth in electricity demand, preventing any net increase in fossil fuel generation worldwide.
Renewable energy sources collectively reached a 34% share of global electricity generation in 2025, surpassing coal's 33% for the first time in approximately a century.

Static Topic Bridges

India's Coal Dependence and Energy Transition Challenges

Coal has historically dominated India's electricity generation mix, given abundant domestic reserves (India holds the fourth-largest proven coal reserves globally) and the legacy of Coal India Limited's near-monopoly on extraction. As of 2025, coal still accounted for approximately 70% of India's total electricity generation despite the absolute decline in coal output — underscoring that the transition, while underway, is far from complete.

Coal India Limited (CIL), under the Ministry of Coal, is the world's largest coal-producing company by volume and supplies approximately 80% of India's thermal coal requirements.
India's installed thermal (coal + gas + oil) capacity remains the backbone of baseload power, providing grid stability that intermittent renewables cannot yet fully substitute.
The 2025 coal generation decline was driven by a combination of factors: milder temperatures reducing air-conditioning demand (saving ~41 TWh), faster clean energy deployment, and improved hydropower output (up ~15%).
India's electricity demand growth itself slowed in 2025 relative to prior years, giving clean energy additions time to gain share without requiring additional fossil backup.

Connection to this news: India's historic 3% decline in coal generation represents both a genuine energy transition milestone and a reminder that coal's structural dominance persists; the just transition challenge — managing the economic and social impacts on coal-dependent communities — remains a central policy issue.

Just Transition: Concept and India's Context

The concept of "just transition" refers to the need to ensure that the shift away from fossil fuels is equitable — protecting the livelihoods of workers and communities dependent on coal mining, thermal power plants, and allied industries. India has approximately 500,000 formal coal mining workers and millions more in informal and ancillary sectors.

India's coal mining belt is concentrated in states including Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh — many of which have significant tribal populations and low per-capita income.
India has not adopted a formal national just transition policy, though the Ministry of Coal has set up committees to assess the socio-economic impact of coal decline scenarios.
At COP27 (Sharm el-Sheikh, 2022), India resisted language calling for a "phase-out" of coal, insisting instead on "phase-down" of all fossil fuels, reflecting the complexity of rapid coal exit.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) defines just transition as creating decent work, improving livelihoods, and achieving social inclusion in the shift to green economies.

Connection to this news: The first historic decline in coal generation in India does not automatically translate into reduced coal employment or closed mines; managing the social consequences of this structural shift is a key governance challenge for India over the coming decade.

Ember Global Electricity Review and What It Measures

Ember's annual Global Electricity Review provides the most comprehensive independent dataset on electricity generation by fuel type globally. The 2026 edition, covering data for calendar year 2025, tracks electricity from over 80 countries and uses a combination of official government data, utility filings, and satellite analysis.

The report is published as a free, publicly available resource and is widely cited by the IEA, IRENA, and climate policy bodies.
Ember defines "fossil fuel generation" as electricity generated from coal, natural gas, and oil.
The 2025 report found that globally, fossil generation was flat year-on-year (did not increase) for the first time — a distinct finding from the India/China decline, which refers to an absolute fall in fossil output within those countries.
Renewables (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, bioenergy) collectively produced 34% of global electricity in 2025 — crossing coal (33%) for the first time since the early 20th century.

Connection to this news: Ember's methodology and data are the evidentiary basis for the "historic first" claim regarding India and China's fossil fuel decline; understanding the report's scope prevents conflation of electricity sector trends with overall energy (which includes transport, heating, and industrial heat not powered by electricity).

India's Climate Commitments: COP26 Panchamrit Goals

At COP26 in Glasgow (November 2021), India announced five long-term climate targets known as Panchamrit (five nectar-like elements): reaching 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030; meeting 50% of energy requirements from renewables by 2030; reducing total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes by 2030; reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 (from 2005 levels); and achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.

India achieved the milestone of 50% non-fossil installed power capacity in June 2025 — five years ahead of the 2030 NDC schedule.
The 2025 coal generation decline, though modest at 3%, is the most significant signal yet that India's electricity sector is structurally pivoting.
India's renewable energy output rose 22% year-on-year in 2025, while large hydropower generation increased 15%.
India's Panchamrit goals are embedded in its updated 2022 NDC submitted to the UNFCCC.

Connection to this news: The decline in fossil fuel generation — even as electricity demand continued to grow — demonstrates that clean energy additions are now large enough not merely to absorb incremental demand but to actively displace fossil sources, a prerequisite for meeting the Panchamrit targets.

Key Facts & Data

57 TWh: India's coal generation decline in 2025 (approximately 3% year-on-year).
1,322 BU (2024) → 1,283 BU (2025): India's coal electricity generation trajectory.
56 TWh: China's fossil fuel generation decline in 2025.
~70%: Coal's residual share of India's total electricity generation in 2025, despite absolute decline.
22%: Year-on-year increase in India's renewable electricity output in 2025.
15%: Year-on-year increase in India's large hydropower generation in 2025.
34% vs. 33%: Renewables vs. coal share of global electricity in 2025 — renewables ahead for first time in ~100 years.
500 GW: India's non-fossil electricity capacity target by 2030 (Panchamrit / NDC).
2070: India's net-zero emissions target year.
COP26, Glasgow (November 2021): Where Panchamrit goals were announced.
Coal India Limited: World's largest coal producer by volume; supplies ~80% of India's thermal coal.
~500,000: Formal coal mining workers in India (just transition concern).
This century's first simultaneous fossil fuel generation decline in both India and China occurred in calendar year 2025.