What Happened
- A new analysis by the Climate and Community Institute (CCI) found that the US and Israel's initial 14 days of military operations in Iran generated over 5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) — surpassing Iceland's entire annual greenhouse gas emissions of approximately 4.28 million tonnes.
- The emissions breakdown: destroyed civilian infrastructure (~2.4 million tonnes CO2e), burned or destroyed fuel (~1.88 million tonnes CO2e), combat operations fuel consumption (~529,000 tonnes CO2e), with the remainder from military equipment, missiles, and drones.
- Researchers stressed that the 5-million-tonne figure represents only the conflict's initial phase — emissions are expected to escalate sharply as uncontrolled oil infrastructure fires continue, weapons stocks are replenished, and additional naval forces are deployed.
- The study highlighted a systemic blind spot in global climate accounting: military operations and conflict-related emissions are largely absent from national greenhouse gas inventories and are not systematically tracked under the Paris Agreement.
- The US Department of Defense is estimated to be the largest institutional emitter of greenhouse gases in the world; global military activity is estimated to account for approximately 5.5% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions.
Static Topic Bridges
The Military Emissions Gap — Climate Accounting and Reporting Failures
The Paris Agreement (2015) technically removed the explicit exemption for military emissions that existed under the Kyoto Protocol (1997), but it did not mandate their reporting — making military GHG reporting effectively voluntary. The result is what researchers call the "military emissions gap" — a systematic undercount of one of the world's largest emission sources. Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), countries report emissions through National Communications and Biennial Transparency Reports, but military operations (especially in conflict zones) are typically aggregated with other national data or omitted entirely. The US, historically the largest military spender, successfully lobbied for the Kyoto Protocol exemption in 1997 and has maintained the voluntary character of military emissions reporting through subsequent agreements.
- UNFCCC (1992): Framework treaty; 197 parties; requires annual GHG inventories from developed countries, biennial from developing countries
- Kyoto Protocol (1997): First binding emissions reduction commitments; explicitly exempted international aviation, shipping, and military bunker fuels from national inventories
- Paris Agreement (2015): Replaced Kyoto; voluntary NDCs; removed explicit military exemption but did not mandate reporting
- Global military emissions estimate: ~5.5% of global GHG emissions (Scientists for Global Responsibility and CEOBS)
- US DoD annual emissions: Estimated at 51–59 million tonnes CO2e annually from operations alone (pre-conflict baseline)
- Military Emissions Gap project (militaryemissions.org): Documents reporting gaps across 30+ countries
Connection to this news: The Iran conflict emissions analysis exposes the inadequacy of current climate accounting frameworks. The 5+ million tonnes generated in two weeks of conflict adds an invisible spike to global emissions that is never captured in national inventories submitted to the UNFCCC — undermining the accuracy of global climate progress tracking.
War and Environmental Damage — International Humanitarian Law and Ecocide
International law has long recognised environmental protection as a concern during armed conflict, but the protections are incomplete. Article 35(3) of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions (1977) prohibits methods of warfare "intended, or may be expected, to cause widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment." Article 55 prohibits attacks on the natural environment as a means of warfare. However, these provisions have a high threshold and have never been successfully prosecuted. The concept of "ecocide" — defined as "unlawful or wanton acts committed with knowledge that there is a substantial likelihood of severe and either widespread or long-term damage to the environment" — has been proposed as the fifth international crime under the Rome Statute, which currently covers genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and aggression.
- Additional Protocol I (1977), Articles 35(3) and 55: Environmental protection in conflict — "widespread, long-term and severe" damage threshold
- Rome Statute (1998): Establishes the International Criminal Court (ICC); four crimes currently: genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, aggression
- Ecocide proposal: Drafted by an Independent Expert Panel convened by Stop Ecocide International (2021); not yet adopted by ICC member states
- Gulf War (1991) oil fires precedent: Iraq's burning of Kuwaiti oil wells released an estimated 2 billion barrels of oil and generated massive environmental damage — drove attention to wartime environmental destruction
- Environmental Modification Convention (ENMOD, 1977): Prohibits deliberate environmental modification as a weapon of war (distinct from IHL environmental protection)
Connection to this news: The Iran conflict's carbon footprint — dominated by burning oil infrastructure and fuel use — parallels the Gulf War oil well fires. The absence of legal accountability for conflict-generated emissions within climate frameworks points to the need for ecocide legislation and mandatory military emissions reporting to fill the gap between environmental law and IHL.
Carbon Footprint of Conflict — Reconstruction, Infrastructure, and Long-Term Climate Costs
The emissions generated during active warfare represent only a fraction of the total climate cost of conflict. Historical analysis of the Gaza war (2023–24) and the Russia-Ukraine war (2022–present) demonstrated that reconstruction activities — rebuilding destroyed housing, infrastructure, roads, and industrial facilities — generate carbon output comparable to or exceeding wartime emissions. The Gaza case study found that rebuilding destroyed infrastructure could generate between 30 and 40 million tonnes of CO2e over several years. For Iran, where large oil and petrochemical facilities have been damaged, the reconstruction phase will involve energy-intensive industrial rebuilding and the release of stored hydrocarbons from damaged infrastructure — both significant emission sources. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes, has been disrupted — with knock-on effects on global energy systems and carbon-intensive shipping rerouting.
- Strait of Hormuz: Separates Iran from Oman/UAE; approximately 21 million barrels of oil per day (about 20% of global oil trade) transit through it
- Gaza reconstruction estimate: 30–40 million tonnes CO2e (Conflict and Environment Observatory, 2024)
- Ukraine reconstruction: World Bank estimates ~$486 billion needed (2023); reconstruction emissions not yet fully modelled
- Carbon damage valuation: CCI estimated $1.3 billion in climate damage from the two-week Iran bombardment (using social cost of carbon)
- Embedded carbon in weapons: Missile production and military equipment manufacture involve energy-intensive processes — this "embodied carbon" is systematically excluded from conflict emission tallies
Connection to this news: The 5-million-tonne figure for two weeks must be understood as the opening figure in a much longer emissions ledger. For climate negotiators and policymakers, the Iran case reinforces calls for mandatory conflict emissions reporting, inclusion of military emissions in NDCs, and the development of accounting methodologies for wartime and reconstruction emissions.
Key Facts & Data
- Iran conflict emissions (first 14 days): Over 5 million tonnes CO2e (Climate and Community Institute analysis)
- Iceland's annual emissions: ~4.28 million tonnes CO2e — surpassed in two weeks of conflict
- Emissions breakdown: Destroyed infrastructure ~2.4 Mt, burned/destroyed fuel ~1.88 Mt, combat fuel ~529,000 t, remainder from weapons/equipment
- Climate damage estimate: $1.3 billion from two-week bombardment alone (CCI)
- Global military emissions: ~5.5% of global GHG emissions (Scientists for Global Responsibility / CEOBS)
- US DoD: Largest institutional GHG emitter in the world
- Kyoto Protocol (1997): Explicitly exempted military bunker fuels from national GHG inventories
- Paris Agreement (2015): Removed explicit exemption but did not mandate military emissions reporting
- Additional Protocol I (1977), Article 35(3): Prohibits warfare causing "widespread, long-term and severe" environmental damage
- Ecocide: Proposed fifth international crime under Rome Statute — not yet adopted; threshold: "severe and widespread or long-term" environmental damage
- Strait of Hormuz: ~20% of global oil trade; disruption affects global energy emissions and rerouting costs